Thank you for so clearly articulating the existence of the personality cult around Steven Paul Jobs, former CEO of Apple Computer Inc.
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Successor to Steve Uncertainty Hurting AAPL Share Price?
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Thank you for so clearly articulating the existence of the personality cult around Steven Paul Jobs, former CEO of Apple Computer Inc.
I don't think anyone can deny the existence of such a fanatically religious group of people.
The people who want to believe respect for Jobs' work as CEO equates to some fanatical worshipping of the man will of course jump all over your statement. LOL. They can't help themselves. They have this deep seeded need to make everyone conform to their way of doing things. The fact that someone doesn't use their OS or brand drives them crazy. They need psychological help.
Of course they usually see a statement like i just made and claim users of Apple products are the ones with the need to control others. Yet they forget they are trolling the site for Apple users not the other way around. I hope these people find the help they need.
Keep dreaming, the day Jobs is done, a firestorm of previously hidden issues will surface.
Yet the Cult of Apple will transform Jobs into the new Elvis.
There will be a lot of sympathy purchases, designed to keep panic to a minimum as they wake up to realize the golden goose is gone.
No matter who fills the void, there will be the slap of reality to face. Apple will be forced to compete without its consummate sales person.
A cold wind will whip thru the corporation, it is then that the true Apple will be revealed.
Im thrilled to have bought the vast majority of my Apple shares, in the years where it was only approx $20, $30, & $40 per share. Now I can weather the ups and downs without concern. If if really begins to collapse I'll sell and still walk away smiling
Thanks Apple!
Congratulations - you can sell at $300, or $250, or $200, or even $100 and make good profit.
Meanwhile, the people who bought at $320 or higher are saying OMG today.
I would walk away smiling right now, if I were you. The days when Apple was $20 a share would, if you purchased 3000 shares (as I did), net you close to $2 million. That's not really a retirement fund, but it's a step in the right direction.
Otherwise, the words of Benjamin Graham are sage advice (which I have memorized since the crash of 2000):
"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."
"and" is the most important qualifier here... Either you are an investor, who, through aggressive research rather than aggressive (read: haphazard) trading, seeks both safety of principal and an adequate (not irrational) return, or you are a speculator who listens to the wind and reads the tea leaves, chasing high returns without regard for protection of principal... the absence of the latter of which will completely destroy your portfolio.
Apple as a company is not any longer dependent on Steve Jobs for its success, but the speculation-driven price of its stock is very dependent on Steve Jobs and the brand perception is inextricably linked to his image. They'll continue to thrive, most certainly, as a company well after he is gone, but the "sex" factor of the stock which makes it valued at over six times book value (which is astronomical even if you account for discounted cash flows five quarters forward)... $320 a share is a ludicrous price to pay, and institutions know this—but they couldn't make money out the other side if they told you that, so they don't.
My advice is to take your earnings, be shrewd, and diversify into real investments that have a reasonable rate of return. Chasing after abnormal returns is extremely foolish for a very simple reason: Any number times zero is still zero. Invest in something with a reasonable and relatively predictable return, sit on it, and let compounding interest work its magic over time... and you will come out ahead, way ahead, of the morons who periodically keep vaporizing their principal, resetting the counter to zero, never bothering to calculate the effects of those losses compounded over time.
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Well there are people desperate to see Apple's demise. Nothing new. These are the same people who get worked up every 10 years when some malware show sup on the mac.
Of course these people are ignoring financial news about Greece and dropping oil prices to name a couple things.
The way people are spinning things you would think the rest of the market is rising meteorically and AAPL is dropping.
Some analysis:
Stocks: NASDAQ Data Confirmed a Significant Downtrend
No one has changed AAPL's target price. It is still $450 or greater currently.
The other trend I've noticed is speculation from the "experts" is a poor performance prediction before each earnings report from Apple. The stock drops and then the report comes out and blows everyone away. "They sold how many ipads?" And it isn't just iOS devices. Sales of Macs continue to grow while the PC industry overall continues to see decreased sales.
Of course these people are ignoring financial news about Greece and dropping oil prices to name a couple things.
The way people are spinning things you would think the rest of the market is rising meteorically and AAPL is dropping.
