iPhone 12 launched in 2020, and its third year in a lineup was 2022. This means iPhone 12 leaves the lineup when 15 launches next month.
iPhone 13 mini will get cut this year just as 12 mini was cut last year while regular 12 got to stay for the 2022 lineup.
iPhones 15, 15 Plus, 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max + 14, 14 Plus, 13 and SE 2022 make up the 2023 lineup.
If Apple's significant delays in getting SEv4 out the door cause the SEv3 to get dropped before the SEv4 comes out, there is a decent chance they can keep the 13 mini around.
1. The 12 mini was a 'first cut' at going that form factor. It is a little too thin and the battery life was a common review complaint. The 13 mini did better. Battery life wasn't stellar , but it was good.
Apple could cut down on the BTO configurations ( get rid of half the colors , and go to 1-2 storage configurations ).
The 'mini' variant sells in relatively low enough volume really don't want to have more than one variant of them. iPhone 14 and 15 don't really bring in another 'mini' to compete with the 13 era model.
2. A cut to the 12 Mini price before iPhone SEv3 update could fully sell through its first year service life wouldn't have helped. Again if there is zero SE update coming through all of 2024 .... a lower priced 13 Mini really isn't going to 'cut into' any iPhone SE refresh sales ... because there is no refresh.
If Apple put the 13 mini at $529 and iPhone SE pragmatically under $400 (for many retailers) there would still be a between them. [ Even easier if the 'plain' 13 only drops down to $629 so a gap above also. ]
Part of the 13 mini's unit sales problems is the current price. It is kind of high for its age. ( SEv3 is going to be in a very similar boat all during 2024 also. ) . If the 13 mini goes away and the SEv3 selling price goes down then there is decent chance Apple will have lowered their aggregate selling price. ( Apple can play games cranking up the newest iPhone Pro prices even higher to try to blunt that offset , but that likely will be limited in effectiveness.)
3. If Apple is out hunting for cheaper displays from secondary OLED vendors then if keep the chassis active they could do a iPhone SE ( based on mini ) and iPhone SE Plus ( based on 12-13 frame). Three pairs of plux/max across a wide price range.
Apple constructs this 'norm' that folks should pay more for bigger screen. But then at the lowest end of the line up they want to abandon that.
I think technology to "do better" with the limited sized battery in the "mini" format probably will work better in 2025 than it did in 2020 . It was just 'early' and the tech to compensate pushed the price up too high to hit the bulk of the folks in that market.
If Apple is highly focused on just selling fewer iPhones at higher prices , then they'll go with hallowed out line up at the bottom end. I won't be surprised if Apple kills off the 13 mini. But iPhone sales are flattening. The market it getting more mature. Herding folks into more expensive phones over time is only going to get harder to do. ( the buying cycles are already getting longer).