Seems like a game of chicken.Doubt it. With the headphone jack, it works because Apple also provided the solution (Airpods). Consumers are not left hanging. it's all within Apple's own ecosystem.
With eSIM, Apple is not the carrier. Consumers are at the hand of carriers, which from many have stated everywhere, are not that great in terms of customer service/experience. Besides, eSIM is not new. Look at the Apple Watch cellular, iPhones since the iPhone Xs/XR, Samsung Foldables, Samsung flagships, etc. Yet most carriers are not budging.
And let's say Apple did it with the iPhone 15. Then what? Majority of carriers are not interested in eSIM. And there's China. Do you really think Apple is willing to risk consumers in those markets ending up not buying iPhones?
We will see more carriers deploying 5G sooner than carriers supporting eSIM.
I like the idea of eSIM, and I wish it's more common than what it is now. But unfortunately the telcos think otherwise.
If Apple decides to do it do you think the carrier is going to risk losing new Apple customers?