The Next XB360 Speculation Thread

[Antares]

Future Xbox360's will not be radically different....smaller box due to smaller components, larger hard drive, different colors...maybe Blu-ray. But there will be no performance or functional changes. The oldest or cheapest version of the Xbox360 will have to be able to run all the same games as the newest version of the 360. That will dictate what does and does not get added to future revisions. It's as simple as that.

Now, if we start thinking about the next Xbox, that's a different story...if there will be one, that is.

 

[gkarris]

Not to sound like a broken record, but the future is smaller episodes. I think we'll see games released over time in smaller chunks at cheaper prices. This basically takes the publishers out of the equation and replaces them with the hardware providers (which is the point for Sony and MS).

Developers release a short "demo" that has the graphical assets and basic code framework for ~$15. Then in a few weeks time the simply post the next episode of the game. It's a small download because it only contains animation code and some voice work. Again, the basic game assets are already there. It's like the replays in racing games. The files are tiny because the code needed to render the scene is already there.

So you only play a game as long as it's interesting. It will naturally weed out crappy games (good for us) and see that successful narratives continue on for many seasons (like popular TV shows).

This is great for the games business. The quality will go up, the acting will get better (easy to get actors to commit to a few thousand lines instead of 100 thousand), and the writing will improve. We win.

O I C...

That's where the whole "downloadable content" (whether movies or games) comes in - more green as you don't have to burn resources to create physical media.

I do like to hold a physical copy. Maybe give a huge break to those who want to download and charge a premium for those who want a physical copy.

 

[0098386]

^^^^

Who's going to spend $50 on a game you can't ever sell or trade for something else?

Not me...

I do all the time. Orange Box was £25 for me ($50) on Steam, along with $60 for the Unreal collection, $40 for the GTA collection and $65 on the id pack. There's no resale value of course but I'm not the kind of person who sells games anyways. I think the closest I came was a trade with MRU a year or so ago.

I mostly don't see the point in reselling games for pittance. But I don't buy rubbish either.

I do like to hold a physical copy. Maybe give a huge break to those who want to download and charge a premium for those who want a physical copy.

They already do to an extent. Sure some shops have sweet deals from time to time. But Prey for £2.50? I've never even seen a bad quality PC game go for less than £5.

 

[Mackilroy]

I'd be mildly surprised if there is another Xbox. Microsoft failed with the original Xbox and it's evident that they've failed with this one. It's a niche product, bought mostly by people in North America and a minority concern everywhere else. That's not to mention the ridiculous costs of fixing the things.

If the 360 is a niche product, then what do you call the PS3? More 360s than PS3s have been sold so far, even with the PS3 outselling the 360 recently.

Microsoft can attempt to pump more money into hardware that is of interest to a shrinking part of the market (emerging Asian gaming markets aren't going to buy it, and that is where future expansion is), but it's just throwing money away.

Yes, we all know nobody cares about Xboxes.

The 360 has no blu ray. That's basically the problem. A next gen console without next gen storage. Within a couple of years there will be PS3 games that will be impossible to replicate on a 360 because it doesn't have the storage space. As for the idea of many PS3s being bought for blu ray playback, the GTA sales numbers have put that to rest (a higher proportion of PS3 users have bought the game so far - let's be charitable, maybe Xbox owners are waiting because theirs is in the shop).

You missed the articles saying GTAIV is selling more on Xbox 360 than PS3, didn't you? And you're still falling for the joke that you 'need' 50GB of storage for games? Don't make me laugh.

So Microsoft can try to launch early again, but if they do that, it will be clear to customers that buying an Xbox is a losing proposition, since Microsoft EOL's them too soon.

5 years is too soon? Evidently you don't play PC games.

 

[creator2456]

You missed the articles saying GTAIV is selling more on Xbox 360 than PS3, didn't you? And you're still falling for the joke that you 'need' 50GB of storage for games? Don't make me laugh.

That is not what he is saying. More people who have a PS3 have also bought GTAIV as opposed to Xbox 360 owners buying GTAIV.

I see that as meaning their are fewer games on PS3 to take sales away from GTAIV.

On topic: I can see MS getting a new console out in '09, but most likely in '10. There will still be discs, but downloads will take much more of the market.

 

[e²Studios]

I don't think there will be another MS console. The next Xbox will be some sort of home media hub that expands on their Live movie downloads and some basic games, maybe even a tuner.

I see them turning their attention to the PC market, they see how well Steam is doing, they realize they can go in to a market that is relatively open with little to no competition that they can't either buy out or stomp out with their pocketbooks.

MS has lost far too much, their investors are sick of the xbox group borrowing from other more profitable groups in order to stay afloat. They may have a lot of money but they also have investors to answer to. None of them are too happy with the xbox's lackluster performance or marketshare.

PC is where i see MS focusing their attention, I will not be shocked when they come out and say there will be no Xbox 720 with the red triangle of death.

 

[MRU]

PC is where i see MS focusing their attention, I will not be shocked when they come out and say there will be no Xbox 720 with the red triangle of death.

That would be disastrous for ALL of us. M$ are at least good competition in the marketplace and that is good news for consumers and the industry.

Taking them out of the picture and leaving Sony & Nintendo would be just awful. Sony already got a kick in the teeth the start of this generation because of their arrogance and complacency towards the market and consumer.

Thankfully because of the competition they have had to re-address these issues and appease consumers.

Without competition they would not give a flying f**k.

