Theories Why All Carriers 5-6 Weeks?

[Baymowe335]

Ever since release day, estimated ship times for the iPhone X have been 5 to 6 weeks. I can only think of two reasons why this would be the case:

1) Demand for iPhone X is not good after the first day when shipping times almost immediately hit 5-6 weeks.

2) Apple sees 5 to 6 weeks as the butter zone for expected delay because it is still before Christmas And projecting any more than 5 to 6 weeks would possibly make people rethink ordering an iPhone X.

Do you think Apple has set a maximum 5 to 6 weeks estimated delay because they don’t want people thinking they won’t get this before Christmas. If so, this would give validation to iPhone X production ramping very quickly to meet the man before Christmas. I believe this is the case.

I mean, 2 days have gone by with no extension in ship times. This either means demand fell off a cliff or Apple is very confident in ramping their production in the next month or maybe has already done so.

This 2-3M seems like more of a joke every day.

 

[Appl3FTW]

The 5-6 weeks is a buffer zone for Apple to ramp up productions and get them out.

 

[gelie]

I’m pretty sure it’s the max wait time In Apple tolerance studies. How would you feel if they told you the truth that’s it’s really 8-12 weeks?

 

[FFR]

That’s because it’s sold out.

 

[JPack]

I mean, 2 days have gone by with no extension in ship times. This either means demand fell off a cliff or Apple is very confident in ramping their production in the next month or maybe has already done so.

Peak demand occurs within the first 48 hours. This isn't new and we've witnessed this with previous iPhone launches. The people who think the dates would continue to slip are not thinking properly.

News is coming out from China the iPhone X isn't as well received as expected based on carrier info. The 5-6 week ship dates match this info. As the largest luxury market in the world, this says quite a bit. The X clearly won't be the supercycle phone as some have predicted.

 

[Newtons Apple]

I think Apple is making them as fast as they can. The carriers can only sell what Apple sends them and that might vary.

 

[JPack]

Do you think Apple has set a maximum 5 to 6 weeks estimated delay because they don’t want people thinking they won’t get this before Christmas. If so, this would give validation to iPhone X production ramping very quickly to meet the man before Christmas. I believe this is the case.

Nah, Apple actually provides a pessimistic shipping estimate. The people getting their ship dates pulled in earlier is evidence of this.

If people want the X, they are willing to wait. The AirPods ship dates last year is evidence of this.

 

[gelie]

I would take the other side of that bet. Remember how people thought they screwed up royally on the Iwatch? Or the Airpods. Apple does very well on in conviving consumers they NEED there products. IE take a look at their stock price and market cap.

 

[blairian89]

It is simple economics - demand has dropped off and is not outpacing their current forecasted ability to supply orders within that timeframe.

The majority of the people who are going to pre-order the X likely already have. Apple also tends to overestimate their lead times and I am sure that most folks ordering (even today) are going to see them sooner than that.

Every day that goes by adds one more day to their ability to produce phones and supply the demand - if the demand is not outpacing their ability to supply then the lead times will not change. Once demand drops below their ability to supply, you will start to see lead times drop and shipping dates will get moved up.

 

[gigaguy]

I was wondering too. With the price, I'm feeling it could go either way. Seems to me they should have made the 8 a 7 update only and pushed the 10 as the only real new model. I'm thinking some are waiting to see the X and then will buy the 8 (or 7) when the impulse subsides.
For me the price wasn't worth it and my LTE Apple watch nicely fills in when I don't want to carry a phone around, which is more and more these days.

 

[JPack]

Simple - demand has dropped off and is not outpacing their current forecasted ability to supply orders within that timeframe

The majority of the people who are going to pre-order the X likely already have. Apple also tends to overestimate their lead times and I am sure that most folks ordering (even today) are going to see them sooner than that.

This is the correct answer.

MacRumors is an echo chamber for Apple enthusiasts. The RBC survey conducted a few weeks earlier suggested consumers were most interested in buying the 8 and 8 Plus rather than the X. The news of problematic production combined with the mild 5-6 week ship dates matches the survey data.

