TiVo Stock Rises on Rumors of Apple TV Deal

[jettredmont]

Maybe Apple's gonna outright buy Tivo.

Not sure what to make of this.

Asset 1: Tivo patent library / knowledge / engineering team. This could be valuable, if Apple wants to move in on this space. On the other hand, it doesn't seem applicable at all to Apple's current line.

Asset 2: Tivo's UI. Well, that once would have been valuable, again, if Apple wanted to build a DVR. I haven't been in the market for a DVR in a few years, but I've heard quite a few people who think other DVR UIs are significantly better than Tivo's. And, it's now all Flash-base, which obviously won't cut it for an iOS device or really anything Apple puts out.

Asset 3: Market share. I'm not sure there's much to speak of here, at least as an independent entity. Tivo market share, last I saw, was dwarfed by the provider-linked boxes. Does Tivo have any partner agreements that might be valuable here? IF Apple wanted to go into the DVR market to compete with the service providers, Tivo might have a desirable market share, but I just can't see that being a driving factor here.

Of all the above, I think the only viable impetus for Apple moving on Tivo would be the first, and that one only if Apple wanted to provide a DVR functionality to the AppleTV or Mac platforms. If I were El Gato I'd be concerned with this news, but in general I think Apple has bet heavily on a move away from fixed-stream broadcast distribution (which requires time-shifting and recording) to on-demand distribution models.

IMHO, Tivo's lifeblood is in decline, and that decline will only become more apparent in the coming years. They had a shot at being a pivotal technology, and unfortunately were significantly thwarted by the service providers' machinations. I don't think the general broadcast model is going to survive long enough for Tivo to make itself relevant again.

That having been said, while local stations are required to broadcast digital streams out into the air, there will continue to be a (shrinking, but not completely gone) market for uses of that broadcast stream. Again, El Gato has a strong foothold here in the Mac-based HTPC niche already, and Huappage et al on the PC side of things; these companies would have the most to lose from Apple paying attention to DVR time-shifting technologies.

 

[firewood]

What you meant to say was, "Apple could do some amazing stuff with TiVo's patent portfolio."

Maybe Apple is already doing stuff covered by TiVo's patent portfolio. And maybe buying them turns out to be better for both outfits than any patent licensing deal. And Apple certainly doesn't want that patent portfolio to fall in the hands of Google (even though Google is now residing in some of the former SGI buildings where a lot of that interactive TV stuff was invented by and under the crew that eventually founded TiVo.)

 

[addicted44]

More likely,

This is just some Hedge Fund trying to dump some TiVo stock spreading false rumors.

 

[Cappy]

Too big of a change in Apple philosophy. As much as I would love to see this kind of partnership, it just isn't going to happen.

What exactly do you think is Apple's philosophy?

Apple isn't a stranger to licensing something they deem of value to them...Amazon's 1-Click and then itunes' mp3 codec though I believe they now do their mp3 codec. There are many more but much of it isn't all that glamorous for fanboys to care to keep up with.

People once said the following was too big of change in Apple philosophy...

1. Apple won't sell a device where the display is going to have greasy finger prints all over it.
2. Apple won't get into the ad business.

 

[Benjamins]

although chances of this happening is really slim, but I would love to see that happen.

 

[1984]

For those who haven't followed TiVo recently, they launched the Premiere DVR with a Flash-based HD user interface. It is very slow, buggy as hell, crashes constantly and is incomplete in many areas. Essentially anyone who buys one is a beta tester. They typically end up switching it back to the older SD interface (which fortunately is still an option) but they lose all the features the new interface was supposed to bring. They also hyped it beyond believe stating "Inventing the DVR was only the beginning" which beats Apple's "Beyond the rumor sites. Way beyond" by a mile considering how bad the TiVo Premiere ended up being. It can only be described as one of the worst product launches in history.

If the rumor is true, and I very much doubt it is, it would be Apple buying out TiVo not using their technology. The TiVo Premiere hardware is almost as fast as an iPhone 3GS but not quite. It would be great if Apple bought TiVo and gave it their own user interface but I don't see it happening.

 

[centauratlas]

I agree the TiVo has the best interface for DVRs now (I liked the old ReplayTV better, but...). That said, it is not as polished as the Apple TV, it is close, but things are not as finished as Apple TV. I have the HD (not Premiere) and it is pretty good.

My thoughts:
1. Apple could use the back-end TiVo tech (e.g. directory, tuner etc) in an Apple box. But none of that is really complex and complicated stuff.
2. But (as the article says) that conflicts with the little internal storage.
3. TiVo isn't making money.
4. TiVo has patents and talent.

My bet IF anything was done would be some type of interest in TiVo - either an outright buyout or more likely some investment in return for some technology (licensing, directory etc - not UI, Apple would do that themselves, but the back-end).

