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Guys, we need to look at actual supplies - not theoretical shortages. Look at the local apple store for clues. While I agree that the largest retailers like amazon are leading indicators I think the refresh might only be imminent once supplies on the whole become low. We should start seeing tons of articles going on about how abc reseller and xyz reseller are out of stock, no one cab guarantee stock while at the same time apple being dead silent in the face of negative publicity.
I live in south Africa, which I do admit is not a leading indicator by any standard, however every single apple store can guarantee stock and, more importantly, can also guarantee stock of all mbps from it's source - apple Europe.
So I'm saying that I do believe the shortages have started however there is still a long way to go before it becomes noticeable to the average consumer (not the one anxiously following the rumor sites)