Apple enthusiasts may have a large appetite for the iPhone X, but the rest of the world is looking at a $999 phone that offers no killer features compared to an existing iPhone.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Ever since release day, estimated ship times for the iPhone X have been 5 to 6 weeks. I can only think of two reasons why this would be the case:

1) Demand for iPhone X is not good after the first day when shipping times almost immediately hit 5-6 weeks.

2) Apple sees 5 to 6 weeks as the butter zone for expected delay because it is still before Christmas And projecting any more than 5 to 6 weeks would possibly make people rethink ordering an iPhone X.

Neither are true or have any basis for reality. If demand softened after Day One then the 5-6 week would decrease not remain constant unless production started to fall off too. We've heard none of that. The fact delivery range is unchanged likely means the demand: production ratio remains constant. So either # of orders per hour is the same while rate of production remains unchanged or # of orders is growing but the production rate is also increasing.

The 5-6 weeks is Apple best estimate based on its current projections of how production ramp up compared with projected orders over that same time span. Apple is always super conservative with numbers. It doesn't like to overpromise delivery dates. If it can't delivery before Xmas it's not going to give out false info to make consumers think there is a chance of that happening.

 

[benzslrpee]

5-6 week ship date is just a signal to the market Apple intends to move as much inventory as they can prior to EOY. saying anything officially on pushing demand to 2018 will illicit difficult / annoying questions about their supply chain control

where are you getting the China stat from? the numbers circulating in the ibanking community is ~5-6M units sold in China in 5 hours and complete inventory sellout in overall target release markets. this is driving the stock upgrades

Peak demand occurs within the first 48 hours. This isn't new and we've witnessed this with previous iPhone launches. The people who think the dates would continue to slip are not thinking properly.

News is coming out from China the iPhone X isn't as well received as expected based on carrier info. The 5-6 week ship dates match this info. As the largest luxury market in the world, this says quite a bit. The X clearly won't be the supercycle phone as some have predicted.

 

[TheRealAlex]

Ever since release day, estimated ship times for the iPhone X have been 5 to 6 weeks. I can only think of two reasons why this would be the case:

1) Demand for iPhone X is not good after the first day when shipping times almost immediately hit 5-6 weeks.

2) Apple sees 5 to 6 weeks as the butter zone for expected delay because it is still before Christmas And projecting any more than 5 to 6 weeks would possibly make people rethink ordering an iPhone X.

Do you think Apple has set a maximum 5 to 6 weeks estimated delay because they don’t want people thinking they won’t get this before Christmas. If so, this would give validation to iPhone X production ramping very quickly to meet the man before Christmas. I believe this is the case.

I mean, 2 days have gone by with no extension in ship times. This either means demand fell off a cliff or Apple is very confident in ramping their production in the next month or maybe has already done so.

This 2-3M seems like more of a joke every day.

5-6 Weeks is the real launch date but November 3rd sounds A lot better than December 14th
Technically Apple will sell a handful maybe 200,000 phones on 11/3 there by Legally making it the launch date.
But since Apple does not publish real numbers they ca still say they sold 3 Million phones on 11/3
It’s just gonna take 6 Weeks to get to you.

If we could just count how many IPhone X models get activated on 11/3 that’s your real number.

 

[JPack]

5-6 week ship date is just a signal to the market Apple intends to move as much inventory as they can prior to EOY. saying anything officially on pushing demand to 2018 will illicit difficult / annoying questions about their supply chain control

where are you getting the China stat from? the numbers circulating in the ibanking community is ~5-6M units sold in China in 5 hours and complete inventory sellout in overall target release markets. this is driving the stock upgrades

Credit card transactions in China were approximately 20 billion RMB. If the ASP of the iPhone X is 9,000 RMB, it translates to just over 2 million units of iPhone X pre-ordered.

https://www.sohu.com/a/200761690_114778

The 5-6 million units you're suggesting is likely worldwide. That number would be consistent with Kuo's estimate of 2-3 million units available at launch and another 2-3 million units back ordered. The 5-6 weeks estimate is conservative and Apple will ship devices on or before that estimate.

