Hi
User 6502 - I'd like to ask you some very personal questions and before I do that I'd like to answer them for me later in my reply because I think you're an excellent example in many ways. But let me elaborate on that a bit and add some further food for thoughts as I think there are some fundamental misconceptions from many here and it explains to a certain point the harshness and bitterness and most of all the negativeness with lots of biased
framing without any reason for me to understand.
For me and 99.9% of Apple customers or potential ones.
How would you know that? Do you have statistics to proof that or public available business analyses from an accepted analyst company to underline your speculations in a scientific way? Because if you don't have that it's just pure speculation based on what exactly?
1st and foremost - what is a potential customer? In Marketing there is an analyses of
TAM SAM SOM
TAM => all individuals that would benefit from a MR headset experience - currently with the available solutions still a very small fraction of all technology people and quite limited - I'd say a very small fraction of the global population.
SAM => a fraction of the TAM best described as Apple eco system participants ( you need an iPhone to start with the process ) that would benefit from the solutions and have business and/or private interest in that new solution and the resources to pay the premium for the initial demonstrator either because their company and thus the potential business pays for it or because they have their own resources that justifies the investment
SOM => probably an even much smaller very tiny niche of the market. Developers, rich individuals, technology freaks ( I fall under this last category ) and teleworkers or traveling managers ( I also fall under this category )
Come to terms with it, this thing sold a lot less than Apple intended (and Apple didn’t think it would sell much anyway). It is an unmitigated flop and at this point they’re just trying to get rid of stock… I wouldn’t be surprised if they already stopped production for good.
So let me ask you what your motivation is to write things like that continuously?
- Are you personally gaining anything from such framed statements? ( it does not bring any further content or insightfulness for others - at least not for me )
- Are you unhappy not getting one yourself and is this a kind of publicly shared therapy? ( in case yes thx for that it's kind of funny ) 😆
- Are you wanting to bash a brand and get recognition by that?
2ndly your last comment is not logical - in case Apple didn’t think it would sell much anyway ( looking at the
SOM ) how could it be an
unmitigated flop? This just doesn't make any sense to me?
As you rightly pointed out Apple surely did not expect to sell many MR headsets to start with. Selling the right number is probably the baseline to get as many AVPs in the hands of skilled and motivated developers as possible and in case Apple can sell a few additional ones to other groups ( elaborated before ) it is a nice addition to pay for some of the machinery and development cost. But this is by no means a solid business case for such a device.
In case you want to learn a bit more you might want to go to the Apple WWDC 2024 engineering sessions and have a look at the
fast amount os spatial computation tutorials - it's amazing how much energy Apple is putting into that activity and the very last details - they don't do that without a master plan that is probably being executed since 2018 with the introduction of AR kit and with a path well into the 2030s and beyond with multiple steps of execution.
My personal motivation has always been Technology - I saw back in 2004 a demo from a steel manufacturing construction company at the CES in Hannover Germany ( bring a young professional ) that wanted to bring the experience of a steel plant to the customer and such plants cost north of § 2 .. 3 Billion or even more today - competition is probably not allowing to enter their manufacturing plant - thus they built a 3D simulation tool consisting of 24 workstations and 6x 3d projectors costing $ 20 M and travel with that kit to potential customers - I was immediately hooked to that demo and I always wanted that - now some 20 years later I can get that very same immersion from my preferred privacy respectful company in a tiny neat package at a reasonable price that fits into my budget.
Why must something start as a mass market product to be a success when there is almost no low entry level applications that make the everyday joe happy? In fact there is a pretty
horrifying simulation of a potential future on YT - I'd not call this potential end point a success for human mankind nor for the company its issuing these devices.
I have absolutely no doubt that a MR device is the answer to many GUI requirements to make life for many people better and more enjoyable - at least it does for me and I can't wait to get mine in 12 days - finally.
There have been estimates about multi Billions of investments from Apple - it will take a decade to refinance that investment - glad they are doing that - all buyers from the initial test devices will benefit from their enormous investment at almost no cost ( comparably ) - I guess when you devide the 15 Billion invesmtmen with the probably 500 k pcs you get a nice value for your money
This device is not meant to be sold in more than 400 or 500 k pcs. in the first 24 months - even the device that comes after that will probably only be sold in small amounts but the GUI and foundation of the AR and MR world will be part of our affordable daily devices in a few years from now as a standard.
Being part of that is a big success for me and probably more so for Apple.
I have so many things I personally dislike. Certain Car or airplane brands - some of them are dangerous to be used and I just ignore them and when I book a flight or a ride I avoid that brands - similarly to other activities I just don't do - but I don't write in forums about that since others may want to take the risk for cheap flights in return - it's their choice - what is your motivation with your farming and constant criticizing? In case the AVP is not for you I am fine with that.
When you have scientific results or analyses from a well respected analyst or firm please post the links and insights so we will all benefit from your research.
In case you have first hand experiences and/or even better a business plan and reasons why you don't think this will pay off for your development please share that was well. I am looking forward to that detailed analyses and insights - after all I always try to add value to my postings - even in case they get a bit lengthy - sorry for consuming some of your time
