Supply Chain Indicators Point to Poor February for Apple

[Ryth]

True, we'll have to see actual earnings, but supply chain is trackable, and coming off last Q's report, not hard to believe a flat or neg #. Some here might revel in this, I don't. I like tech, I like Apple. I own Apple from early on. But Tim Cook's tenure hasn't had too many bright spots. No one is kicking Apple off it's pedestal, it's falling off like Humpty Dumpty. Hopefully, TimCo have good product to counter Samsung, et al for the spring gift season.

As for "lack of innovation between '01 and '07 the iPod was steadily being updated and upgraded. Apple went from a 5GB player to color screen to video, not to mention sub-models like the mini, nano, and shuffle to keep things interesting. So your argument there doesn't really hold water. Honestly, what has Apple done to the iPhone or iOS recently to maintain the "wow" factor or at least keep things fresh? Answer as a tech fan, not a fanboy.

Supply chain "that we know of" is trackable.

We have no clue if they have swapped vendors, have taken things internal to their own vendor/manufacturers, etc.

There was one a few years ago that had their orders down big time. Reason was they swapped manufacturers and moved orders to a new one. Remember many of these vendors are under NDA's and if they just got 'new' work for new parts, they sure aren't going to risk it leaking.

That's why Tim says take everything with a grain of salt when you go by this stuff.

 

[DaffyDuck]

Steve VS Tim

In my opinion, Steve cared about the end user. He wanted to wow us. I feel Tim's top focus is on optimizing the supply chain so Apple will make more profit and investors will be happy. The problem is that the strategy doesn't seem to be having the desired effect. Apple is making a lot of money, sure, but they are undeniably slipping in brand loyalty. I've had every single iPhone up to the iPhone 5. I was an iOS 6 beta tester and began to wonder about the company when I saw how bad Apple maps was. At that time people just said to wait because it was still beta. Yeah, a good mapping system is literally worth billions of dollars. You can just fix it up in a few months with a room full of programmers. Hopefully Tim's restructuring will help the company but they have lost me for now as an iPhone user. I will continue with the iPad but I'll be keeping tabs on how 3rd party apps for Android tablets are coming along.

 

[charlitos]

Then you have to re read because R&D and equipment managers jobs are not designed to meet any manufacturing demand

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Exactly, they only talk about sales when a milestone is met, nothing more

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Any source for that figure or it is one of those "analyst" estimations?

I wonder why would anyone hire equipment managers and workers to improve automated production? Why would a company invest their time, efforts and money into something that does not translate directly into better efficiency in their production line? Ultimately why would this even be a concern or what incentive has TMSC or Foxconn to accelerate/improve productions if the demand for their services is lowering?

 

[3dayslater]

If Apple made some leaps in customer service, they could do their brand loyalty a lot of good. Quality control has been a bit slack recently - particularly with system software. Responding more positively, even proactively, to customer requests for help would go a long way to building bridges with existing customers.

People may be prepared to pay top dollar, but only if you offer them good service, good quality items and the assurance that your custom is valued. That's what a strong brand is about.

I've got a lot of Apple equipment, but I'm noticing more and more issues with it, meaning I'm having to put more effort into maintenance. I preferred it when "it just work(ed)". But Apple's attitude over the last couple of years does not make me feel like a valued customer. And with other companies arguably catching up with Apple's lead in the market, it makes sense for customers to start shopping around a little more. I've certainly found myself doing so.

I'm right there with ya regarding Apple's customer service. It seems to me that I'm getting a lot of scripted tech support. It's gotten to the place where I know that it's not really worth going to a genius or calling tech support because I pretty much know the drill that they would put the product through...which seems to more and more lead to "reinstall the applications" which more and more leads to "reinstall the operating system."

That seems like a drastic response to some little glitches. I can't reinstall the operating system every time my computer starts doing something funky.

 

[Oletros]

I wonder why would anyone hire equipment managers and workers to improve automated production?

To improve manufacturing processes and need less workforce

 

[Michael Scrip]

blame the iOS... it's lacking (IMO).

I dunno... Apple sold 47 million iOS phones last quarter... and 22 million iOS tablets last quarter too.

Obviously somebody's happy with iOS...

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Supply chain "that we know of" is trackable.

We have no clue if they have swapped vendors, have taken things internal to their own vendor/manufacturers, etc.

True, but -15% is a large#. Apple might have switched some vendors, but not all. You only need to track a few parts to get a good picture. This report, taken as part of an aggregate of all analysts estimates, makes it's hard not to overlook.

As I said, we'll have to wait and see the actual numbers, but most objective people see that Apple is stumbling, and Cook's credibility currently is no better than any of the analysts following Apple.