Some analysis:
Stocks: NASDAQ Data Confirmed a Significant Downtrend
No one has changed AAPL's target price. It is still $450 or greater currently.
The other trend I've noticed is speculation from the "experts" is a poor performance prediction before each earnings report from Apple. The stock drops and then the report comes out and blows everyone away. "They sold how many ipads?" And it isn't just iOS devices. Sales of Macs continue to grow while the PC industry overall continues to see decreased sales.
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As long as the successor of Mr. Jobs isn't Steve Ballmer, or someone related to him, Apple should be just fine.
Windows 8 is Windows 3.1 for the 21st century
You got excited about Windows 8? Yeah it's pretty I guess. It seems to be a bunch of widgets layered over Windows 7, kind of like a new version of Windows 3.1. I think it would provide too much distraction for me. It seems perfect if you want to be reminded what photos you already have (no thanks), the people you have in your address book (not really), your email count (maybe but I'll check it myself later, thank you) or bombarded with chat requests, Facebook noise and Twitter stuff (all no thanks). I use all those things but I really don't want them in my face all the time. Likewise, since Windows' foothold has always been in the workplace, I can't help but wonder how many businesses will want their employees bombarded with all these distractions. I bet many will run the other way when it's time to upgrade. Who wants their employees working on a computer whose primary focus is social media - unless of course they are in the social media business (in which case they use Macs anyway).
You got excited about Windows 8? Yeah it's pretty I guess. It seems to be a bunch of widgets layered over Windows 7, kind of like a new version of Windows 3.1. I think it would provide too much distraction for me. It seems perfect if you want to be reminded what photos you already have (no thanks), the people you have in your address book (not really), your email count (maybe but I'll check it myself later, thank you) or bombarded with chat requests, Facebook noise and Twitter stuff (all no thanks). I use all those things but I really don't want them in my face all the time. Likewise, since Windows' foothold has always been in the workplace, I can't help but wonder how many businesses will want their employees bombarded with all these distractions. I bet many will run the other way when it's time to upgrade. Who wants their employees working on a computer whose primary focus is social media - unless of course they are in the social media business (in which case they use Macs anyway).
Thank you! One of the only sane responses on this thread. If you also factor in the desperately weak economic situation, as I did and have been voted down on, you're looking at a sharp decline across the board when the markets as a whole tank. If you think the markets as a whole aren't going to shed 20% once real inflation spurred on by an ever weakening dollar, the overall effect of oil even remaining at 2.90 as the national average, the horrible jobs situation and an ever declining real property market - you're bat#### crazy!
Monolith companies trading at 15 to 20 times earnings in this environment do not have unlimited upside potential they will fall in line eventually with what is a much more reasonable valuation. If you have a profit take your profit end off the table. The markets are not a lottery ticket or a trip to a casino. This is why I hate that every Joe Blow is so heavily invested in securities when 4/5 of them couldn't tell you the difference between Earnings and EBITDA, Long Term vs. Current Liabilities etc. etc. etc.
You can vote the people down all you want who have some modicum of sense, but you can also bet your ass it's all of you who are so heavily invested in Apple, that are going to be the first people whining on this forum about how you lost all your gains.
Apple is overbought simple as that. Google is overbought simple as that. There are much better places to put your money for growth over the long haul.
I'd also add that any investment decisions (shrewd ones anyway) are based not only on the items mentioned - but also what the overall strategy/goal/timeframe you have.
Will Apple stock take a hit when Steve Jobs is no longer CEO - I think it's safe yes.
The question becomes how much and for how LONG.
Then the next question is - how long (if ever) will the gains make up for that loss and/or exceed it.
And how long do you want to hold onto the stock. Meaning - if you're in your 60s now - that hit could come at a bad time with the stock gain not happening when you need it.
If you're in your 20s-40s - maybe you'll hold onto it because you have time to see where it goes.
There's no magic bullet answer because everyone's situation is relative. Again - it's about overall strategy and personal financial planning.
Some of the posts here are just plain ignorant. Amusing. But ignorant. And also egocentric.
Will Apple stock take a hit when Steve Jobs is no longer CEO - I think it's safe yes.
The question becomes how much and for how LONG.
Then the next question is - how long (if ever) will the gains make up for that loss and/or exceed it.
