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Apple is not going to wait around until the Q3'18 lineup can save the day if sales are way down. And Apple Marketing can do more than one thing at a time too.

Any company with a lot of cash and a lot of marketing strength would deal with a massive sales downturn by cranking up the marketing. It would be obvious. If we want to think this is about price, Apple Marketing could incentivize partners to push units for as little as free with payment plan spin.

Again, I'm not defending Apple here, or defending the X, or defending the price of the X. I'm just offering counterpoint to the "Apple is doomed" concept based on these particular reports. There are many other possibilities. How many times have we seen such rumors before and then Apple reports "best quarter ever" and so on?

Is it plausible that sales could be down on the X, due to price, due to the notch and on? Sure, it IS plausible. But is it plausible that sales are actually up too? Sure, that's plausible too. I stand by the suggestion that if sales were dramatically down, marketing efforts to move more units would be dramatically and obviously up. I'm not seeing it here in America, one of the most important markets in the world. I have not heard anyone in other major markets- such as China- comment that Apple is marketing way over and above there, nor that Apple is doing unprecedented promotional things there, etc. Could it be happening? Maybe- I just haven't seen or heard anything like that.

So I put myself in Apple's shoes. If sales of my most important product are significantly down, do I just roll with that and hope to correct it next Fall with new models? I have- as is so often slung around here- "2XX Billion in the bank" and award-winning, spectacular marketing at my disposal. Do I just do nothing more than usual and plan to shock the world with 3+ terrible quarters?

If I do that, I'm probably getting fired. Shareholders don't like significant & dramatic negative surprises with no obvious efforts to do anything about them. Board members don't like angry shareholders. Heads will roll. Since it would be my head, I want to take new, significant actions so I can buy myself more time (with head attached) for new efforts to try to fix the problem.

I'm not seeing that. And Apple would do it. I'm not hearing about it in China, etc. And Apple would do it.

I accept that sales could be down. I don't accept that Apple would do nothing special if that was the case. Thus, I speculate that sales are not dramatically down... in spite of this kind of rumor... which, in various forms, we've all seen about 50 times before Apple reports another incredible quarter.

The party will not go on forever. But the tangible evidence of inaction implies it's not going to be a "party's over" message this time. Question my logic here if you wish, but do take a good look at your own too: some analyst report (we always take analyst reports as gospel right)? JP Morgan no less- a big Wall Street bank that has a pristine history of telling only the whole truth and nothing but the truth, right? Please do a search for JP Morgan and Legal Settlements. Try this for starters. Some suppliers are getting less orders than expected? Apple- the supply chain master of masters- can't tap other suppliers? Other products like the non iPhone X phone might not be selling MORE than expected?

Put yourself in Apple's shoes. What would you do if sales were dramatically down? Nothing?
 
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For 2018 Q1, one analyst lowered his estimate from 50 million to 30 million. That is not "1 tree falling."

I would say 50 million units was far too high for a $999 product. But 30-35 million units was a reasonable expectation, given this is supposed to be the largest iPhone refresh in 10 years. Yet we're seeing the lower bound of that estimate. It's an indicator we're seeing an inflection point in terms of price and technology.

It's important to note is next day deliveries for iPhone X were available from the Apple Store in early December 2017 in China. Similarly, next day availability was noted in the U.S. by mid-December.

Is 29 million units weak by Apple or analyst standards? Probably. By other standards? Probably not.
 
I believe it. After the initial newness factor, the iPhone X and faceid doesn't bring anything new to the table that's any better than an iPhone 8 that's a couple hundred less.


Face ID is better. The new screen and redesign is better. No question. Face ID just works.
 
Put yourself in Apple's shoes. What would you do if sales were dramatically down? Nothing?

Do nothing. Because the Apple brand is more valuable than a quarter of slightly weaker than expected iPhone X sales.

Free payment plan? The vast majority of the world buys smartphones outright.

iPhone X is Apple's ultra-premium product. They aren't about to lower the price to once they've embarked on this $999 journey. Other analysts have suggested older models like iPhone 7 are selling better than expected which helps make up revenue.

If you believe Kuo's information about the 6.1" LCD model, the development is slightly behind the 5.8" and 6.5" models. I would suggest it's a reaction to the sales performance of the $999 model.
 
I would say 50 million units was far too high for a $999 product. But 30-35 million units was a reasonable expectation, given this is supposed to be the largest iPhone refresh in 10 years. Yet we're seeing the lower bound of that estimate. It's an indicator we're seeing an inflection point in terms of price and technology.

