The 14" MBP is not a 2020 product

[leman]

Dell's upcoming XPS 17 uses a 16:10 display, and it's overall dimensions and weight are very close to the MBP 16"

Nice to see that Dell is finally moving to a superior 16:10 and also dropping the obsolete ports! It's great news for the Windows world and for the consumers overall.

- so that's an indication of what might happen if Apple continue to follow the bezel minimisation route (eventually we could get 17" and 15" machines in a similar form factor to the current 16" and upcoming 14").

We already did — with the 16" MBP. Dell is (once again) repeating what Apple did. I wouldn't hold my breath for a larger laptop from Apple.

 

[theluggage]

Also there have been cases where a benchmarked A15 actually doesn't beat x86 even at power consumption.

That is a 6-year-old article comparing 6-year-old ARM processors with an Intel processors (Atom) that has since been discontinued because it couldn't compete with ARM in the mobile space... It also ignores the effect of multiple cores and extra on-chip acceleration technology where ARM has an advantage (as far as I can see, the article doesn't even cite what systems they tested... because RAM quantity/speed or thermal constraints don't affect performance... right?).

It's more that I don't see how it can replace a MacBook Pro yet...

The Apple A12/A13 are designed for tablets and phones and won't replace a MacBook Pro - even the rumours are suggesting a 12-core (8 high-power, 4 low-power) chip, and a 'by 2021' launch (https://www.macrumors.com/2020/04/23/12-core-arm-macs-2021-report/) - and yes, its quite possible that the date will slip thanks to the infernal virus.

Once the "lock" was lifted, it could technically run anything. The problem was... there was nothing available that could run like that outside of dev environments at the time.

Well, yes, because no commercial developer is going to lift a finger to produce software that can only be run on unofficially jailbroken tablets produced by a manufacturer that had already crashed and burned in the mobile market.

2. Others have tried to produce desktop environments on ARM that could become "alternatives" to the regular Windows/Linux/Mac platforms, and... they have all failed to some degrees.

Mainly, insofar as they have failed, that's because Apple got their first with iOS and the iOS App Store - not "because ARM". Not that Android and Chromebook have exactly failed. Microsoft's problem is that they have three unique selling points: (1) Windows runs on cheap, commodity PC hardware and (2) Windows has a vast, end-of-argument range of software and (3) a huge user-base familiar with the Windows UI. Windows RT broke all three of those, and suddenly it was competing on a level playing-field with iOS and Android. Oops.

I personally really love the Raspberry PI, but it's not my main desktop device and I can't see how I'd be able to convince my grandpa to use it over his beloved Mac.

The Raspberry Pi costs $35 (or maybe ~$100 by the time you've added a case, PSU, keyboard etc.) and was designed around industry-surplus set-top-box processors with the prime objective being an ultra-cheap computer that you or the kids could mess around with and not cry too much if you let the magic smoke out... yet most of the major open source Linux/Unix packages run fine mostly because they just needed minor tweaks and re-compiling.

(Actually, the big problems with the Raspberry Pi are to do with cost-cutting rather than processor architecture - e.g. until the latest version, nearly all of the I/O went through the bottleneck of a single - and somewhat flakey - USB *2* port. Plus, having a SC card as the system disc isn't a great idea in a desktop/laptop replacement - although it makes sense for a 'maker' machine like the Pi)

I don't know if they can still design hardware efficiently at home, so we'll see if this impacts anything in terms of timeline and overall readiness of whatever their next platform may be.

...well, yes, the current situation puts a question mark on every timeline. A lot of modern hardware development - especially chip design - is done via computer simulation, though (even the original ~1986 ARM was designed that way, and the hardware famously worked first time).

Ultimately - you're tending to assume that Apple will suddenly say "one more thing" and spring an overnight, across-the-board switch to ARM using hardware and software that is available today. That would be breathtakingly stupid (or deliberate constructive dismissal of the Mac), even by butterfly keyboard or Apple Maps standards. While we're still speculating on the feasibility are rumours I'm going to credit Apple with some sense (and some of the more recent Mac releases suggest that Apple have wised up and transferred some of the lunatic fringe to the XDR display stand and Mac Pro wheel department).

 

[unoporfavor]

OK so we can all agree there's no ARM processor this year right?

What about a 14" MacBook?!!

