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Three major Apple suppliers faced falling stock prices on the Nikkei Asia300 Index today, believed to be directly related to "concerns over demand for iPhone X." The three Taiwanese suppliers were Largan Precision, Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, dropping 4.4 percent, 1 percent, and 3 percent on the index, respectively.

iPhone X demand concerns and decline in supplier stock prices came after the latest analyst report by JP Morgan yesterday, predicting "slashed" iPhone X orders in the first part of 2018. In a research note reported by CNBC, analyst Narci Chang said "high-end smartphones are clearly hitting a plateau this year," singling out Apple by forecasting that iPhone X manufacturing "might be down 50 percent quarter-over-quarter."

iphone-x-angled.jpg

Reports of "weakened" iPhone X demand heading into 2018 began emerging late last year, mainly stemming from analyst belief that the high price of the device would eventually lead to reduced sales after early adopters got their iPhone X. These reports have caused several Apple suppliers to be anxious over low order visibility for the full range of iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and iPhone X models in Q1 2018. CLSA analyst Nicolas Baratte argued that the reported reduction of the iPhone X's Q1 2018 shipment forecast from 50 million units down to 30 million units "remains inflated."

Despite multiple stories about the iPhone X's plateaued demand in early 2018, the smartphone is believed to have sold well following its fall launch in 2017 and throughout the holiday season. Research data shared just yesterday by Canalys reported that Apple shipped 29 million iPhone X units in Q4 2017, making the device the "world's best-shipping smartphone model over the holidays."

Earlier in January, Kantar Worldpanel said that the iPhone X saw "stellar" performance in several countries during November of last year, though it was outsold by the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus in the United States. Combined, Apple's three new iPhones captured the top spots for best-selling smartphone models during the month. Kantar's global OS data pointed towards "staggering" demand for the iPhone X in China from users said to be switching sides from rival smartphone makers.

We should get a better view of how the iPhone X sold soon, when Apple reveals its earnings results for the first fiscal quarter of 2018 on Thursday, February 1.

Article Link: Taiwanese Apple Suppliers Face Falling Stock Prices Amid Ongoing Concern Over Weakened iPhone X Demand
 
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zahuh

macrumors regular
Oct 22, 2004
196
1,219
When are their earnings calls? Would be nice if before Apple’s Feb 1
 

imronburgundy

macrumors regular
Nov 1, 2013
236
280
I believe it. After the initial newness factor, the iPhone X and faceid doesn't bring anything new to the table that's any better than an iPhone 8 that's a couple hundred less.
 
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intz2nu

macrumors 6502
Oct 28, 2012
398
40
Strong Demand, Weak Demand, Strong Demand, Weak Demand. Honestly if I had to pick my guess would be weak demand and hopefully Apple is noticing that their whole "milking" of designs has caught up with them and that people are starting to take notice of this.

I'm almost certain Apple within the year to come or maybe "longer" that they will have a new X that will be near or close to zero bezel but because of them milking designs for whatever they can that we'll definitely see an X with way less bezel on the horizon. Sadly this is the case not just with their mobile devices but also with their computers as well.
 

Sevanw

Suspended
Sep 13, 2014
1,361
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The notch and thick 4mm bezel that goes around the whole phone is hideous and looks stone age. Not surprising demand is low.
 
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coachgq

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Jun 16, 2009
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I believe it. After the initial newness factor, the iPhone X and faceid doesn't bring anything new to the table that's any better than an iPhone 8 that's a couple hundred less.

Except for the fact that you can geat a bigger screen than the “plus” with the ability to use the phone 1 handed. The form factor to screen size is a great “anything new”.
 
We'll see if they are actually feeling it. When a corporation is booking tens of billions each quarter, a few of us NOT buying is like the proverbial tree falling in the forest. Not collecting a $1000 here and there is like a penny falling out of your pocket on somebody's couch- do you even know you lost that penny?

Only when LOTS of people vote with their wallets can the corporation hear that tree(s). Or only when your entire wallet falls out of your pocket, might you notice the financial loss.

I gauge such reports from the perspective of how Apple Marketing would react if true. Since I'm not seeing more than the usual level of marketing, I'm guessing all is good with Apple's numbers in America. There could be sales problems outside of this very subjective filter- for example, if sales were way off in China, Apple Marketing would NOT necessarily be cranked up in Florida and/or elsewhere here in the U.S., so there is potential for a negative sales surprise.

Or this is just noise. Such reports could also mean that Apple has added other suppliers or other iPhones are selling much better, etc. I recall when Apple first went with phablet-sizes, they guessed demand at- I think I recall- something like a 70:30 split. However, buyers wanted much more of the 30% size than the 70% size. So reports came in that phablet phone components of the expected size were getting reduced orders, implying people might not be buying. But actually they were buying the other size much more than expected. Bad news sells much better than good news.
 
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Blaze4G

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Oct 31, 2015
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Except for the fact that you can geat a bigger screen than the “plus” with the ability to use the phone 1 handed. The form factor to screen size is a great “anything new”.
Except for the fact the screen is not actually bigger on the X when you compare surface area and watching videos.
 
