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Starting Price of Edition Watch

The STARTING price for the Edition watch will be:

  • Under $1000

    Votes: 4 4.7%

  • $1000-2999

    Votes: 34 40.0%

  • $3000-5999

    Votes: 36 42.4%

  • $6000-10,000

    Votes: 4 4.7%

  • Above $10,000

    Votes: 7 8.2%
  • Total voters
    85
  • Poll closed .
JayLenochiniMac said:
No, he was second guessing his original starting price of $4,999. The solid gold link bracelets are nothing more than a mockup gone viral, and Gruber suggested no such thing.
Click to expand...

Gotcha except let's recap ... To make sure I get his take on this right.

His first prediction is $4,999 - ?
Then changed it to $10,000 - $20,000? And still second-guessing possibly over $20k?

For the same set of officially announced bands for the gold edition?
 
cleirac said:
Mine is, there will be additional surprises - with bands and for Sport, Standard and Edition lineup.
Click to expand...

Highly unlikely. There are already 65 SKUs to start with and Apple never puts all their eggs in one basket (i.e., they'll want to drive sales by introducing additional bands in the future).
 
cleirac said:
Gotcha except let's recap ... To make sure I get his take on this right.

His first prediction is $4,999 - ?
Then changed it to $10,000 - $20,000? And still second-guessing possibly over $20k?

For the same set of officially announced bands for the gold edition?
Click to expand...

I thought the $20k prediction was for the watch with gold band, if there was a gold band. His (revised) prediction for the starting price of the watch was $10k. I'll check his blog and report back later.
 
Night Spring said:
I thought the $20k prediction was for the watch with gold band, if there was a gold band. His (revised) prediction for the starting price of the watch was $10k. I'll check his blog and report back later.
Click to expand...

He did allude to it but his predictions are a confusing mess, including $15K for the Milanese Loop which by technical reason cannot be in gold (it's not magnetic).

Someone told him right off that the models he was looking at could easily be $20K or so.
 
JayLenochiniMac said:
He did allude to it but his predictions are a confusing mess, including $15K for the Milanese Loop which by technical reason cannot be in gold (it's not magnetic).

Someone told him right off that the models he was looking at could easily be $20K or so.
Click to expand...

I just checked his blog, and here are the relevant quotes.

http://daringfireball.net/2015/02/apple_watch_pricing

I now think Edition models will start around $10,000 — and, if my hunch is right about bands and bracelets, the upper range could go to $20,000.

I’m guessing Apple will offer Edition models with gold Link Bracelets for $20,000, and perhaps Milanese Loops for $15,000 and a Leather Loop for around $12,500
Click to expand...

And yes, that friend of his threw out the $20k figure as a typical price of "comparable" gold watches. But Gruber (and perhaps his friend too) seems to be not accounting for the fact that traditional gold watches include fine crafted mechanical movements, while Apple watch is just gold casing around mass produced electronics.
 
JayLenochiniMac said:
Highly unlikely. There are already 65 SKUs to start with and Apple never puts all their eggs in one basket (i.e., they'll want to drive sales by introducing additional bands in the future).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know. With technology, Apple lately plays it as conservative as possible then save it for the next release until they are sure it will be perfect (for critics-it is only incremental, too late changes). I don't know but with bands (and the watch itself), I feel like, it will be one boring event if everything that will be revealed is only the actual release dates, battery-life and prices. They might as well just announced it without the official media event. If there is really nothing big - hardware, software and bands, it will probably just be a glorified event / fashion show hehe (nothing wrong with it, being a fashion conscious myself) with many high-profile celebrities attending the party err event. :D

I am not really expecting too much. But I want something that I have not known yet or already anticipated, lol.
 
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cleirac said:
Gotcha except let's recap ... To make sure I get his take on this right.

His first prediction is $4,999 - ?
Then changed it to $10,000 - $20,000? And still second-guessing possibly over $20k?

For the same set of officially announced bands for the gold edition?
Click to expand...

No, not quite.

He predicted $4,999 for the Edition starting price back in September.
http://daringfireball.net/2014/09/apple_watch
He said he'd already made a "friendly bet" that it would be $9,999. Those statements suggest the range of prices he considered likely back then. He also noted the odd lack of gold link bracelets in the September announcement.

