I agree with all that you say, except you haven't considered one thing.
I fear that there is a far greater chance that the iPhone is going to need to be hacked to allow it to work without activation since there will probably be frequent software updates to it (far more frequently than iPod will have). With each update, Apple is likely to disable the hack that activates the iPhone. So you run the risk of owning an expensive paperweight.
The iPod Touch will be limited in its feature set as you mentioned, but at least it will always function (or so I think). I hope the mail, notes, maps/weather widgets get hacked onto the iPod touch...
Maybe I am wrong about all this... any thoughts?
I've considered this. As of now Apple is not forcing anyone to update, or torturing those who haven't. I'd say anytime an update comes out, someone will have it figured out within a week how to re-activate the phone.
In the meantime you can always stick an update behind until its easy enough to take it on yourself. Chances are a pattern will grow and more people will get into finding ways around the activation and with multiple brainpowers working towards that goal it should be fairly quick and painless. There is very VERY little chance that hackers will let these iPhones sit useless without a phone contract. They're quite the tool.
I'm not much of a Mac guy, so I must apologize for the Windows scenerio I'm about to compare to. When Windows XP first came out it sure seemed like they were taking some drastic measures to prevent pirating. The 30 day activation bomb, and taking note of hardware profiles. After while the pirating became popular, and then CD keys were blocked from Windows Updates. Now its all laughed at, and I chuckle everytime my ol tower pc passes ANOTHER Windows Validation.
'Soon enough third party's will come in and sure change up the scene. They always tend to. And like I said before... I doubt the iPhone could ever be left alone.