As much as many of you hate M$ and would gladly see them disappear - the result that missing entity would cause in the marketplace would do yourselves as much harm.

Imagine a world with just EA publishing games.
Imagine a world with just M$ making operating systems.
Imagine a world with just Sony or Nintendo making consoles..

NONE are good things.. Period.....

 

[0098386]

It would only bring a similar situation to what the Wii is in now. It has no competition. Week in week out it outsells everything (barring the handhelds), Nintendo are sitting on a money mountain and they're not lowering the price. They've only just given us Wiiware! If they had some serious competition we might have seen it a lot earlier than this.

Competition is good. It drove HD-DVD and Bluray film prices down and gave us them "5 free film" bundles. It (hopefully) made Sony bring out the PSP Slim, just as the PSP fat probably had a big hand in the DS Lite.

I hope MS don't leave the market but, as I said in another thread recently, I can imagine them taking a different approach to home consoles. "The Vista box", a powerful but cheap PC with soldered components. Effectively mixing the 2 markets as Commodore in the 90's.

 

[JackAxe]

I can't see MS leaving the console market, unless they really tick of their share holders and continue to operate at a loss.

From my perspective, they've abandoned the PC market when they focused their efforts on putting a media-center into our living rooms and moved to Vista. I recall Leo on Tech TV years back talking about how MS had trouble getting developers when they initially wanted to produce one, so instead reworked it as the XBox.

I've always thought of the XBox as MS's PC. I honestly expected to see Office on the X360 by now.

<]=)

 

[pcypert]

It's pretty safe to infer from numerous interviews that they are making a new one....and it's coming around the 7 year mark. Maybe it'll come out a year or little bit more before that 7 year mark with some content still coming to the 360 in that time. That's not speculation that's from statements from their team.

Also not from speculation MS is getting more and more into downloads. They're perfecting things this generation and next things will be in place. I won't say they'll do away with physical media, but time will tell. It's obvious that they are pushing into this area.

They've learned a lot in this generation, developed (bought) some nice software developer relationships, etc...MS would be stupid to leave this generation. They have one more on steam alone.

And if they have a truly next gen and unique experience almost 4 years before Sony (sony saying they're on a 10 year life cycle) that would be huge...

Paul

 

[Agathon]

If the 360 is a niche product, then what do you call the PS3? More 360s than PS3s have been sold so far, even with the PS3 outselling the 360 recently.

I take it you are forgetting the fact that the 360 was released an entire year before the PS3. The PS3 has been outselling the 360 worldwide for some time, and now is pretty much even in North America. The North American media tend to focus on the North American market, which Xbox is strong in.

The 360 paid for being released a year early with ridiculous hardware problems and with the lack of next gen optical. Microsoft's strategy was to build an insurmountable lead that would mean the contest was over before the PS3 was out of the gates. It didn't work, partly because Nintendo thrashed everyone.

Yes, we all know nobody cares about Xboxes.

Outside North America people don't as a rule. Here in Asia, online gaming is a much bigger deal than it is elsewhere (especially here in Korea, where broadband is years ahead of the US and Canada) and Xbox Live doesn't really fit in to how people use consoles (people where I live are more likely to go to a Playstation Room with their friends than play at home on their own machine).

You missed the articles saying GTAIV is selling more on Xbox 360 than PS3, didn't you?

With current installed bases that isn't surprising. On the other hand I guess you missed the fact that the PS3 version has a 30% higher attach rate.

And you're still falling for the joke that you 'need' 50GB of storage for games? Don't make me laugh.

You don't need 50GB of storage for a game, but if you want to make a game that requires 50GB of storage, you won't be making it for the 360... ever.

5 years is too soon? Evidently you don't play PC games.

It's too soon for a console.

 

[Mackilroy]

I take it you are forgetting the fact that the 360 was released an entire year before the PS3. The PS3 has been outselling the 360 worldwide for some time, and now is pretty much even in North America. The North American media tend to focus on the North American market, which Xbox is strong in.

Not at all. According to this website, the Xbox 360 has approximately double the number of systems in circulation that the PS3 does. It's going to take awhile for the PS3 to catch the 360, let alone have more consoles sold, especially since it's not as if nobody is buying Xboxes anymore.

The 360 paid for being released a year early with ridiculous hardware problems and with the lack of next gen optical. Microsoft's strategy was to build an insurmountable lead that would mean the contest was over before the PS3 was out of the gates. It didn't work, partly because Nintendo thrashed everyone.

Ridiculous, but in many cases often exaggerated issues. Next-gen optical is hardly a requirement at this stage. And yes, Nintendo did thrash everyone.

Outside North America people don't as a rule. Here in Asia, online gaming is a much bigger deal than it is elsewhere (especially here in Korea, where broadband is years ahead of the US and Canada) and Xbox Live doesn't really fit in to how people use consoles (people where I live are more likely to go to a Playstation Room with their friends than play at home on their own machine).

Tell that to the United Kingdom.

If that's the case in Korea, then people there really aren't buying either console, are they?

With current installed bases that isn't surprising. On the other hand I guess you missed the fact that the PS3 version has a 30% higher attach rate.

A 30% higher attach rate of what? Of the game? Of Blu-ray movies?

You don't need 50GB of storage for a game, but if you want to make a game that requires 50GB of storage, you won't be making it for the 360... ever.

Or you find a way around the issue. 50GB does not a good game make.

It's too soon for a console.

Yeah... right. You're free to believe that.

 

[Martin C]

I'm glad I've got both a PS3 and a 360.