 

[hestroy]

The Guardian newspaper (UK) had a great article this weekend explaining why Apple are in decline. There stock is down 40% in 6 months and they are not doing anything new or innovative that has the wow factor in recent years. They are not disappearing anytime soon but they are losing brand loyalty as people do want quality but also something new. If you have stock I would be tempted to ditch it! Buy it again when its at its lowest as im sure Apple will bounce back in years to come.

I DON'T want anything new. I'm pretty happy with recent products.

 

[GregD]

Pretty obvious that this was going to happen. Although the stores are always packed im guessing less people willing to buy.

When is the next apple event anyway? usually an apple event in March and we're nearly half way in.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

In my opinion, Steve cared about the end user.

Jobs didn't care about the end user anymore than a politician cares about a constituent. Both are a means to an end. A good politician and CEO, however, make one feel like they care though. Make no mistake, they just want you to buy what they are selling. Jobs was terrific creating products and then convincing people they needed it. Cook doesn't have that imagination or charisma. He's more of a bean counter guy.

 

[ChrisTX]

That's what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket.

Agreed, not a fan of Apple releasing their entire product portfolio in one sitting.

 

[GregD]

Jobs didn't care about the end user anymore than a politician cares about a constituent. Both are a means to an end. A good politician and CEO, however, make one feel like they care though. Make no mistake, they just want you to buy what they are selling. Jobs was terrific creating products and then convincing people they needed it. Cook doesn't have that imagination or charisma. He's more of a bean counter guy.

Yea pretty much, I wish jony was leading the company to be honest but think he will always be a creator not a ceo.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

When is the next apple event anyway? usually an apple event in March and we're nearly half way in.

March is when the 3 of the last 4 10" iPads were released, but seems that has shifted to the fall, so big ? if Apple will announce anything big this spring or not. It's very dangerous for Apple to release everything in the Fall though b/c people only have so much $ to spend on gadgets at one time. When it was spread out it was at least mentally more palatable to buy "one of each."

 

[hestroy]

goodbye apple, hello samsung. this is what happens when you sit on your ass and let competitors catch up to you.

This is ********. Could you explain how exactly competitors catched up to Apple? I'm affraid you can't. Or show me some PC that is at least close to iMac. Or some system that is at least close to MacOSX... Or some phone that is as fast as iPhone.

Or you can buy some pretty PC from Samsung. Do you have one already?

 

[SvK]

Jeez,

You don't invent the "Typewriter" every year,
You don't invent the PC every year.
You don't invent the SmartPhone every year,
You don't the Tablet every year.

see where Im going with this?

Let's take the PC (IBM, Mac); once it was invented and slowly but surely became a household item from 1980 onwards......that model STOOD ( and simply became faster more powerful ) for 25 years (!)

Then came the Iphone / iPad revolution which quickly made a PC unnecessary for many tasks........now we will see that model of computing become "faster more powerful" for the next say 10-15 years before the next thing.....

.......which would be...holograms or computers embedded in body, I don't know......

but it drives me crazy that very stupid people think major milestones in computing should be invented on a yearly basis.

fools.

best,
SvK

 

[LordVic]

not. apple success is measured by its PROFIT, not stock price. PROFIT is the air companies breathe.

Absolutely. But this is the thing that has people and investors worried. and at this point, Apple should be worried about Profit and not the investors.

I dont think it's some super deal, but Apple might see it's first decrease in profit in a long time if the reports about lower sales are true.

Apple last Quarter saw their profit margins shrink. They had record Revenues, But their profits were the same as the quarter below. This indicates higher costs, lower margins, and higher volume.

What happens if you remove the Higher volume, which is about what I got from the "chains". if Margins are the same (which they wont be, since many apple products got a price cut in the last month), costs are the same (speculation point), but Volume is lesser, it' is a very realist expectation that Profit's might drop from their stagnant 14.0 Billion.

will apple and it's investors be happy with huge revenues, but only 7 billion in profit? after the growth they had seen?

is this a trend to look towards in the future or just a bad quarter? it brings for the first time in YEARS question of future growth

 

[Michael Scrip]

My point is samsung is starting to beat Apple in sales of these products. Apple needs to up their game and come out with some game changing IOS stuff before they start losing more share to samsung.

Samsung is the volume leader in smartphone sales. No doubt about that.

But is sales volume the thing you want from a company?

Samsung sold 63 million smartphone last quarter... but less than 1/4 of them were advanced flagship phones (Galaxy SIII, Galaxy Note, etc...)

That means the bulk of their sales are cheaper crappier phones that probably run horribly and/or are still running Gingerbread. That doesn't really excite me.

It's great that Samsung can move a lot of units... but sales volume doesn't really say a lot about the strength of a company.

Personally... I'd rather see a company sell more "great" things rather than a lot of "junk" things.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Jeez,

You don't invent the "Typewriter" every year,
You don't invent the PC every year.
You don't invent the SmartPhone every year,
You don't the Tablet every year.

