The last intel macbook and depreciation

[nquinn]

I'm in need a 16" macbook pro. Obviously, this is a horrible time to buy one with new ARM macs due out soon. The larger models probably won't come in 2020 though because of lack of a good discrete gpu from Apple.

How do you think these last intel macbooks will hold up for resale value?

Bad? Because intel chips won't be compatible in ~ 2 years and everyone will avoid them?

or

Good, because some people will desperately still need intel chips to power certain software and can't move to ARM so resale value will hold up.
(with that said, if ARM has excellent emulation/simulation for x86, people may not need the old intel models I think?)

 

[profcutter]

I wish I could add something useful, but it’s just too much of a gamble. It could really go any way. If the new machines knock it out of the park, then the old machines will become much less valuable. If the launch of ARM goes the way of Catalina, then yeah, there may be some demand for older machines, but like you said, Apple will probably continue to sell the 16” for a while, and the refurbs will also be available, so I wouldn’t expect skyrocketing prices in the near term. Maybe more like the 2015 15 inch, where the depreciation curve levels out before it would have normally, so that a 3k $ machine sells for 1.2k even 4 years later. Apple hasn’t told Intel to take a long walk off a short pier, so they can continue to make the current Intel based machines indefinitely. They could even decide to do another rev of intel 16 inch laptops, though it’s unlikely.

 

[glenthompson]

I think they will initially hold value better due to some people wanting x86 for virtual machines, bootcamp, or incompatible apps. As some point, VMs will run fine on Apple Silicon and the old model values will crash.

 

[kasakka]

Even if MacOS support for Intel were to stop 2 years from now, it is a pretty mature OS and aside from some critical bug fixes you could just use it for as long as the machine works. I don't feel we have seen much significant progress in terms of features etc in MacOS for years now.

I would expect the ARM machines to have a ton of issues to start so it would be better to jump in when they have a 2nd generation product of those available maybe in late 2021 or in 2022. By that time software support will have matured and major issues have been fixed.

I'm starting a new job soon and will be getting a 16" MBP as my work machine. Even if ARM was available it would not be a sensible choice because I depend on enough development software that being unable to do my work due to any possible ARM incompatibility issue would be unacceptable. Intel is just a safer bet at this point as it will work just fine.

Personally I would not buy a MBP with my own money but will gladly take a company provided one. They are very expensive and no longer in a class of their own. 2015 and ealier I would not have even considered anything else.

 

[gnasher729]

I'm in need a 16" macbook pro. Obviously, this is a horrible time to buy one with new ARM macs due out soon. The larger models probably won't come in 2020 though because of lack of a good discrete gpu from Apple.

If you need a computer now, buy a computer now. If you don't need a computer now, don't buy it. That's all there is to it. 99% of customers just buy a Mac, because someone told them it's a good computer to have, they don't care what's inside. There will be no effect on durability. There will be no effect on repairability. There will be very, very little effect on resale prices.

 

[0906742]

Looks like ARM Macbooks crashed resale value of previous Intel based models. I was interested getting new M1 version if I could sell my just about 1 year old MBP but looks like M1 shocked the market and no one is buying Intel based models unless you sell it practically for a song. Offers seem to be down like 50% from last week. Luckily I don't really need Macbook, just curious about new tech but I guess I will keep my old one for now.

 

[ls1dreams]

Looks like ARM Macbooks crashed resale value of previous Intel based models. I was interested getting new M1 version if I could sell my just about 1 year old MBP but looks like M1 shocked the market and no one is buying Intel based models unless you sell it practically for a song. Offers seem to be down like 50% from last week. Luckily I don't really need Macbook, just curious about new tech but I guess I will keep my old one for now.

Yup - the incredible performance is a big factor here. Now not only will intel not even be supported, but the M1 is so good that it's hard to ever consider an old machine.

My work has been selling old 2015 15" MBP's for like $500, and even at that price I'm not sure it's worth it.

 

[0906742]

Yup - the incredible performance is a big factor here. Now not only will intel not even be supported, but the M1 is so good that it's hard to ever consider an old machine.

Yeah, it seems so far M1 was better than I expected.

My work has been selling old 2015 15" MBP's for like $500, and even at that price I'm not sure it's worth it.

What I can say from my experience trying to sell my current one is that mentioned price is a going rate for 2019 13" MBP in pristine condition these days, so way too much for 2015 machine. Prices of old models dropped like rock this week and are still in a free fall.

