Been following this for a bit. Disclaimer: one of the three day jobs is working on analytical investment models.
If you look at Spotify's P&L for the last few quarters, they haven't actually managed to make any money. In fact they are driving the business down the toilet pretty hard. At best they have reduced losses. This is obviously not sustainable. So the last time they reduced losses were because they increased prices, which caused further losses as people cancelled subscriptions. They drove up subscription revenue via spending on advertising. This doesn't even close the gap. Here's the plot from Statista
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So what are their options on the floor here. Well they pulled ALL of them in 2023 and managed to actually not make a loss for one entire quarter in 2023. Here's what they did:
- Increase subscription costs. They already did that which was very unpopular.
- Drive advertising. They have reached saturation there.
- Cut costs. They already blew 1500 people out.
It's a crawling rotting corpse of a business. That leaves only one outcome:
- Make a big poo poo about their competitors to drive customers towards them.
And here we are today. While some of what they are saying is accurate, if anyone thinks this is anything more than a corporation trying to break a market because they are utterly failing as a business then you're clearly deluded.
They literally have no options left.
Ultimately they will die because the streaming business is a complete bubble. Only companies with other capital to leverage can enter this market.