And how long do you want to hold onto the stock. Meaning - if you're in your 60s now - that hit could come at a bad time with the stock gain not happening when you need it.
If you're in your 20s-40s - maybe you'll hold onto it because you have time to see where it goes.
There's no magic bullet answer because everyone's situation is relative. Again - it's about overall strategy and personal financial planning.
Some of the posts here are just plain ignorant. Amusing. But ignorant. And also egocentric.
You do realize that a Roth IRA is just a type of account where you are not taxed on capital gains after selling shares, right? You can own any investment, be it Apple, equity options, currencies or anything else you can imagine, within an IRA. Are you this clueless?
dont beleive the blogs
I dont think you can say the "poor" share price performance of AAPL was due to the Steve Jobs news, but due to poor sentiment regarding the economic soft patch caused by the supply chain disruptions prompted by the Japan earhtquake (particularly effecting AAPL by slowing its sales due to lack of IT components) . Typically tech stock tend to perform best in cyclical upturns, hence thier weakness in an economic soft patch.
Also looking at the MSCI US IT index, since end-April it is down 9.3%, AAPL is down 9.9% over the same period - this is very little difference an hence really just reflects to mood of investors towards the IT sector - the minor underperformance could be argued that it is a much more liquid stock than others in the index and therefore much easier to sell.
The recent price weakness is an opportunity to buy, risk appetite is likely to recover towards the fall.
I dont think you can say the "poor" share price performance of AAPL was due to the Steve Jobs news, but due to poor sentiment regarding the economic soft patch caused by the supply chain disruptions prompted by the Japan earhtquake (particularly effecting AAPL by slowing its sales due to lack of IT components) . Typically tech stock tend to perform best in cyclical upturns, hence thier weakness in an economic soft patch.
Also looking at the MSCI US IT index, since end-April it is down 9.3%, AAPL is down 9.9% over the same period - this is very little difference an hence really just reflects to mood of investors towards the IT sector - the minor underperformance could be argued that it is a much more liquid stock than others in the index and therefore much easier to sell.
The recent price weakness is an opportunity to buy, risk appetite is likely to recover towards the fall.
That's a clever post. Apple isn't Steve, Apple will go on...I just hope for my investment sake that it will only grow so i can make a return on my money.
I mean to get back to this topic a lot earlier but just found the time.
So, Apple finished +9.98 (3.17%) today. I also noticed that the Dow is up 109.63 (0.91%) and the market in general is up in today's rally. I am left to wonder how well AAPL finished today had to do with this uncertainty about Steve's future at Apple or more to do with the market as a whole. Any takers?
So, Apple finished +9.98 (3.17%) today. I also noticed that the Dow is up 109.63 (0.91%) and the market in general is up in today's rally. I am left to wonder how well AAPL finished today had to do with this uncertainty about Steve's future at Apple or more to do with the market as a whole. Any takers?
The S&P Information Technology index was up 1.95%, AAPL is part of this index - So AAPL beat the IT sector too - Good news in the markets yesterday (existing home sales beat expectations and the Greece problems look a little closer to being resolved) boosted confidence, hence the mentality of traders was to go out and buy more cyclical stock - the IT sector being a classic early economic cycle outperformer. AAPL likely benefited from this good news and traders looking for a route into buying the IT sector may have chosen AAPL because of its successful growth story.
Other drivers of the outperformance could have been due news that the Iphone 5 will have a faster chip, or Asia app store downloads have surged - looking at my bloomberg terminal they seem to be to two key potential price drivers other than the good economic annoucements (after a round of bad ones)
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That "advice" is worth exactly what readers are paying for it. Nothing. Aapl is dirt cheap at the moment and anyone who understands investments (as opposed to simply quoting Graham) should know that.
Avatar74 said:
That "advice" is worth exactly what readers are paying for it. Nothing. Aapl is dirt cheap at the moment and anyone who understands investments (as opposed to simply quoting Graham) should know that.
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The mere fact that there are trolls on this site gushing about Windows Beta8 says everything you need to know about how worried msft really is about the demise of its flagship product.
dolph0291 said:
The mere fact that there are trolls on this site gushing about Windows Beta8 says everything you need to know about how worried msft really is about the demise of its flagship product.