There are three positives I see for Apple:
1. Patents. To me it seems there is little that Apple could not do easily on its own unless it is patent encumbered.
2. Quicker time to market if they want an updated Apple TV that includes DVR *and* Apple hasn't been working on the DVR portion.
3. User base is large and loyal.

Maybe there are other things that TiVo and Apple have been working on that Apple could use, but nothing I know of. Just seems unlikely.

I know that TiVo is not a money making operation...but by far have the best DVRs around as far as interface is concerned.

 

[wildcardd]

What if it is Tivo providing an app that happens to interface with AppleTV? Like the YouTube app or Netflix.

If you already own a Tivo, you can stream any of the shows to your Apple TV device (or iPad or iPhone).

This seems more plausible.

 

[elppa]

When Jobs spoke of taking “big, bold” risks I don't think he was talking about purchasing TiVo.

I have been wrong in the past though.

 

[decksnap]

At this point they may feel like they have to make a move like this to defend against google buying Tivo first.

 

[katfish711]

For those who haven't followed TiVo recently <snip>
If the rumor is true, and I very much doubt it is, it would be Apple buying out TiVo not using their technology. The TiVo Premiere hardware is almost as fast as an iPhone 3GS but not quite. It would be great if Apple bought TiVo and gave it their own user interface but I don't see it happening.

Well I guess I fall into the camp of "not following TiVo recently" but...

I definitely recall seeing copyright notices within the menu screens of my TiVo. (You have to go deep into the setup menus to find the licensing stuff but it is there.) Guess what? There was a time not too long ago when TiVo was using Apple's networking technology. The statements to that effect were plainly visible if you looked for them.

Maybe its just Bonjour stuff but it still denotes a level of engineering cooperation or licensing that has been in place for several years already.

 

[jaw04005]

I don't see it happening.

Apple just doesn't need TiVo. They have nothing of value to offer except patents, and Apple has repeatedly told analysts that Apple TV would not transition into a DVR device.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article..._tv_as_cable_set_top_box_apple_exec_says.html

If they were going to purchase a DVR company, it would be someone smaller like El Gato (that coincidentally uses QuickTime as a backend for their software), not Flash and Linux-based TiVo.

If someone should buy TiVo, it should be a generic cable box maker like Scientific Atlanta or Motorola since that's who most of TiVo's customers are anyway.

 

[addicted44]

I don't see it happening.
Apple has repeatedly told analysts that Apple TV would not transition into a DVR device.

With the news about media companies refusing to license stuff to Apple, they might have realized this is the only way they can make AppleTV effective.

 

[SockRolid]

Not going to happen

Seriously, this would be huge and really an amazing mode for Apple. They would have another built-in customer base who's credit cards are on file. It would not be a big deal to "leave" Tivo as a sub company but have control and use of all its tech on the Apple side of the house.

Not really. TiVo's subscriber base is barely more than 3 million. Sure, that number is probably bigger than the number of Apple TV users. But compared to > 100 million iOS users, it's peanuts.

It would I think purchasing Tivo for Apple would be inexpensive way to gain market share.

Yes, it would more than double Apple's "TV market share." But it would just be combining Apple's thin slice of the pie with TiVo's thin slice of the pie. It wouldn't make the pie itself bigger. It wouldn't change the status quo or increase Apple's or TiVo's profits.

Apple's success comes from redefining markets in its own image, then dominating and expanding those markets. (E.g. iPod in portable music players, iPhone in smartphones, and iPod touch + iPad in mobile computing.) That's what makes Apple a leader in consumer electronics.

Recording random cable or satellite TV content on an Apple TV is never going to happen. Why not? Because there is no reason for Apple to do add that feature to Apple TV, because it doesn't connect in any way with iTunes. And iTunes is the foundation on which Apple built the success of iPod, iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad.

There might be some other feature (or patent) that Apple is interested in. Maybe rewinding, pausing, and slow-motion replay of streamed movies from iTunes? Or something to do with that massive server farm they're building in North Carolina?

 

[NinjaHERO]

Personally I always thought Directv was going to buy Tivo.

If Apple bought them and integrated it into Apple TV, that might be a very interesting device. Maybe then I could tivo Hulu and fast forward thru the commercials.

 

[GregA]

One TiVo can watch the content of another TiVo, in another room.
Letting the AppleTV watch content recorded on a TiVo elsewhere might fit better with "the Apple Way".

Similarly, renting Apple movies on a TiVo, or syncing/streaming a TiVo with iTunes.. this makes more sense than an Apple TiVo.

It is unclear, however, what aspect of TiVo technology would be brought to the Apple TV. Rumors have pointed to a dramatic overhaul of Apple's set-top box, bringing a new design based on that of the iPhone 4 with an iOS-based user interface and limited physical storage. While the device could pair with a Time Capsule device for expanded local storage, the focus of the new Apple TV, said to be priced at $99, would be on streaming.