 

[uer23]

What about a 14" MacBook?!!

Possibly later on in the year

 

[DeepIn2U]

View attachment 910284
eventually...

I recall finding this at a former workplace in storage years ago. Manuals and all.

it was like discovering the ‘bag phone’ , you know after cars got cellular (think Miami Vice white Testarosa).

that is a beast and museum in its own bag.

 

[throAU]

2) There is no benefit to 14" - Apple didn't grow the 15" model to 16" for fun, they did it because they were struggling with thermal limitations in the 15" chassis.

Isn't the 15" and 16" chassis the same size?

 

[unoporfavor]

Isn't the 15" and 16" chassis the same size?

I believe the chassis is slightly different (larger) on the 16" - all less than a cm in dimensions, and the cooling system was changed

 

[theluggage]

OK so we can all agree there's no ARM processor this year right?
What about a 14" MacBook?!!

My guess - if 14" is coming, it will be in the next substantial update, whenever that is (and whatever processor it has). Reason: Apple have an urgent need to switch to the Magic Keyboard - whatever the true failure rates may be, butterfly keyboards have zero credibility now they've been dropped from the 16" and Air. That means a substantial mechanical re-design (even if it's only slightly thicker on the surface, like the Air, that change will run deep) so it would be the obvious opportunity to update the display. Also, "we made the display bigger" is a better headline than "the new keyboard sucks 83.5% less than the old one". Evidence: see the 16" MBP.

That's assuming that the 14" rumours have any more foundation than 'they added an inch to the 15" so obviously they're going to add an inch to the 13"'... That would actually be a bigger proportional size increase than 15-16" (and slightly bigger in absolute terms - 15.4-16 vs 13.3-14) so it would probably be a more noticeable increase in bulk.

The ARM thing that this thread got sidetracked onto (sorry, mea partially culpa) is only sorta relevant because that would be another opportunity for significant design changes. My guess there is that (if ARM is happening) it's going to be a 2+ year process and the most we'd see this year is either a slightly kludgey registered-developers-only prototype system (e.g. a Mini with an A12 chip or a hackintoshed iPad Pro) or a "showcase" machine like a 12" MacBook that doesn't replace an existing model and which can fit in a brown envelope with a MacBook Air.

However, what with the current crazyness, I wouldn't bet the farm on any Mac updates at WWDC, or maybe minor spec bumps.

 

[leman]

Ultimately - you're tending to assume that Apple will suddenly say "one more thing" and spring an overnight, across-the-board switch to ARM using hardware and software that is available today.

You know, deep inside I am kind of expecting Apple to announce this extension to ARM ISA that takes care of some of the particularities of the Intel SIMD opcodes and then ship a low-latency transcoder from x86 to Apple-ARM, making all compiled x86 code run on ARM without performance loss. That would be something

 

[theluggage]

You know, deep inside I am kind of expecting Apple to announce this extension to ARM ISA that takes care of some of the particularities of the Intel SIMD opcodes and then ship a low-latency transcoder from x86 to Apple-ARM, making all compiled x86 code run on ARM without performance loss. That would be something

Actually, I'd be kinda surprised and disappointed if Apple went so far down the legacy-is-king route. A more "Apple" message is "Get your finger out and re-code your SIMD stuff for Metal - then it will take advantage of whatever proprietary acceleration tech that we build in to future machines".

Apple "won" the mobile market partly because they were prepared to start iOS with a clean slate, while MS tried to find some way to leverage Windows' desktop dominance on Mobile - which not only failed, but nearly backfired on their PC business with the Windows 8 debacle. Apple was also able to completely ditch Classic MacOS and switch to an all-new OS within a few years - whereas it has taken MS most of the last two decades to kill off Win3/9x. Windows 10 32-bit still runs Win 9x - if not older - binaries and one of it's worst "features" IMHO is that it's still a hotch-potch of 'classic' and 'modern' apps, even down to having two 'control panels' with confusingly overlapping functionality.

If the (still hypothetical) MacOS on ARM is too x86-friendly there will be no incentive for developers to change and we'll still be running x86 binaries in 2030.

Also, there's a name for a chip lumbered with extra circuitry to translate complex x86 instructions into RISC for the sake of legacy code: x86 - that's how Intel and AMD chips have worked since the Pentium Pro.... Way to throw away the power/core density advantage of ARM.

