Yet now the IPCC says ... global warming this century could be as little as 1.3º C
The IPCC's 2013 Report, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013 — The Physical Science Basis is available to anyone who wishes to download a 300+mb, 1,5552 page PDF.
It is available here along with an executive summary: http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/
On page 1055, there is a table that lays out four projections to the end of 2100.
Chapter 12 — Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Table 12.2 | CMIP5 annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (°C) from the 1986–2005 reference period for selected time periods, regions and RCPs*.
2081-2100
Global
1.0 ± 0.4 (0.3, 1.7) RCP2.6
1.8 ± 0.5 (1.1, 2.6) RCP4.5
2.2 ± 0.5 (1.4, 3.1) RCP6.0
3.7 ± 0.7 (2.6, 4.8) RCP8.5
Land
1.2 ± 0.6 (0.3, 2.2) RCP2.6
2.4 ± 0.6 (1.3, 3.4) RCP4.5
3.0 ± 0.7 (1.8, 4.1) RCP6.0
4.8 ± 0.9 (3.4, 6.2) RCP8.5
Ocean
0.8 ± 0.4 (0.2, 1.4) RCP2.6
1.5 ± 0.4 (0.9, 2.2) RCP4.5
1.9 ± 0.4 (1.1, 2.6) RCP6.0
3.1 ± 0.6 (2.1, 4.0) RCP8.5
Tropics
0.9 ± 0.3 (0.3, 1.4) RCP2.6
1.6 ± 0.4 (0.9, 2.3) RCP4.5
2.0 ± 0.4 (1.3, 2.7) RCP6.0
3.3 ± 0.6 (2.2, 4.4) RCP8.5
Polar Arctic
2.2 ± 1.7 (-0.5, 5.0) RCP2.6
4.2 ± 1.6 (1.6, 6.9) RCP4.5
5.2 ± 1.9 (2.1, 8.3) RCP6.0
8.3 ± 1.9 (5.2, 11.4) RCP8.5
Polar: Antarctic
0.8 ± 0.6 (-0.2, 1.8) RCP2.6
1.5 ± 0.7 (0.3, 2.7) RCP4.5
1.7 ± 0.9 (0.2, 3.2) RCP6.0
3.1 ± 1.2 (1.1, 5.1) RCP8.5
http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/
*Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The pathways are used for climate modeling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways
So when you state that by the end of this century, Global Warming could be as low as 1.3º C you are quoting the lower end [and not even the lowest] of a probability.
According to the four models published in the report, it could be as low [globally] as 0.3º C (.54º F) and as high as 4.8º C (8.64º F).
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