Survey Sees Pent-Up iPad Demand, Some Cannibalization of Other Apple Products

[Night Spring]

The cheaper car is more like the MacBook; the bicycle is more like the iPod touch. The iPad is more like the flintstonemobile. See my motorcycle analogy from several posts ago.

According to that analogy, I would think the iPad is a motorcycle or moped, which might not be for everyone, but some people do find them useful or prefer them for whatever reason over a car or a bicycle.

Being an activist is an important part of voting. If nobody knows what your preferred candidate stands for, everybody will vote the other way, thus detracting from your cause.

If a candidate doesn't believe in himself or doesn't have enough support to get himself noticed without *my* help, why should I bother? Sorry, but I'm not interested in changing the world, I don't have "causes." *shrug*

 

[lifeinhd]

According to that analogy, I would think the iPad is a motorcycle or moped, which might not be for everyone, but some people do find them useful or prefer them for whatever reason over a car or a bicycle.

Apparently you didn't go back and read my whole analogy. A motorcycle combines the power of a car with the size of a bicycle. The iPad combines the size of a laptop with the power of an iPod. A Flintstonemobile combines the size of a car with the power of a bicycle. Thus, the iPad is closest to a Flintstonemobile. So far, the closest thing we have to a "motorcycle" in the computing world is a netbook.

If a candidate doesn't believe in himself or doesn't have enough support to get himself noticed without *my* help, why should I bother? Sorry, but I'm not interested in changing the world, I don't have "causes." *shrug*

Um, because _you_ believe in him. Because _you_ want that candidate to be noticed. Also, note that I never said he doesn't believe in himself. Look at Ralph Nader, for example. Many people would say "Ralph who?" because they don't bother to consider all their options; they figure it's either Democrats or Republicans. People who do know of Ralph Nader-- even those who support him-- might argue that they won't vote for him because he has no chance of winning. However, that's not the point of an election. You're supposed to vote for the "best" candidate, which is not always the one that has the highest chance of winning.

And in terms of "changing the world," voting is about the easiest (and least costly) thing you can do to to begin such a process. Would you prefer to have a say in how the world turns out, or would you rather have other people dictate it for you?

 

[Night Spring]

Apparently you didn't go back and read my whole analogy. A motorcycle combines the power of a car with the size of a bicycle. The iPad combines the size of a laptop with the power of an iPod. A Flintstonemobile combines the size of a car with the power of a bicycle. Thus, the iPad is closest to a Flintstonemobile. So far, the closest thing we have to a "motorcycle" in the computing world is a netbook.

Sorry, we have to agree to disagree on this one. I think the iPhone is much more powerful than you give it credit for, and the bigger screen of the iPad will serve to help unleash some of its potential. But, neither one of us will know who is right until the iPad is out and people start ussing it, so can we table this discusssion until then?

You're supposed to vote for the "best" candidate, which is not always the one that has the highest chance of winning.

True enough. Still not interested in campaigning for anyone.

And in terms of "changing the world," voting is about the easiest (and least costly) thing you can do to to begin such a process. Would you prefer to have a say in how the world turns out, or would you rather have other people dictate it for you?

Hey, I didn't say I don't vote. I just said I don't go around trying to pursuade other people who they should vote for, or what products they should / shouldn't buy.

 

[lifeinhd]

Still not interested in campaigning for anyone.

Hey, I didn't say I don't vote. I just said I don't go around trying to pursuade other people who they should vote for, or what products they should / shouldn't buy.

What I'm trying to say is voting is only part of the process. The other part is propagating your candidate and explaining why he or she is better than the competition. That's the only way to even get your candidate noticed, and at least get his or her ideas out to "the masses" so they can consider that person.

As for not being interested in campaigning: Elections cost billions of dollars to run. Are you suggesting that someone with brilliant ideas shouldn't be allowed to be considered as president simply because they can't afford it? If they can't afford to campaign for themselves, however many people they manage to get reach need to pick up the slack. Even if your candidate of choice is well known (say, Obama), more propaganda cannot be detrimental.

And it's the same with the iPad. Look at the big picture: whoever gets the most marketshare will effectively monopolize the market. Once they've established a monopoly, they can do whatever they want in terms of price, quality, features, etc. and at that point, it's too late to complain. Even the government can't eradicate the problem; even if they were to somehow shut down Apple, it's not like Apple's former competitors will suddenly regain the means to reopen their companies after they've gone out of business. By not propagating alternatives, it'd be almost encouraging this to happen.

 

[Night Spring]

And it's the same with the iPad. Look at the big picture: whoever gets the most marketshare will effectively monopolize the market. Once they've established a monopoly, they can do whatever they want in terms of price, quality, features, etc. and at that point, it's too late to complain. Even the government can't eradicate the problem; even if they were to somehow shut down Apple, it's not like Apple's former competitors will suddenly regain the means to reopen their companies after they've gone out of business. By not propagating alternatives, it'd be almost encouraging this to happen.

So are you saying we should buy inferior products just to discourage monopolies? (I'm speaking hypothetically here, I'm not referring to iPad/Apple, just companies and products in general.)

Or let's take a look at the case of Microsoft. It got so big that governments actually took anti-monopoly action against it. It's still big, but its dominance is being chipped away due to lack of innovation over the last decade or so. I think market forces are a lot tougher than what you think, and we don't have to baby it by making monopoly prevention our first consideration in our purchasing decisions.

 

[lifeinhd]

So are you saying we should buy inferior products just to discourage monopolies? (I'm speaking hypothetically here, I'm not referring to iPad/Apple, just companies and products in general.)