The real issue getting the speed of transition "just right" so that it gets done within a year or three but doesn't pull the rug out from under people's feet.

 

[Tekguy0]

You know, deep inside I am kind of expecting Apple to announce this extension to ARM ISA that takes care of some of the particularities of the Intel SIMD opcodes and then ship a low-latency transcoder from x86 to Apple-ARM, making all compiled x86 code run on ARM without performance loss. That would be something

I think it is likely an ARM Mac chip would have lots of fixed-function accelerators for things like video, and x86 emulation/transcoding. Apple is clever and probably won't just ship a regular high performance ARM chip without some hardware goodies to make the transition smoother.

 

[thei3ug]

My guess - if 14" is coming, it will be in the next substantial update, whenever that is (and whatever processor it has). Reason: Apple have an urgent need to switch to the Magic Keyboard - whatever the true failure rates may be, butterfly keyboards have zero credibility now they've been dropped from the 16" and Air. That means a substantial mechanical re-design (even if it's only slightly thicker on the surface, like the Air, that change will run deep) so it would be the obvious opportunity to update the display. Also, "we made the display bigger" is a better headline than "the new keyboard sucks 83.5% less than the old one". Evidence: see the 16" MBP.

That's assuming that the 14" rumours have any more foundation than 'they added an inch to the 15" so obviously they're going to add an inch to the 13"'... That would actually be a bigger proportional size increase than 15-16" (and slightly bigger in absolute terms - 15.4-16 vs 13.3-14) so it would probably be a more noticeable increase in bulk.

I like your analysis. it's not something you tack on mid cycle.

11% screen size increase for the 13" to 7% or so. They'll need to increase the width of the 13" about 5 mm. reduce the depth a bit. Overall footprint will go up a tad. Noticeable to some. Depends on other internal constraints. And business considerations that may inspire delay.

Regardless, it's a redesign, not a refresh, with all that entails for manufacture. A keyboard change would benefit from being part of a comprehensive new product (screen), instead of a fix, but it depends on what they're capable of doing in the time they have, with the resources available.

 

[Falhófnir]

Nice to see that Dell is finally moving to a superior 16:10 and also dropping the obsolete ports! It's great news for the Windows world and for the consumers overall.

We already did — with the 16" MBP. Dell is (once again) repeating what Apple did. I wouldn't hold my breath for a larger laptop from Apple.

Er, Dell have pursued the ultra narrow bezel design since 2015, and even more than that it's been an across the industry trend anyway. So to say Dell is copying Apple here is just absolute nonsense, I'm afraid. As for the 17" model being reintroduced (which will have been a decision taken at least a year, eighteen months before the 16" released) is far more likely to be because their market research indicated there's a demand for it than because 'we have to one-up Apple'.

Nice to see that Dell is finally moving to a superior 16:10 and also dropping the obsolete ports! It's great news for the Windows world and for the consumers overall.

We already did — with the 16" MBP. Dell is (once again) repeating what Apple did. I wouldn't hold my breath for a larger laptop from Apple.

It depends on if you think the MBP has reached its ultimate state and isn't going to change any further from here. It's possible the 16" is an aberration resulting only from Apple needing to temporarily increase size for the sake of thermals, in which case when the Arm based models arrive it might indeed be reversed and we will go back to an even smaller 15.4" design. Alternatively Apple might be seeing a similar trend of desire for larger screens in their market research, in which case stretching the screen right into the (rounded?) corners and achieving a 17/15" pairing to replace the current 16/14" models at around the same size and weight is as reasonable a scenario as any.

My guess - if 14" is coming, it will be in the next substantial update, whenever that is (and whatever processor it has). Reason: Apple have an urgent need to switch to the Magic Keyboard - whatever the true failure rates may be, butterfly keyboards have zero credibility now they've been dropped from the 16" and Air. That means a substantial mechanical re-design (even if it's only slightly thicker on the surface, like the Air, that change will run deep) so it would be the obvious opportunity to update the display. Also, "we made the display bigger" is a better headline than "the new keyboard sucks 83.5% less than the old one". Evidence: see the 16" MBP.