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Ramchi

macrumors 65816
Dec 13, 2007
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They might post record numbers last quarter but revise the forecast for next quarter. In any case YOY they might best last year Quarter earnings next quarter as well with iPhone 7,7p,8,8p,X.... They have huge lineup across price categories
 

coachgq

macrumors 6502
Jun 16, 2009
470
812
Except for the fact the screen is not actually bigger on the X when you compare surface area and watching videos.
Ill admit I don’t know what the square inch area is, but it feels bigger than the 7 and it doesn’t take 2 hands to send a text.
 

dmylrea

macrumors 68040
Sep 27, 2005
3,600
4,790
It doesn't take an analyst or business major to realize that the combined launch quarter and holiday shopping season would be good. But after that is over, how many people are going to just go out and buy a $1200 phone especially when there aren't any carrier deals that make the price good enough to jump?

Where does Apple go after $1200? What's next? $1500? Where does it end?
 
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Blaze4G

macrumors 65816
Oct 31, 2015
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Ill admit I don’t know what the square inch area is, but it feels bigger than the 7 and it doesn’t take 2 hands to send a text.
It's bigger than the 7/8. Definitely not the plus models. Same goes for videos...videos are much smaller on the X. The difference is quite noticeable between the X and plus. Browsing websites alot more text / content is shown on the plus.
 

macfacts

macrumors 601
Oct 7, 2012
4,122
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We'll see if they are actually feeling it. When a corporation is booking tens of billions each quarter, a few of us NOT buying is like the proverbial tree falling in the forest. Not collecting a $1000 here and there is like a penny falling out of your pocket on somebody's couch- do you even know you lost that penny?

Only when LOTS of people vote with their wallets can the corporation hear that tree(s). Or only when your entire wallet falls out of your pocket, might you notice the financial loss.

I gauge such reports from the perspective of how Apple Marketing would react if true. Since I'm not seeing more than the usual level of marketing, I'm guessing all is good with Apple's numbers in America. There could be sales problems outside of this very subjective filter- for example, if sales were way off in China, Apple Marketing would NOT necessarily be cranked up in Florida and/or elsewhere here in the U.S., so there is potential for a negative sales surprise.

Or this is just noise. Such reports could also mean that Apple has added other suppliers or other iPhones are selling much better, etc. I recall when Apple first went with phablet-sizes, they guessed demand at- I think I recall- something like a 70:30 split. However, buyers wanted much more of the 30% size than the 70% size. So reports came in that phablet phone components of the expected size were getting reduced orders, implying people might not be buying. But actually they were buying the other size much more than expected. Bad news sells much better than good news.

For 2018 Q1, one analyst lowered his estimate from 50 million to 30 million. That is not "1 tree falling."
 
For 2018 Q1, one analyst lowered his estimate from 50 million to 30 million. That is not "1 tree falling."

So what do you make of that?.. that Apple's crucial, cash-cow business may be down 40%? If so and you are Apple, what do you do- just accept that that's the best you can get? Or course not. If the business is down 40%, Apple marketing would crank up like crazy to make up the difference. I'm not seeing any more than about the normal level of Apple marketing.

Of course, I'm just in America. Sales could be off a cliff in other countries and maybe Apple Marketing is marketing like crazy there to make up for the shortfall.

However, "just 1 analyst" is bad enough. Any 1 other analyst could project Apple doubling their sales. Would you trust that analyst to be right about sales?

I'm neither defending Apple nor shouting "the sky is falling." I don't know. But some supporting evidence I can actually see with my own eyes isn't supporting "the sky is falling" this time. There are ALWAYS rumors that Apple is finally flopping... every single quarter. Eventually, those will be right... just as a broken clock gets the time right twice every day.

Because I don't see a significant upswing in Apple marketing, I'm doubting the sky is falling this time. A company with so much resources and such skilled marketing machinery is not going to roll over and take the fall without trying to do something about it.
 
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JPack

macrumors 604
Mar 27, 2017
7,732
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So what do you make of that?.. that Apple's crucial, cash-cow business may be down 40%? If so and you are Apple, what do you do- just accept that that's the best you can get? Or course not. If the business is down 40%, Apple marketing would crank up like crazy to make up the difference. I'm not seeing any more than about the normal level of Apple marketing.

Of course, I'm just in America. Sales could be off a cliff in other countries and maybe Apple Marketing is marketing like crazy there to make up for the shortfall.

However, "just 1 analyst" is bad enough. Any 1 other analyst could project Apple doubling their sales. Would you trust that analyst to be right about sales?

I'm neither defending Apple nor shouting "the sky is falling." I don't know. But some supporting evidence I can actually see with my own eyes isn't supporting "the sky is falling" this time. There are ALWAYS rumors that Apple is finally flopping... every single quarter. Eventually, those will be right... just as a broken clock gets the time right twice every day.

Because I don't see a significant upswing in Apple marketing, I'm doubting the sky is falling this time. A company with so much resources and such skilled marketing machinery is not going to roll over and take the fall without trying to do something about it.

It's not as simple as Apple hitting the "Marketing" lever to make up for weak sales.

1. Apple is the #1 global brand ranked by Interbrand since 2013. This isn't an issue of brand recognition or product awareness. Everyone and their dog knows there was a new iPhone in September 2017.

2. iPhone X is a $999 product intended for early adopters. The target market is already visiting MacRumors and 9to5Mac reading the information about the leaked HomePod firmware. It's the same reason why Google doesn't need to spend much to advertise Pixel 2 or Tesla their Model X.

3. The 500 Apple Stores around the globe already act as major marketing pillars. Unless Apple is lowering the price of iPhone X and grandmothers upgrading from iPhone 5 need to know, additional direct advertising is not helpful.

If you're working in Apple's marketing unit, you're meeting with hardware engineers to make more attractive products for the Q3'18 line up (such as a 6.1" mainstream product).
 
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