After all this info, here's what I think:
It IS a software issue with OS4.
OS4 adds "intelligent tuning of the radio", as mentioned by Mossberg and iFixit. It looks at signal strength, noise, etc. and picks the right channel. It appears to be buggy.
Apparently this new radio tuning thing is not iPhone 4 specific, it applies to a 3GS on iOS 4 too.
I think the placement of the hand near or on the antenna tricks the buggy radio-tuning software and throws it off. I think this is exacerbated in areas of marginal AT&T signal to begin with, or perhaps other unique situations with signal strength, operating frequency, and nearby interferences, which is why some people are seeing the problem and others aren't. Remember, every city has a different collection of cell providers, frequencies used, etc.
I also think AT&T software updates to the towers are a factor. Mossberg said they were updating their software to increase compatibility with iPhone 4. Some posters here were told by Apple last night that this process isn't done. I noticed in my own home (Folsom, CA) that last night my hand affected signal and this morning it didn't. Maybe they rolled out the update to my area overnight.
That sums up my opinion on the matter. I'm not going to sweat it. And thankfully, keeping my hand away from the bottom isn't a super big issue. I don't like it, but at least it didn't turn out to be an issue with the entire metal band, as originally thought.