That's assuming that the 14" rumours have any more foundation than 'they added an inch to the 15" so obviously they're going to add an inch to the 13"'... That would actually be a bigger proportional size increase than 15-16" (and slightly bigger in absolute terms - 15.4-16 vs 13.3-14) so it would probably be a more noticeable increase in bulk.

On that, the rumour is for a 14.1" display for the smaller MacBook Pro:

Apple Working on Six Mini-LED Products Including New 14.1-Inch MacBook Pro and Refreshed iMac Pro

Apple has six mini-LED products in the works that are set to debut in 2020 and 2021, and production is not expected to be delayed by the coronavirus,...

www.macrumors.com

Why is anyone's guess, it's likely not enough to make adding a dGPU possible (from the example of the 15" which will be larger either way). Again the only thing that makes sense to me is market research showing people want larger displays. It's true of phones, if the addition of first a 12.9" iPad, and subsequently the ever increasing size of the smaller Pro (9.7"-10.5"-11.0") is anything to go by then it's a trend in tablets as well.

 

[joelhinch]

They need to refresh the 13” (whether it will be 14” or not) ASAP, to get rid of that butterfly keyboard.

 

[unoporfavor]

They need to refresh the 13” (whether it will be 14” or not) ASAP, to get rid of that butterfly keyboard.

Concur! Partner just got the 2020 MBA and the keyboard is phenomenally good. The MBP I have with the butterfly is just terrible.

 

[americanguy]

I think it will be the 2020 product. In fact i think it will be introduced in next refresh. The Pro line will be 14” and 16, Air stays as 13.3”

Just my two cent

 

[unoporfavor]

I think it will be the 2020 product. In fact i think it will be introduced in next refresh. The Pro line will be 14” and 16, Air stays as 13.3”

Just my two cent

When do you think refresh might be?
Thanks for your thoughts!

 

[americanguy]

When do you think refresh might be?
Thanks for your thoughts!

No problem man! Hard to say but I think it will be sometime in summer (June, July) marked as Mid 2020 model

 

[dhershberger]

Deleted.

 

[unoporfavor]

No problem man! Hard to say but I think it will be sometime in summer (June, July) marked as Mid 2020 model

fingers crossed it's released winter/either this month or next!!

 

[thadoggfather]

2020 aint anywhere near over, but after this announcement, this thread isn't so far fetched.

 

[thimplicity]

Maybe same release schedule as with 15 and 16” last year?

 

[bill-p]

You guys do realize most of Apple is still working from home, and as such... they are pretty limited?

I'm not surprised at all by the announcement to be honest. Seems like the hardware team can only tweak the design slightly given the limited access to tools that they'll get while they're actually in the lab.

Also, if anything, this release basically "secures" the Mac line's schedule this year. The 16" doesn't look like it'll get a chip that's worth an "upgrade" any time soon since Intel is pretty much "standing still" as well. Looks like the next Mac refresh will be either much later this year, assuming Apple resumes operation by June, or it may even drag out further into 2021.

You guys can thank some bat for this situation.

 

[thadoggfather]

You guys do realize most of Apple is still working from home, and as such... they are pretty limited?

I'm not surprised at all by the announcement to be honest. Seems like the hardware team can only tweak the design slightly given the limited access to tools that they'll get while they're actually in the lab.

Also, if anything, this release basically "secures" the Mac line's schedule this year. The 16" doesn't look like it'll get a chip that's worth an "upgrade" any time soon since Intel is pretty much "standing still" as well. Looks like the next Mac refresh will be either much later this year, assuming Apple resumes operation by June, or it may even drag out further into 2021.

You guys can thank some bat for this situation.

I still don't think it came down to the final hour to include 10th gen on base and a 14" screen across the board, before they decided 'nah'

But just my guess.

 

[dirteater666]

You guys do realize most of Apple is still working from home, and as such... they are pretty limited?

I'm not surprised at all by the announcement to be honest. Seems like the hardware team can only tweak the design slightly given the limited access to tools that they'll get while they're actually in the lab.

Also, if anything, this release basically "secures" the Mac line's schedule this year. The 16" doesn't look like it'll get a chip that's worth an "upgrade" any time soon since Intel is pretty much "standing still" as well. Looks like the next Mac refresh will be either much later this year, assuming Apple resumes operation by June, or it may even drag out further into 2021.

You guys can thank some bat for this situation.

The bat didn't do anything wrong.