 

[dinobear]

The M1 is really impressive for sure. Until apple releases a gpu that competes with the ones in the intel machines there really isn't an ARM option right now for pros.

Intel Macs will be supported for a long time to come. Considering Apple will be selling intel Macs through next year. +3 years for people with apple care is 4 years out bare minimum.

For the PPC -> intel transition I used my powermac g5 until 2010. I had no issues with support. Did all my work just fine and never felt like I was missing out on anything or couldn't do the work I needed to do. At the same time, I'm also not someone who feels like they need the latest gadget when the one I have works great.

 

[0906742]

I know there are still possible situations where Intel based are needed but I was only referring to resale value and it has gone south big time since last week. I’ve never seen anything like this before.

 

[Grohowiak]

I know there are still possible situations where Intel based are needed but I was only referring to resale value and it has gone south big time since last week. I’ve never seen anything like this before.

That's the initial wave. Basicaly frekaouts and tech zealots.
Sure it will take a hit and it is a gamble but as always, you need one you get one you don't then do what you want

 

[0906742]

That's the initial wave. Basicaly frekaouts and tech zealots.

Could be. Luckily I don't need it and I can wait or skip it. I'm just curious about new M1 models but definitely my current one is doing all I need from it (almost nothing, as I just use it mostly as my "toy").

 

[rdubmu]

Resale value on a depreciating asset is something I would consider when purchasing a new computer. Are you in need of a 16 inch. Can you get buy with the 13 inch and just have a monitor at home?

The other option is to purchase a Mac mini in the mean time if you don’t need it to be mobile due to the pandemic. There are not many places you can take your laptop...except for the desk to couch

 

[AustinIllini]

Traditionally, the support of mac is pretty open ended. However, in this specific case, i think they'll hard deadline it to where support will end after 5 years.

 

[PaladinGuy]

I’ve been considering selling my 2019 13” MPB, as well, but I was afraid their value would drop massively now. I’m also spooked that Apple will stop supporting Intel Macs as quickly as they can to force people to buy their processors. There is a lot of upside for them to get people off of the Intel machines.

I would be very upset if my $1500 MPB got less than 5 years of updated to the latest OS. I know people are comparing this to the PowerPC transition, but I seem to recall people with the last PowerPC Macs got only one more full OS update. After that, it was only security updates. Is that correct?

 

[nquinn]

I’ve been considering selling my 2019 13” MPB, as well, but I was afraid their value would drop massively now. I’m also spooked that Apple will stop supporting Intel Macs as quickly as they can to force people to buy their processors. There is a lot of upside for them to get people off of the Intel machines.

I would be very upset if my $1500 MPB got less than 5 years of updated to the latest OS. I know people are comparing this to the PowerPC transition, but I seem to recall people with the last PowerPC Macs got only one more full OS update. After that, it was only security updates. Is that correct?

If I had a 2019 13" MBP I'd be trying to sell it as fast as possible.

1. Because depreciation will start hitting hard
2. Because the M1 is incredible
3. Because I wouldn't want to pay $700 to fix the butterfly keyboard when it inevitably breaks

If you want to wait a bit for the upper-level 13" that's likely to come out in 6-12 months that's not unreasonable, but you may take a bigger depreciation hit. (would think it's already priced in, but maybe not. People commonly pay stupid prices for old apple gear).

 

[0906742]

If I had a 2019 13" MBP I'd be trying to sell it as fast as possible.

1. Because depreciation will start hitting hard

I can tell from my own experience depreciation already hit HARD and it may be already too late to sell if you expect getting decent price. I got lucky in the end but offers I was getting for it dropped like 50% from the last week and all the buyer candidates vanished.

People commonly pay stupid prices for old apple gear).

This has been my experience with all other my previous Apple gear but M1 definitely did turn the market. All other stuff I have sold before has been basically that as soon as I posted sales ad it was sold and huge number of offerings to pay asking price. For example I recently sold two years old Airpods 1 for half the price of new Airpods 2 within one hour after posting ad. I did not even believe anyone would buy used Airpods no more than used toothbrush.

 

[FuNGi]

This reminds me of when my wife bought the last low res iMac right before the line went all 4K/5k. I’m sure the resale of those machines fell but to her the resolution didn’t matter (to me that mattered the most).

I bought an i7 13” MBP a few months ago knowing full well that an M1 was coming and that I’m not buying to resell. I’m buying to use for the next 5 years. That being said, the average buyer on Craigslist is probably not going to care about processor benchmarks - they’ll look at storage, age, and condition.