Supply Chain Indicators Point to Poor February for Apple

[sesnir]

How can supply chain data be useful when Apple is not their only customer?

This is just like the Foxconn hiring freeze stuff that everyone panicked about. Maybe the Wii U's poor sales have more to do with it than anything Apple-related. But Apple doom and gloom headlines get more clicks apparently.

 

[SuperMatt]

Maybe that used to work when they had no real competition but 3 years in tech today is far different from 2010.

3 Years with little to no progress on 6 years and little development on iOS.

Siri - Gimmick that is wrong 1/2 the time
Maps - Disaster
iCloud - Disaster that duplicates or deletes songs.
iTunes - Bloated slow and also hasn't seen anything but minor updates. Ping, Genius are a joke ad they dogged Ping after nobody Ping'd it.

When iPod mini came out, it was a big deal. When the nano came out, it was a bigger deal. But for some reason, the iPad mini doesn't count as a big deal?

 

[iBug2]

Yes 3 plus years ago was the ipad. Nothing new in recent years was the quote, so why are you arguing?

He's arguing that you are unable to take the average of 2 numbers 6 and 3. That makes 4.5 years which Apple takes to release a new product since 2001. So since 2010, only 3 years have passed. If they don't release anything new (as in a new category of product) in 1.5 years, then you'll complain that they are behind their "average".

 

[charlituna]

Future outlook doesn't look good. That's all investors care about.

The two items that are breaking records have the stock down $279 and hovering everyday at 52 week lows.

The stock being down has nothing to do with actual sales but with analyst BS about issues, hyping up their estimates way beyond any realistic goals etc. And the blogs reposting their nonsense as if its fact.

The analysts would have us thinking that by years end we'll have super suits etc like in the show Continuum. Well until the 'supply issues' start and the whole thing is 'delayed' and we just get a dinky watch. Meanwhile they will be snatching out those $10 a share Apple stocks

 

[Vtwo]

Not sure why everyone is using the 3 year between iPhone and iPad as the standard for new innovation. The reason it was so quick was that the iPad was more an evolution (bigger screen) than revolution (multi touch/a good mobile OS/apps)

It is funny when people talk about competitors. What has Samsung done? Bigger screen, higher resolution, fast chip, S pen? These are not revolutionary products at all. They are improvements of course but not game changing.

How about Google? They still make a majority of their money on search and ads. Same as 10 years ago. Of course, there are refinements and improvements, but the basics is the same.

I think people forget how long it takes for a truly revolutionary product to come along (I count the iPhone/iPad as one).

 

[Rogifan]

While that's probably true Apple needs to put out some new stuff in this quarter or they might see a $300 stock price and a new CEO.

A new CEO? Doubtful. One thing the Apple board has shown is they don't make decisions based on sniping from the media and Wall Street. Cook recently put in place a new org structure based on functions (design, software/hardware engineering, services) vs product divisions. I think he should be given time to see that plan through. We haven't seen any of Ive's software influence yet, we don't know exactly what projects Mansfield is working on. Apple is playing the long game. Wall Street might not have patience, but I think Apple will have the last laugh.

 

[MarcelV]

Doomed

What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders

 

[applesith]

Wall Street has decided they're done with Apple and are now doing whatever they can to tear it all the way down to the ground. Good reason to just stop listening to them unless you own the stock, which I don't.

Exactly! It's such a joke how winners and losers are picked nowadays. It's not longer about actual performance.

I hope WS enjoys breaking down Apple. There isn't a rising star to be their new poster child.

 

[charlituna]

My point is samsung is starting to beat Apple in sales of these products. Apple needs to up their game and come out with some game changing IOS stuff before they start losing more share to samsung.

Samsung announces sales into the channel, not to customers. So no one really knows the share breakdown.

But you don't read stories every other day of schools, airlines, government departments adopting Samsung stuff. And when was the last time there was a riot between customers and resellers at a Samsung launch.

I'd say that Apple is doing fine even without this 'required' wow product. Or would be if the analysts etc would shut the foxtrot up

 

[Peace]

A new CEO? Doubtful. One thing the Apple board has shown is they don't make decisions based on sniping from the media and Wall Street. Cook recently put in place a new org structure based on functions (design, software/hardware engineering, services) vs product divisions. I think he should be given time to see that plan through. We haven't seen any of Ive's software influence yet, we don't know exactly what projects Mansfield is working on. Apple is playing the long game. Wall Street might not have patience, but I think Apple will have the last laugh.

That's why I said "might"

 

[OT2000]

What is all this new and innovative stuff others are doing?

Exactly.

 

[SuperMatt]

Future outlook doesn't look good. That's all investors care about.

The two items that are breaking records have the stock down $279 and hovering everyday at 52 week lows.