Yes. An AppleTV with TiVO would end up looking much more like a TiVo than an AppleTV. TiVo NEEDS a huge hard disk for recording the FTA stuff.

It seems difficult to believe that something like the TiVo interface would come to the Apple TV given Apple's insistence not only controlling as much of its products as it can but also simply in delivering a consistent "Apple" look and feel for its software.

Agreed.

It is possible that the Apple TV could use some of TiVo's underlying technology for some aspects of the its functionality, although rumors of limited onboard storage would seem to complicate its use as a DVR, TiVo's primary area of expertise.

Yes. As I said above, if Apple is putting TiVo technology in the AppleTV, it'll end up looking more like a TiVo!

But the underlying technology for TiVo could be interesting. Perhaps they can make quite a different AppleDVR with underlying TiVo smarts for programming recordings and finding interesting content etc. Partner that with the AppleTV (streaming only) device.

 

[balamw]

Sigh. Is it that time of year again? Just in time for me to renew my TiVo subscripton.

Some kind of iTunes/TiVo integration would be wonderful, but seems very unlikely.

It would be in TiVo's interest, but I can't see the play for Apple. TiVo will work with anything//anyone Amazon, Netflix, ... I love the TiVo connector for my HP MediaSmart server. It lets me offload programs from the TiVo and restore them later from the TiVo itself. (Easier than iTiVo/pyTiVo).

Of course, with my luck it'll only be supported by the Premiere units, and not my HD XL.

B

 

[CWallace]

I also don't see what Tivo brings to Apple in general and tv in particular.

You're not going to see a $99 DVR (especially with no local HDD storage), which means that we'd be looking at something more expensive than the current $229 (especially if they transition to an Al enclosure like the Mini now sports).

Also, it goes against the iTMS model. Apple wants you to buy a television episode not just to play on your tv, but also on your iPad, iPhone and/or iPhone Touch - one piece of media content can drive multiple Apple hardware sales. A DVR means only the tv can playback the content.

Apple does not need Tivo to put Netflix or Amazon on an tv. And with applications like pyTivoX, I am able to stream my own ripped/downloaded MP4s, MKVs and M4Vs from my iMac to my Tivo and watch them on my LCD.

 

[klrobinson999]

Apple has created partnerships before, so it wouldn't be out of the question. However, buying TiVo outright and making it a part of the Apple ecosystem would seem to make greater business sense.

If Apple TV is to be successful, it must have DVR functionality. Period. The current format of TV is not going away any time soon, no matter what Steve Jobs wishes.

Existing TiVo boxes could be updated with new software, including iTunes and Front Row. The App store could be expanded for TV apps.

Existing Apple TV boxes could be updated with TiVo software sans cable coax hookup (although cable box to Component cable could be offered)

Future boxes would have direct access to Apple's cloud and other offerings. What if Apple created a box with a front camera? FaceTime on the TV!

The TV is the last great screen that the computer companies have yet to capture. Apple could do a lot worse than by teaming up with TiVo.

 

[retroneo]

If the new Apple TV has not just a HDMI output, but also one or two HDMI inputs, it could truly be the centre of your living room.

Tivo could create an iOS based app which controls your TiVo.

You could open an app and your PS3 is on the TV.

You could do away with the mess of remote controls...

 

[timbloom]

iAds

I think a real driver here would be iAds. TiVo has had integrated ads for a while now, and the tech to trigger them during certain commercials. Seems to me like it's a perfect fit for apples iAd system. Buy out or not, I think there's a serious market for iAds on live tv, and it may be that Apple knows this. Better pick it up before google does.

 

[macpro2000]

I would love for this marriage to be announced.

 

[goobot]

If the new Apple TV has not just a HDMI output, but also one or two HDMI inputs, it could truly be the centre of your living room.

Tivo could create an iOS based app which controls your TiVo.

You could open an app and your PS3 is on the TV.

You could do away with the mess of remote controls...

I pretty sure there are things like this already

 

[1984]

This is what the TiVo Premiere interface looks like. LINK It can often take half a minute for this screen to populate. Even screens with just text take 10 seconds or so.

 

[klrobinson999]

The first thing Apple would do is get rid of the Flash-based UI. A speedier iOS coupled with the A4 chip would make TiVo the fastest DVR around.

I just don't see how Apple intends to compete for the living room if they don't offer full DVR. Is the Google TV box going to have a DVR? If so, then Apple needs to go whole hog. For DVRs, there is no better company than TiVo. Why not appropriate the best?

Apple could easily buy out TiVo and do away with the name, just like LaLa. The technology is solid and the talent they would acquire would pay for itself. The TiVo brand is a powerful one, though, so marketing-wise they would be foolish not to keep it.

I, for one, would LOVE for this to happen!