Agree and disagree. True, you can't have a revolution every year or the tech world would look like a 3rd world nation run by factions and there would be perpetual consumer confusion.

But... technology is accelerating at a faster past than any other time in history. Once upon a time not too long ago a company could keep a model for two years and consumers accepted it. No more. Consumers expect and crave change (see: History of Palm and Palm OS).

Apple's iOS is largely unchanged since 1.0 even though its use has gone from mostly consuming content to a mix of consuming and creating like a regular computer. Then you have Apple's continued "one size fits all" mantra as-if there was no other competition w/ brighter displays, more RAM, etc.

If you need more evidence I give you Andy Inhatko's recent defection to the S III. You can't say he's not a huge Apple fan, and he's also been an iPhone user from the start and steadily dismissed Android until now. When pundits like him switch Apple needs to take notice they are doing something wrong.

 

[LordVic]

Samsung is the volume leader in smartphone sales. No doubt about that.

But is sales volume the thing you want from a company?

Samsung sold 63 million smartphone last quarter... but less than 1/4 of them were advanced flagship phones (Galaxy SIII, Galaxy Note, etc...)

That means the bulk of their sales are cheaper crappier phones that probably run horribly and/or are still running Gingerbread. That doesn't really excite me.

It's great that Samsung can move a lot of units... but sales volume doesn't really say a lot about the strength of a company.

Personally... I'd rather see a company sell more "great" things rather than a lot of "junk" things.

but on the flip side (playing devils advocate)

Apple only sells 1 "premium" current model. There's no choice, no options. if you can't afford their premium product, you cant afford their product. there is no choice in the matter. you get the exact hardware, software and platform they give you in one device.
They might not get the volume, so they're reliant on margins and brand loyalty.

what happens when thats not enough? The point that I think samsung has made, is that people are different. We're all "unique and beautiful snowflakes". a 4" phone for you, might not nice for your mom. So your mom MUST sacrifice what she wants just to use an Apple, while paying a premium price for a device she doesn't necessarily enjoy using.

Samsung is taking the shotgun approach. Sure their margins diminish on the lower end, volume sales side, with some possible weaker performances. But hey, those who want to only spend $150 and buy a low end phone for the 2 phone calls a day they make can, while senior executive who needs a pocket computer can spend the $650 and have top of the line 10" phone.

While the average buyer looks at the iphone and says "is this what i want?" and if they hesitate for any minute because it possibly doesn't fit them qutie enough, Samsung has enough options so that if one samsung device doesn't fit them, There WILL be another one that does. Apple doesn't give that option. if the iphone doesn't fit what they want... take it or leave it


This doesn't even include what are self perceived "qualitative" issues you threw at samsung with 'cheap" and 'crappy', many of which are biased and unsubstantiated.

I'm not saying that Apple's products aren't damn well made and of good quality, but they really have NOT lately done anything to say they are significantly better built than anyone else. chocie of "metal v plastic" doesn't mean one is better quality than the other, and believing this alone is pretty... ignorant.

 

[UnfetteredMind]

The quote I think best summarises this is that Google is getting better at hardware faster than Apple is getting better at offering services.

What hardware is Google making? I know they have their Nexus products, but those are all through other parties. I guess they now own Motorola and are working on their next phone rev (not sure when that is due out). I know of Google Glass and self-driving car projects although I'm not sure if they'll produce the former and I believe the goal is to sell the technology/package to automobile manufacturers for the latter. Others I'm missing?

 

[Chupa Chupa]

It's great that Samsung can move a lot of units... but sales volume doesn't really say a lot about the strength of a company.

Well it does when those sales come at the expense of iPhone sales. The bottom line is there are a lot more people now choosing Samsung phones rather than the iPhone and that is trouble for Apple. The iPhone isn't necessarily the "it" phone it was 2 years ago.

 

[charlitos]

To improve manufacturing processes and need less workforce

5000 people to reduce current workforce?

 

[Oletros]

5000 people to reduce workforce?

Foxxcon has hundreds of thousand of workers

 

[unlinked]

What hardware is Google making? I know they have their Nexus products, but those are all through other parties. I guess they now own Motorola and are working on their next phone rev (not sure when that is due out). I know of Google Glass and self-driving car projects although I'm not sure if they'll product the former and I believe the goal is to sell the technology/package to automobile manufacturers for the latter. Others I'm missing?

The Chromebook Pixel. I don't remember any device makers name being associated with that.

 

[jay-t]

Wall Street has decided they're done with Apple and are now doing whatever they can to tear it all the way down to the ground. Good reason to just stop listening to them unless you own the stock, which I don't.

My guess is, they "know" exactly what they are doing. They know, that Apple is going to come up with something amazing so they want the stock price to drop so much, that they can double the profits later. Milk the cow twice so to say.