I'm pretty sure that those two items have nothing to do with the stock being down. In fact, those items are doing better than original projections, and are breaking records. The real issue is that Wall St. has decided that this success can't go on any longer. They simply refuse to believe it. Of course, Wall St. is always right. They were geniuses when it came to the dot-com bubble, and of course we all know mortgage-backed securities are CAN'T-MISS guaranteed high-return investments, right? Putting Apple's P/E below that of Dell shows a serious denial of reality on Wall St.

 

[iBug2]

Maybe that used to work when they had no real competition but 3 years in tech today is far different from 2010.

iPad still has no real competition though after 3 years of its introduction. It has a similar marketshare that iPod enjoyed over the years.

 

[AppleMad98004]

Apple financially is fine.

The problem is in a market that advances so fast Apple (who created many of the markets) is not innovating or making revolutionary leaps in product lines.

They are tweaking things, making them thinner, faster etc but not really innovative. This starts with the SOFTWARE. Next time Apple says something is thinner and that is revolutionary I will roll my eyes again and again. I want innovative and intuitive software. Apple, we all know you can make great hardware now revolutionize Mac OS X and iOS.

 

[rizzo41999]

Between every other commercial being an Apple iPad commercial, I'm getting sick of my own iPad. I'd like to see more computer innovation, kinda sick of this tablet fad.

 

[Oletros]

Samsung announces sales into the channel, not to customers.

Exactly the same as Apple does.

 

[oliversl]

No, they don't need new stuff. They are selling like crazy, they keep selling more 4S than Samsung S3 in the US.

All they need to do is make money, and they breaking the record of profit every quarter.

While that's probably true Apple needs to put out some new stuff in this quarter or they might see a $300 stock price and a new CEO.

 

[topmounter]

The "good ol' days" no more.

 

[cambox]

The iPad was three years ago. And where does it say they have to have a wow item every year or two or the company is crap? That is the kind of talk given by folks trying to tank the stock so they can buy cheap.

You want to know why the stock went down? Because of crap talk like yours. Especially crap talk insinuating that Steve Jobs was the only person with a brain at the company and with his death the company was just spinning its wheels until it dies completely. Instead of noticing that despite the loss of a friend, despite the need to grieve and find their footing without him, the company has kept breaking sales records quarter after quarter.

Chill out and you need to read before shouting off. It was a quote! Take your pills and lay down in a darkened room.. Oh and sell your stock as its obvious you own some and losing money by the day! Stocks can go down as well as up..did you read that bit? Guess not as you didn't read my post!

 

[imwoblin]

For the first time since I jumped on the Apple band wagon and purchased stock (1997), I don't feel the excitement of a new year of innovation and outside-the -box thinking that Steve brought to the table. Every new year meant something new and exciting, and I couldn't wait for an "Apple Special Event" to cause me to burn holes in my credit cards. I dunno, maybe it was Steve's genius, but I just don't feel the excitement anymore...

 

[nanotlj]

Apple is not your Daddy!
Go home and whine and cry in front of your Mommy!

 

[oliversl]

"It's not just Feb, Apples in for a rough year." No they don't. Is just what the analysts want you to believe. Just wait for the record sales once more.

iWatch and iTV are rumors, iPhones selling like crazy. Even 4S sold more than S3 in last quarter.

BTW, you're full of hate.

Denial has wicked consequences...

It's not just Feb, Apples in for a rough year. Off to a rocky start, mislead because the product is still selling in relatively large numbers, it's easy to be complacent.

Yet Apples grasping at straws as we witness rumors that run the gamut, its as though Apple is fishing till they get a bite.

iWatch... gimmick bleh
iTV... too far off as they fight industry pushback bleh
iPods... adrift no longer relavent bleh
iPhone... flagship product without meaningful upgrades bleh

Apple 2013, the ugly girl in a room full of international beauties.

Fasten your seat belt Apple, you're in for a very long year.

 

[OSUGuy]

Exactly the same as Apple does.

Wrong. Apple doesn't not count a sale until it reaches the customers hand.

 

[GuitarDTO]

For the first time since I jumped on the Apple band wagon and purchased stock (1997), I don't feel the excitement of a new year of innovation and outside-the -box thinking that Steve brought to the table. Every new year meant something new and exciting, and I couldn't wait for an "Apple Special Event" to cause me to burn holes in my credit cards. I dunno, maybe it was Steve's genius, but I just don't feel the excitement anymore...

And Wall Street agrees with your sentiment. That excitement is what drove the stock up in the 700's in the first place (along with obviuosly results/performance), but until that excitement returns with a new product or innovative tweak to an existing product, Apple is in the transition from Growth company to Stalwart, and you are seeing that with the stock price. Either way Apple is just fine as a company, but the days of the continuously climbing stock are over with.

 

[maxosx]

Inundated with cash, Apple will live a long life.

The question is at what level of mediocrity.

With their top talent feeling bored & unfulfilled, they may seek fresh opportunities with other companies. If Apple loses its heart & soul, they'll be just another also ran.