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Successor to Steve Uncertainty Hurting AAPL Share Price?

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The main downward force on Apple's stock price is a lack of clarity around Steve Jobs' successor and questions about how long he will remain at his current post, according to a pair of articles today examining the performance of Apple's stock over the past few months. AAPL is down more than 2% year-to-date, and is down more than 8% since WWDC began.

Henry Blodget at Business Insider:
In a way, the situation Apple finds itself in is akin to an impending CEO retirement--without a successor having been named. In such "lame duck" periods, companies can become paralyzed, as managers focus more on their own future and political stature and uncertainty and less on the business.

And, in Apple's case, unfortunately, the situation is even worse: No one knows whether Steve will return, or when, or even when the question of his return will finally be put to rest. So the company is in a sort of perpetual purgatory.
Rougemont, a contributor at investor haven Seeking Alpha, agrees, noting "this concern is already discounted in the stock."

There may be another, less Steve-related explanation. Last week, there was some extraordinary downward movement on Thursday, on a day without significant bad news. Philip Elmer-Dewitt at Apple 2.0 took a look at weekly options set to expire on Friday as a possible explanation for the sudden plunge.
Among the dwindling numbers of retail Apple investors, there were the usual cries of market manipulation and calls for reform of the weekly options markets, which some believe have become the tail that wags the underlying stock.
Regardless of the reason behind the drop, some view the price dip as a buying opportunity.

Both Horace Dediu at Asymco and Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross believe this drop is a buying opportunity, with Zaky assigning a "buy" recommendation for any price between $300 and $320, with a $500 price target:
Because of the market's short-term blindness to this obvious reality, we find it prudent to put a strong-buy rating on the stock if it so happens to trade under $300 during a potential brutal summer correction.
Apple just closed at $315, down a point and a half on the day.

Article Link: Successor to Steve Uncertainty Hurting AAPL Share Price?
 

shadowbird423

macrumors 6502
Sep 8, 2009
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142
Chapel Hill
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Buy is all I can say. Buy.
 
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Mattie Num Nums

macrumors 68030
Mar 5, 2009
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Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

Buy is all I can say. Buy.

Not very good financial advice. Anyone that gambles on uncertainty is heading towards failure.
 
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ratzzo

macrumors 6502a
Apr 20, 2011
826
35
Madrid
I had actually noticed AAPL stock going down a little bit over these days. While no one can tell it's precisely because of Steve Job's health, it's pretty likely that when he decides to resign in favor of someone else, stock will plunge.

Apple's main challenge is how said successor will lead the company, Steve's shadow is a big one to overcome.
 
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ten-oak-druid

macrumors 68000
Jan 11, 2010
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This is in part due to the overall market. See these dips as time to buy, instead of being concerned.

I think another part of the problem is having to deal with the legal costs to stop Samsung from such blatant copying of Apple products.

As for Steve's successor, once people realize Apple is not going to hire a Steve Ballmer type, they wil realize the company is not going to fail when Jobs retires.
 
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Rodimus Prime

macrumors G4
Oct 9, 2006
10,136
4
I have said to before. SJ needs to step down and put someone else in.
he can still and should have an active role but not as the CEO.
Take the hit now to stock prices while they are good and not take an even larger hit when he dies. Things are good and him still being active in the company would protect it.

SJ is good at marketing but I honestly do not see him good for CEO stuff. I would not be surprised if a good part of the day to day stuff was already off load to Tim. Just give Tim full control to really steer the ship and repair the many many bridges Jobs has burned.
 
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-=XX=-Nephilim

macrumors 6502a
Feb 1, 2009
674
0
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!
 
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Hmmm...my prediction for Steve's replacement will be...an intelligent, capable, person in their 40's...no, make that 50's. Yes, this will be the chosen one.

Seriously, Steve Jobs is wonderful and his replacement will undoubtedly be a stellar choice. Apple's gonna be fine.
 
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Mattie Num Nums

macrumors 68030
Mar 5, 2009
2,834
0
USA
This is in part due to the overall market. See these dips as time to buy, instead of being concerned.

Has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with the fact that Apple is completely changing the course of the ship without anyone knowing who is going to be captaining the ship. Apples move may be great but it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it. Uncertainty and Apple secrecy are no longer going to be a driving force in keeping Apples stock high. I think a lot of investors are feeling burned by the fact that they have no idea what their investments are really going to. Apple will recover of course but for someone to be blindly putting their money into an investment such as Apple, its high risk, high reward.


Gambling on uncertainty is also the way to quick riches.

Famous last words of every single person whos been bit by a Ponzi or a bad stock investment. If getting rich quick was a valid option, everyone would be rich. Its better to gamble your livelihood on something that is going to mature in time and give you better tax options.
 
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silusesMac

macrumors newbie
Jun 23, 2010
28
0
Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim
 
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Mattie Num Nums

macrumors 68030
Mar 5, 2009
2,834
0
USA
Should've cashed in when it was at $330! Damn! :D

Love your sig btw!