 

[protoxx]

Apple usually uses the pessimistic side of the shipment window. Better to under promise, over deliver. As far as by carrier, after the prebuilt stock, aka day 1 delivery, they can adjust the production to match. After all the differences is sim cards and packaging. It's also not just the 4 us carriers. It's multiple carriers in many countries.

 

[Baymowe335]

News is coming out from China the iPhone X isn't as well received as expected based on carrier info. The 5-6 week ship dates match this info. As the largest luxury market in the world, this says quite a bit. The X clearly won't be the supercycle phone as some have predicted.

Source? And don’t provide the total $ spent in China stat.

Pretty funny you’re basically calling the X a disappointment before it’s even released.

 

[bambooshots]

While the supply for preorders is sold out, Apple can crank out a ton of phones in 5-6 weeks.

Didn't get finally get over the hurdle of production issues recently?

 

[Baymowe335]

Chinese iPhone buyers who reported incomes above 200,000 RMB (approximately US$30,000), an extraordinary 52% plan to buy the iPhone X.

Literally almost every article has reported insane demand for iPhone X, yet we still have people speculating it’s disappointing. Read: speculating. Hard to say it’s a disappointment with all countries and carriers into December within 24hrs. Can’t wait until sales and guidance come out in January.

I don’t think a $999 price will deter many. They don’t look at it as $999...they look at it as $41/month.

iPhone 6 sold 4m units in 24hours. I’d bet anything iPhone X sold more than that.

The only negative China news I saw was mainland said Dec ship almost immediately, so people went to Hong Kong.

Among those who can afford it in China, over 50% said they will buy an iPhone X.

 

[joeblow7777]

2) Apple sees 5 to 6 weeks as the butter zone for expected delay because it is still before Christmas And projecting any more than 5 to 6 weeks would possibly make people rethink ordering an iPhone X.

Do you think Apple has set a maximum 5 to 6 weeks estimated delay because they don’t want people thinking they won’t get this before Christmas. If so, this would give validation to iPhone X production ramping very quickly to meet the man before Christmas. I believe this is the case.

The 5-6 weeks is a buffer zone for Apple to ramp up productions and get them out.

This is pretty much what I'm thinking. Apple is going to ramp up production to make sure that as many orders as possible are filled before Christmas.

 

[gadgetfreaky]

I think while there is decent demand for the X is good- it's nowhere near demand for peak 2015 or so. I think after the early minutes there were just not that many orders and in 4 weeks they will have production levels well in hand to meet demand.

 

[Baymowe335]

I think while there is decent demand for the X is good- it's nowhere near demand for peak 2015 or so. I think after the early minutes there were just not that many orders and in 4 weeks they will have production levels well in hand to meet demand.

Again, total speculation? iPhone 6 was the most insane demand ever and they sold 4M in 24 hrs and 10M during opening weekend.

Between even a muted iPhone 8 opening weekend and iPhone X, I’d do my own speculating that those are over 10M.

 

[saltd]

Calling the X a disappointment already? Wow, I guess there’s no stopping the speculation train at this point. It’s very edgy to say the X is an underselling flop, but I just don’t buy it. Resentment over either the price or lack of availability seems to bring all of the “actual” sales numbers experts out of the woodwork.

The X is only one of 8(?) phones Apple is selling, and it represents the high dollar luxury tier at this point. The fact that it’s sold out at less than two days from preorders is still impressive.

But basically, if Apple meets demand, the product is a dud-and if they can’t keep up, then they are criticized for dropping the ball.

 

[Marshall73]

It’s funny when you look back at comments for pretty much ever Apple product going back to the first iPod the naysayers trott out the same garbage only to be wrong year after year.

 

[noteple]

Because the factory will need 4-5 weeks of manufacturing capacity and a week of logistics to meet world demand as it stands now.
Between 11/3 and 1 qtr of 2018 it will be just like AirPods trying to finding one at a store.
iPhone 8's will be plentiful

If you think anybodys going to move 10 Million Galaxy 8's or Pixels 2 any weekend don't bogart that