It's important to note is next day deliveries for iPhone X were available from the Apple Store in early December 2017 in China. Similarly, next day availability was noted in the U.S. by mid-December.

Is 29 million units weak by Apple or analyst standards? Probably. By other standards? Probably not.


While I love the iPhone X and will keep it 2 years. Apple got greedy. $800 tops and the sales would have been way higher.
 
The iPhone X would be hitting suppliers the hardest and would moving much of the profit to Apple. Since the X has a much higher profit margin, it would take far fewer unit sales to reach a certain amount of profit for Apple but since the assembly/parts costs are essentially unchanged, suppliers are screwed.
 
Do nothing. Because the Apple brand is more valuable than a quarter of slightly weaker than expected iPhone X sales.

Free payment plan? The vast majority of the world buys smartphones outright.

iPhone X is Apple's ultra-premium product. They aren't about to lower the price to once they've embarked on this $999 journey. Other analysts have suggested older models like iPhone 7 are selling better than expected which helps make up revenue.

If you believe Kuo's information about the 6.1" LCD model, the development is slightly behind the 5.8" and 6.5" models. I would suggest it's a reaction to the sales performance of the $999 model.

Do nothing and report the rumored up to 40% drop and you get fired. It's not about the Apple brand. It's about the leaders that work at Apple. Sit on your hands and do nothing, dramatically disappoint and you are OUT.

The vast majority of the world does not buy iPhones outright. I don't know where you got that. But look it up. Maybe you are spitting hairs in terms of what "outright" means?

I didn't suggest Apple has to lower the price. That's something they could do through partners. And not actually lowering the price but pushing payment options that make it seem more accessible.

I don't think the X has been on the market long enough to cause a tangible, significant reaction that is the 6.1" LCD model. I think that was already in motion BEFORE anyone could see how well the X would sell.

But believe what you wish. I try to straddle the fence around here being as objective as I can. I'm certainly no "Apple is always right" or "always wrong" guy. I've seen this particular kind of rumor too many times to take it as fact THIS time. I've seen much too much of JP Morgan shenanigans to trust anything they say. I've offered my logic of why I don't think sales are down as much as 40%. One can take that as sound or not. I fully embrace that it is speculative logic that could be wrong because sales in America are on pace.

All I seem to be getting in return is just some incredible level of blind faith that THIS particular analyst is probably right and these particular rumors are absolutely supporting a concept that Apple is doomed this time. It sounds like we don't like the X... or the notch... or the price and have decided to just pound away at this because we'd want to believe our rationalization to maybe not buy the X is shared the world over.
 
I believe it. After the initial newness factor, the iPhone X and faceid doesn't bring anything new to the table that's any better than an iPhone 8 that's a couple hundred less.

I doubt Apple was looking to sell that many units compared to previous years. Even the base X is more expensive than what the highest end plus models were in previous years and thus come with a much higher profit margins. Compared to the base 8, Apple is making almost twice as much money per unit.
 
Do nothing and report the rumored up to 40% drop and you get fired. It's not about the Apple brand. It's about the leaders that work at Apple. Sit on your hands and do nothing, dramatically disappoint and you are OUT.

The vast majority of the world does not buy iPhones outright. I don't know where you got that. But look it up. Maybe you are spitting hairs in terms of what "outright" means?

I didn't suggest Apple has to lower the price. That's something they could do through partners. And not actually lowering the price but pushing payment options that make it seem more accessible.

I don't think the X has been on the market long enough to cause a tangible, significant reaction that is the 6.1" LCD model. I think that was already in motion BEFORE anyone could see how well the X would sell.

But believe what you wish. I try to straddle the fence around here being as objective as I can. I'm certainly no "Apple is always right" or "always wrong" guy. I've seen this particular kind of rumor too many times to take it as fact THIS time. I've seen much too much of JP Morgan shenanigans to trust anything they say. I've offered my logic of why I don't think sales are down as much as 40%. One can take that as sound or not. I fully embrace that it is speculative logic that could be wrong because sales in America are on pace.

All I seem to be getting in return is just some incredible level of blind faith that THIS particular analyst is probably right and these particular rumors are absolutely supporting a concept that Apple is doomed this time. It sounds like we don't like the X... or the notch... or the price and have decided to just pound away at this because we'd want to believe our rationalization to maybe not buy the X is shared the world over.


Market Manipulation is the name of the game. It's the American way.
 
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I think that's the best guess in this thread.

Some of these rumors are to manipulate the stock markets to make some folks rich. Other rumors are bought and paid for by the competition to do similar things that are more targeted.

If you don't read the news, you are uninformed. If you do read the news, you are misinformed.
 
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