I genuinely think there are only 2 possibilities:
- The iPhone 8 chassis with no changes, a new chip and USB-C for the regulators
- The iPhone XR or 11 chassis with no changes, a new chip and USB-C for the same reason.
Given the history and the value proposition Apple has created for the SE phones, I just don't see them making any changes at all. The concept has always been to take an old chassis, save on all the R&D costs and put a new chip inside.
Why would they suddenly change up something that saves them money and has been extremely successful already? Makes no sense.
USB-C is probably going to have to be a thing if we take the
USB-C EU directive at face value. It suggests that Apple's entire on-sale phone range will have to charge via USB-C by the end of 2024, I had assumed that on-sale phones could continue until discontinued.
But let's assume instead that the EU mandate demands that all phones on-sale would need to be USB-C connected.
That being the case, Apple only have 2 phone release windows remaining to reorganise their lineup. September 2023 and September 2024.
That now makes it clear that iPhone 15 will have USB-C, it till become the mid range phone when the iPhone 16 comes out in September 2024 and the current iPhone 14 might not even get to become the budget model (the position currently occupied by the iPhone 12) after the 16 is released in 2024.
This makes it possible that in 2024 as the iPhone 16 comes out that the iPhone 14 is simply discontinued and is replaced by a phone that has a USB-C port.
It would be easy to assume that Apple could just engineer a 14c to have a USB-C port with nothing else changed, remember it will have the 5 core GPU A15 CPU.
This would lead me to believe that the SE 2022 gets replaced in 2024 by the 'current' iPhone 15 CPU in a device with a USB-C port. But with that format? I would say there's 3 options:
1. Continue with 8 Bodyshell as per 2022 SE model.
2. Bring back the 8 Plus (5.5 inch screen)
3. Bring back the 11 (6.1 inch screen)
But consider that the SoC in a 2024 SE might end up being better than the SoC in a iPhone 14 which would serve in the tier just above a 2024 SE. I think it might end up being the A16 CPU.
If a process shrink brings battery life improvements to make a small screen SE 2024 viable in the existing 8/SE 2020/SE 2022 body shell though.
And finally, I presume there will be a rush to clear out any lightning phones remaining after the September 2024 product line updates. I'd then assume that bargain hunters might then look towards remaining stocks of the iPhone 14 at that point - 64/128/256 SKUs would be available.