In February, he had second thoughts.
http://daringfireball.net/2015/02/apple_watch_pricing
He decided that $10,000 was a more likely starting price than $5,000. This was for the Edition with the sport band.

He also repeated his expectation for gold bracelets to be announced:
"I’m guessing Apple will offer Edition models with gold Link Bracelets for $20,000, and perhaps Milanese Loops for $15,000 and a Leather Loop for around $12,500."

I would summarize his thinking for the gold Edition with sport band like this: he's been in the $5,000-$10,000 range from September until now. He preferred the low end of the range in September, and had moved to the high end of the range by February.

Both of Gruber's articles are worth reading. Agree or disagree with his reasoning, he explains his thinking pretty well.

(I personally don't expect a gold Milanese loop, for the simple reason that making an 18 kt gold alloy that's magnetic and has the right color doesn't seem feasible to me. And a Milanese loop without a magnetic closure seems like a big step backwards for Apple.)
 
Night Spring said:
I just checked his blog, and here are the relevant quotes.



And yes, that friend of his threw out the $20k figure as a typical price of "comparable" gold watches. But Gruber (and perhaps his friend too) seems to be not accounting for the fact that traditional gold watches include fine crafted mechanical movements, while Apple watch is just gold casing around mass produced electronics.
Click to expand...

Yes, but in the beginning of the article his friend suggested that the existing Edition models would "cost $20,000," causing him to second guess his original estimates.

Therein lies the confusion. $20K would actually be a lowball figure for a solid gold bracelet so I doubt he was thinking solid. Maybe hollow. He earlier suggested that the Milanese Loop would be cheaper than the leather bands for the SS models, and here he's contradicting himself and suggesting a $5K premium just for the non- gold Milanese Loop.
 
That is what I am saying, anything is possible, if he is right (or gotten a tip recently), a gold Milanese loop is not impossible. Even a space gray or black or darker Milanese loop, like a forum member suggested, could be a surprise. Or nice addition.

Oh well, my final take is, still, he is only guessing, as well. :D
 
Night Spring said:
I just checked his blog, and here are the relevant quotes.



And yes, that friend of his threw out the $20k figure as a typical price of "comparable" gold watches. But Gruber (and perhaps his friend too) seems to be not accounting for the fact that traditional gold watches include fine crafted mechanical movements, while Apple watch is just gold casing around mass produced electronics.
Click to expand...

Arrghh, you posted your reply while I was typing mine, saying much the same thing.

There are $20,000+ gold watches that are largely mass produced. The finely-crafted movement is identical to the movements in much cheaper watches.

Some gold watches in this range even have quartz movements. The still have fine dials and mechanical hands, but the guts are mostly electronic.

The very best watches are truly hand-made. They are very limited production runs, and they don't cost a mere $20,000. The prices may have one or two more digits in them.
 
If just the SS Milanese Loop costs 5K that safe Apple is apparently installing in every store better be big! 5K for a SS band? Are you kidding me? He's off his rocker.
 
cleirac said:
That is what I am saying, anything is possible, if he is right (or gotten a tip recently), a gold Milanese loop is not impossible. Even a space gray or black or darker Milanese loop, like a forum member suggested, could be a surprise. Or nice addition.

Oh well, my final take is, still, he is only guessing, as well. :D
Click to expand...

Fyi-I typed this before I saw Jay's post. But, but, but I want all kinds / different varieties of Milanese loop. Maybe, I will just buy the Milanese loop collection (if and only if).

----------
Night Spring said:
I just checked his blog, and here are the relevant quotes.



And yes, that friend of his threw out the $20k figure as a typical price of "comparable" gold watches. But Gruber (and perhaps his friend too) seems to be not accounting for the fact that traditional gold watches include fine crafted mechanical movements, while Apple watch is just gold casing around mass produced electronics.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

----------
JayLenochiniMac said:
It is impossible because gold isn't magnetic.
Click to expand...

I am assuming, gold versions will have a different mechanism. A Milanese loop style has to be only that way via magnetic clasp?
 
It has to be as great looking as the loop. Milanese bracelet, aha. While waiting, I will dig deeper into these stylish fashion bracelet / luxury watch accessories. I will keep them to myself until the 2nd Gen. Promise, I will not make up anymore, silly theories. :D
 
MeFromHere said:
Arrghh, you posted your reply while I was typing mine, saying much the same thing.

