Probably - but its an unknown. They could decide to rely on new hardware present in a new ATV model.
The A17Pro introduces hardware AV1 decode which is useful for certain streaming services such as Youtube, Amazon Prime, and Netflix. It's also the lowest spec chip that supports Apple Intelligence. So there's a couple of reasons there for cutting out the 2nd and 3rd Gen AppleTV 4k models in the future. Again, Apple fans will always push for the biggest and latest bells and whistles but the more interesting things for the Apple TV to cover are various AV options, sound pass throughs, and features that should be on a high spec streaming box but aren't.
Well, it didn't help that the 2014 Mini was, let's day, not the greatest Mini even when it was new, and 2014 saw Apple dropping the more powerful Mini options. By 2018 it was looking seriously underpowered as a general-purpose Mac.
With the 2022 ATV, the only real issue is that Apple need to keep making A15 chips...
Who knows why Apple let the 2014 Mac mini languish for 4 years. The 3rd Gen AppleTV is getting on for 4 years old too at this point so we could also be seeing it get relatively short changed in OS support in the future.
I get the feeling that Intel was telling Apple that they were going to stop special ordering the Haswell CPU that was the basis of the 2014 Mac mini - which could turn into the one of the reasons why Apple had to make a decision on it.
Apple have to decide what the ATV is for. If its primarily a TV streamer then (a) it doesn't really need an update unless its because of component availability and (b) its already really expensive compared to things like Firesticks. Making it a "Mac Neo" is - at the very least - going to need more storage and RAM - and will likely price it even further out of the streaming market... and if its going to run MacOS then it would make more sense to resurrect Front Row for MacOS than dual boot MacOS with tvOS (which is going to need even more storage).
Its possible that the price bump on the Mac Mini has opened up a slot for an A-series "Mac Neo" in the ~$400 price range - but that's way out of line for a streaming box. If Apple were going to do a Mac Neo then it still leaves space foe a cheaper streaming box (frankly, they could keep the 2022 - I'm not remotely tempted to upgrade).
If it was a streaming box then it needed to be cheaper. But adding 80 USD to the 4 year old Apple TV mk3 - already overpriced in a streaming market - is effectively asking for almost 50 percent more for a vastly outdated product that you could have gotten cheaper last month against all advice to be cautious about a 4 year old product. A 249 (top model) Apple TV mk 4 would need to offer more than just a CPU bump to A17 Pro to justify the price.
Resurrecting Front Row would not solve the issue of plenty of older (more powerful) Mac hardware - all of which has M class processors - which would be running out of support. I do like the idea but it's not as elegant as booting directly into tvOS on compatible hardware and be able to run native streaming apps - with Front Row you only have local 'iTunes' libraries which is quite antiquated now. Even if Front Row were to be upgraded to be effectively a tvOS emulator on top of macOS you'd have the issue where the minimum OS underlying a Front Row layer can't be loaded for example for an M1 Mac mini in 2030.
Ironically, if Apple went with the A18 CPU like the MacBook Neo you'd be matching RAM with the MacBook Neo. And if you're being generous and bumping storage up from 128Gb to 256Gb you'd ask for 399 USD for a Mac Neo (256Gb) with the 2 USB-C ports (to remain consistent).
My ideas actually go beyond the Mac mini somewhat but could be something for Mr Ternus to consider:
macOS optimisation for lower RAM
Since we're in an era where - Microsoft recently announced that future Windows 11 patches will
work better for users with 8Gb of RAM - this directly benefits users where RAM can't be upgraded - such as the notebooks with soldered RAM - a feature copied from Macs. I'd hope that Apple will announce similar measures for similar reasons with the MacBook Neo in existence alongside various M1-M3 Macs with similar storage levels.
Apple TV mk 4
Apple TV mk4 is likely to get really close to the specs of a Mac Neo - could a range topping 'Pro' version launching alongside the regular mk4 be one way of making the Apple TV a more profitable line?
A17Pro wifi only (no thread radios and 64Gb Storage) and tvOS only - 199 USD
A17Pro Ethernet (with thread radio and 128Gb storage) and tvOS only - 249 USD
A18Pro Ethernet (with thread radio and 256Gb storage) - 399 USD - 'Pro' model can dual boot to macOS
Mac OS software
Announce project to allow tvOS to boot on any ARM Mac - act as a long term solution for older Macs. Rather than expecting games developers to target macOS versions that expire after 5-8 years on Mac hardware this project has longer legs and will support older ARM Apple hardware for longer.
Leads to hiring some of the laid off devs (see recent industry news) to finally work on AAA projects for Apple gaming.
Both might take a year or two to get to fruition.
Mac Nano for enthusiasts - homeOS?
Price rises have created a hole under the Mac mini - specifically in the 399-599 bracket. But while students etc will buy the MacBook Neo I think a Mac Neo desktop device is more likely to be picked up by veteran enthusiasts for various projects including home servers if it allowed internal storage upgrades via SATA or NVME ports. Fusion drives may be dead as of macOS Tahoe but that's one option - as is adding a Thunderbolt port to a desktop Neo so that users could then add their own dock for more IO options although sleep/wake issues could cause disconnects.
Could the rumoured homeOS include local storage management so in effect without being fully fledged macOS it's a replacement for Time Capsule too?