In relation to your answer though, better get ready to pay hefty taxes. When I cashed portions of my Apple stocks I owed close to 35k in taxes.


Having to fill in Steve's shoes is going to be a big thing since he was really brought up the company and they need someone who will not bring it down. I wonder is Woz could do the job or Tim

I don't think Woz really is interested in what Steve has turned Apple into. Its goes totally against who Woz is really. I think the most likely replacement for Steve will come outside of the company.
 
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spiderman0616

macrumors 68040
Aug 1, 2010
3,762
4,151
It's all about Apple running out of steam - fact obvious wherever you look at it...

1. Lion - although I will be sticking with OS X, quite frankly, Microsoft Windows 8 demos made me more excited...

2. iPad - while OKish device it has reached its peak and it is on its way down from now on due to huge number of equally good or better competitors flooding the market.

3. iPhone - see above...

4. Macs - while great machines they are hugely overpriced and might not be as easy sell as they used to be due to horrible economic situation that will only get worse.

5. And finally, yes, Steve is on his way out...

All this = stock going down and it won't stop going down for quite some time!

Almost none of what you just said is true except for that Steve is on his way out. All CEOs have to leave at some point, whether they die or retire. And no, Apple will not have Steve Jobs anymore at some point. But neither will any other company. When he goes, the whole industry loses him, not just Apple. And Apple will most likely get a very good replacement---they are too smart not to.
 
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Mattie Num Nums

macrumors 68030
Mar 5, 2009
2,834
0
USA
Almost none of what you just said is true except for that Steve is on his way out. All CEOs have to leave at some point, whether they die or retire. And no, Apple will not have Steve Jobs anymore at some point. But neither will any other company. When he goes, the whole industry loses him, not just Apple. And Apple will most likely get a very good replacement---they are too smart not to.

You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.
 
Comment

ten-oak-druid

macrumors 68000
Jan 11, 2010
1,980
0
The best first investment is savings. Get a savings account and put money away each month. Once you get a few thousand you will be protective of it. But you need a separate account from the one you use to pay bills. That one will never grow. It will run a steady average. You need one that only gets deposits and no withdrawals.

People say to be aggressive but the truth is you want some cash built up to make a good investment when the time is right. When the economy dips you want money to buy stock cheap to make money when the rebound comes. You are in that case actually playing the dollar rather than the stock.

And the experts tell you what will be good for them, not you. Take the talk of gold. Right now is not the time to buy gold. The price is high. They get your cheap dollar now and spend it later when the value is returned. The time to buy gold is when it is cheap.
 
Comment

thelonelylimo

macrumors 6502
Oct 23, 2010
487
18
Ohio
I had actually noticed AAPL stock going down a little bit over these days. While no one can tell it's precisely because of Steve Job's health, it's pretty likely that when he decides to resign in favor of someone else, stock will plunge.

Apple's main challenge is how said successor will lead the company, Steve's shadow is a big one to overcome.

Woz!
 
Comment

ouimetnick

macrumors 68030
Aug 28, 2008
2,735
2,814
Beverly, Massachusetts
All I can say is for a guy on medical leave, it must not be for much if he can be rehearsing and giving all these keynotes. With that said, he still looks frail and unhealthy when I see him on stage. Very gaunt looking. :(
 
Comment

ten-oak-druid

macrumors 68000
Jan 11, 2010
1,980
0
Has nothing to do with the market and everything to do with the fact that Apple is completely changing the course of the ship without anyone knowing who is going to be captaining the ship. Apples move may be great but it won't be great if a bumbling bafoon is running it. Uncertainty and Apple secrecy are no longer going to be a driving force in keeping Apples stock high. I think a lot of investors are feeling burned by the fact that they have no idea what their investments are really going to. Apple will recover of course but for someone to be blindly putting their money into an investment such as Apple, its high risk, high reward.

Wrong. I've watched Apple go up and down and most of the stocks are going with along in the same direction. It is in part the market. Not completely about the market but to say the market has nothing to do with the fluctuations is wrong. I watch my investments.
 
Comment

SandynJosh

macrumors 68000
Oct 26, 2006
1,652
2
Have you worked your ass off for Apple today?

Steve will never leave Apple. His plasticised corpse will confront each departing employee with the challenging pre-recorded demand, "Have you worked your ass off for Apple today?

Only the "truth" as determined by the iCloud AI will open the exit door. Only the "truth" will get you free.

To the Nervous Nellies that think the Apple CEO position holds the same economic sway as with other companies, have no idea of the unique structural differences at Apple. Jobs has been cloned rather well and upper management are all like Star Wars Storm Troopers.
 
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spiderman0616

macrumors 68040
Aug 1, 2010
3,762
4,151
You're looking at this as a consumer and not as an investor. Apple hasn't really done anything lately that gives a long term investor (those are the ones companies really want) a reason to buy and stick around.

I doubt you are going to find any investors out there who think iPad is on its way down.
 
Comment
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