There are $20,000+ gold watches that are largely mass produced. The finely-crafted movement is identical to the movements in much cheaper watches.

Some gold watches in this range even have quartz movements. The still have fine dials and mechanical hands, but the guts are mostly electronic.

The very best watches are truly hand-made. They are very limited production runs, and they don't cost a mere $20,000. The prices may have one or two more digits in them.
Click to expand...

I think your summary helped clarify things more, so thanks for that.

And $20k for a watch with Quartz movement? Is the case intricately designed or something?

Truth be told, I've never been in to expensive watches. If I'm paying that much money, I'd rather have fine jewelry. But I guess it's a matter of taste!

----------
Piggie said:
Is leather then?
Click to expand...

Probably has a magnetic layer between two layers of leather.
 
Night Spring said:
And $20k for a watch with Quartz movement? Is the case intricately designed or something?
Click to expand...

Here's a ladies 18K yellow gold watch, quartz movement, gold bracelet, and some small diamonds on the case. Cartier, which I don't think is at quite the same level as Tag Heuer, Rolex, etc.
http://www.authenticwatches.com/wf9001y7.html
$27,300 list, $21,790 from a gray-market web seller. "Usually ships in 8 weeks", which gives them plenty of time to find an authorized dealer with excess stock going a bit cheap. This is a small watch, only 20mm square. Not a lot of gold here.

The quartz movement is nothing special, I suspect. Hours, minutes, seconds; no complications. I think this is the movement:
http://calibercorner.com/quartz/cartier-caliber-157/

Nearly identical watch in rose gold, $35,000 list, $16,775 gray market. This one is in stock and priced to move! ("Order by noon and wear it the next day!")
http://www.authenticwatches.com/cartier-santos-demoiselle-wf9008z8.html

Here are larger ladies watches (26mm square) from the same seller (still Cartier watches):
http://www.authenticwatches.com/dela.html
There's a white gold quartz watch shown for $53,000 list, $43,470 gray.

Same watch in stainless steel (without little diamonds), $4,900 (but discontinued).

When people say Apple CAN'T price very high, and Gruber is smoking crack, and similar comments seen here in recent weeks, it seems to me the same comments ought to apply to watches like these Cartiers and other low-end luxury names. But the watches exist and people must buy them or the sellers would disappear.

I'm not sure Apple will aim this high. They might. Or they might enjoy selling at lower prices and draining some of the crazy money out of the low-end "luxury" watch market. But it's clear to me that there's plenty of precedent (in the watch business) for prices that seem insane to tech geeks.

Or as Gruber said in September,
"But at the same time, there is room for [Apple Watch] to be disruptively low from the perspective of the traditional watch and jewelry world. There’s a massive pricing umbrella in the luxury watch world, and Apple is aiming to take advantage of it."

The last four paragraphs of Benjamin Clymer's article from September are worth re-reading:
http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-apple-watch-review

Clymer (unlike Gruber) is a watch expert.
 
MeFromHere said:
The last four paragraphs of Benjamin Clymer's article from September are worth re-reading:
http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-apple-watch-review

Clymer (unlike Gruber) is a watch expert.
Click to expand...

Exactly. From article: "The other thing that could spell trouble even for the Swiss is Apple's cool factor with the young. At 16, will someone want a Swatch or an Apple watch? At 20, will they want a Hamilton or the Apple Watch 3? At 25 will they want an Omega or an Apple Watch Plus? That should be a very real concern for the Swiss – appealing to a younger generation of buyers who live and breathe Apple."

While the Apple Watch is not a direct competitor to the high-end Swiss watches, Switzerland will be trouble in the long run for the aforementioned reason. The Apple Watch will provide a great disincentive for young people to upgrade to high-end Swiss models once they can afford to do so.
 
Yes, the traditional luxury watchmakers will never be in trouble by the luxury Apple Watch's presence in the market. The rich geeks will have both - the (exotic) rounds traditional luxury timeless pieces and (iconic) squares (for the ages :D), luxury Apple Watch masterpieces. :p
 
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gcooldude86 said:
I'm going with $1000-$2999, hopeful thinking :D
Click to expand...
Just the raw gold costs >1500.

The watch won't be under 5k. People with gold watches want exclusivity, that's why a swiss gold watch cost 15k more than the steel version.
 
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