...and here's some analysis too
Think different? Too bad most all of them will have to learn Windows when they find job.
Odds are, they already know Windows, from their years at home.
But if college is expensive, shouldn't those who go to college have less available for their laptop purchases that those who don't go to college?
True, but its typically the parents who are paying, and its a question of an incremental cost to the
investment they're making in their child.
Specifically, after $30K for tuition, $1000 for books, (etc, etc), what's the significance of an extra $500 for an Apple laptop?
Answer: its only +1.6% ... and that assumes that the computer only lasts for one school year.
So the question is - what parent is going to forgo a small (~1%) incremental expense if they believe that it will help their child through college? IMO, none.
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Shifting gears slightly, into a more appropriately scholarly examination of these reports...
It appears to me that
Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Fortune has made a simple statistics error, namely of comparing Apples to Oranges. Specifically, he's reporting the percentage of Macs
amongst the entire student population.
But
Trip Chowdhry wasn't reporting on the entire student population -
just the incoming freshmen.
That's a different population, Mr. Elmer-DeWitt!
Statistics FAIL.
To illustrate, we can use MR's data from U of VA, and compare these two metrics, we get:
Year ... Frosh ... 4pt-Ave
2003 ..... 4% ..... 3%
2004 ..... 8% ..... 5%
2005 ..... 13% ..... 7%
2006 ..... 20% ..... 11%
2007 ..... 27% ..... 17%
2008 ..... 38% ..... 24%
2009 ..... 43% ..... 32%
(both columns: Mac OS adoption rates)
Basically, the 4 point moving average is what the school's average is, based upon the incoming freshmen's purchases. To illustrate, the 2006 average of 11% is based upon the 2003-2006 freshmen datapoints of 4%, 8%, 13% and 20% ... and for 2007, the 2003 value of 4% is dropped off and replaced with the 27% value, so the moving average goes up to 17%, and so on.
While this UVA data doesn't have any 2010 data available, what we do know is that the 2006 value of 11% will be dropping off (these students just graduated), so so long as current incoming Freshmen Mac sales are at least 11%, the moving average is going to continue to increase.
-hh