Or let's take a look at the case of Microsoft. It got so big that governments actually took anti-monopoly action against it. It's still big, but its dominance is being chipped away due to lack of innovation over the last decade or so. I think market forces are a lot tougher than what you think, and we don't have to baby it by making monopoly prevention our first consideration in our purchasing decisions.

You're right, it shouldn't be your first consideration. The primary goal is to get the best product available. That being said, monopoly prevention is certainly something to consider, because if a company does become a monopoly, they no longer have reason to produce the best product, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it. Look at all the sorry Windows users, for example; they've invested loads of money into support/software/infrastructure/etc back when Windows was the best (read: cheapest), and now that M$ has those users all locked in, M$ doesn't *need* to compete, and there's nothing their users can do about it without re-making major investments.

 

[Night Spring]

You're right, it shouldn't be your first consideration. The primary goal is to get the best product available. That being said, monopoly prevention is certainly something to consider, because if a company does become a monopoly, they no longer have reason to produce the best product, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it. Look at all the sorry Windows users, for example; they've invested loads of money into support/software/infrastructure/etc back when Windows was the best (read: cheapest), and now that M$ has those users all locked in, M$ doesn't *need* to compete, and there's nothing their users can do about it without re-making major investments.

But I'm not sure what Windows users could have done back then to prevent the current situation -- Windows did provide the best cost/function solution for many computer use situations back then, while Apple was too expensive/limited in many ways. In that sense, I'm hoping that iWorks for the iPad might be one of the things that make migrating from Windows/MS Office to Apple/iWorks a bit easier. Moving directly from Windows desktop to OSX desktop is proving too hard for me, for instance, but moving from desktop to multitouch tablet-style computing requires a shift in OS and apps anyway, so is a good way for me to slide more gently away from Windows, which like you say, has become a mess due to M$ getting too complacent with its market dominance.

 

[charlituna]

Or let's take a look at the case of Microsoft. It got so big that governments actually took anti-monopoly action against it.

Yes but it wasn't the size of Microsoft or even their share that was the issue. There isn't some 'when someone hits X% of the market we have to investigate' rule.

It was Microsoft's ego that was the problem. That's what got too big. They were so used to being the end all and be all that when Netscape etc stepped up with a better, cooler web browser, Microsoft when *******e. The collective ego wouldn't stand for it. So they tried to get cute and stop those other guys by cutting off their legs and refusing to provide them with support. AND then tried to cut off their arms by making "You must include IE on all machines" and "No non Microsoft Internet software may be pre-installed" as conditions of the OEM license. Unfortunately for Microsoft this time the Black Knight had a crew of bad ass friends. And those friends say that because Microsoft is so big in the OS world, such conditions are straight up not cool bullying. Because while tying is okay to a degree, tying too unrelated products and using one that is popular to force another on folks is not cool.

 

[justinfreid]

I have to say I totally agree with you. My wife saw this thing and totally fell in love with it. She does not care for a laptop because the track pad can be frustrating for her. She saw this and just got it! AS it clicked for her and said it gives her everything that she needs: email, web surfing, Contact, books, Calendars in a very natural and easy to use interface.

From my Techie perspective once you include the value Apps will add to this thing, it is almost unlimited in what it can and could do. I do wish Multitasking would be an option but that may be added in 4.0. Folks, this thing will be huge, give it 12 months and see!... For example: people like my wife and others will be big buyers of this type of product.

And I think that more and more users will become like your wife as they see what the real benefit of the tablet form factor can bring. Anyone who has even sat on a sofa reading a magazine can appreciate that 50% of the computing done on laptops and desktops can more comfortably be accomplished in that position.

 

[satcomer]

I still say the iPad will delay the new Mac Book Pros until at least WWDC. I am seeing this a realist and love my Mac Pro to death. I just see the writing on the wall. Plus Apple still seems to have a small group of core engineers. They only seem to be able to concentrate on one product at a time.

However expect 10.6.3 soon for the iPad release plus the new iTunes. Everything until late May will evolve around the iPad at Apple. To me it is sad Apple is no longer a computer company and are now a consumer electronics company. The Mac is now second teir at Apple and if you don't believe this then you have your head buried in the sand.

I have been a Mac fan since before most of you here were in diapers. The slogan "Think Different" just doesn't exists anymore.

 

[charlituna]

I still say the iPad will delay the new Mac Book Pros until at least WWDC. I am seeing this a realist and love my Mac Pro to death. I just see the writing on the wall. Plus Apple still seems to have a small group of core engineers. They only seem to be able to concentrate on one product at a time.

I agree and disagree.

I agree, also as a realist, that there will be no laptop upgrades until after the ipad is out (both sets). It fits with last year's upgrade at the beginning of the back to school promo (and this year they might better sync up the top times so it really is the beginning and not two weeks in).

It's the reason why that I disagree with. I don't think it's the engineers. I think it's retail they want to keep focused. They want and even perhaps need the ipad to come in guns blazing. Because sales will beget sales. Like those book bestseller lists.

And honestly, any change in the laptops is likely to be incremental in the end. Bigger hard drives, perhaps the last of the machines with 2GB of ram will go to four and maybe the top of the lines will come with 8GB in the box. faster processors, perhaps more matte screen options and perhaps a revert from the SD slot back to a blank PCI to use esata in the 15" (or maybe even just as a custom option). and so on.

It's the mac pros and perhaps the minis plus the apple tv where big news could happen. and maybe displays.

However expect 10.6.3 soon for the iPad release

that probably won't have anything to do with the ipad

plus the new iTunes.

yep. my guess is the start of release week so folks can download it and have it ready to rock.