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I think one place we can look for some idea of how this might unfold is commercial air flight. The first "autopilot" system was invented in 1914... a century later, much of the flight is automated, but it absolutely requires a human driver in multiple stages of the flight.

Given that flight traffic is highly organized, carefully timed, and monitored by thousands of air traffic controllers and it STILL isn't fully automated, I think we can figure cars will never become fully autonomous. And as long as they are not, you never get the efficiency benefits people cite when they talk about fully automated and optimized traffic patterns. None of those work with human drivers mixed in.

My own guess is things like Uber will slowly make cars less necessary for most people, and the problem will solve itself in other ways that we probably can't anticipate. Full automotive automation is a pipe dream IMO.

Agree. IMO, many situations where a self-driving car may not be ideal (bad weather, off road etc)
 
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