Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2006

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
38,006
4,314
Los Angeles
It's time once again for my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
The legend of column headings follows the chart. Comments and further explanations follow in the next post.

Measurements were taken yesterday. I've computed these numbers just for fun and to be a point of discussion. The rules clearly prohibit posting to pad your post count.

Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2006

Code:
                      Cur    Cur    Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts  Rate   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  -----  ----  -----
  1   Mr. Anderson    21037    5.5    1      0
  2   wdlove          16588   11.3    2      0
  3   eyelikeart      12119    0.0    3      0
  4   edesignuk       11284    7.4    5     +1
  5   Rower_CPU       10853    0.8    4     -1
  6   Doctor Q        10082   11.7    6      0
  7   mad jew          8722   34.3   --     --
  8   ~Shard~          8558   21.6   24    +16
  9   jefhatfield      8208    2.3    7     -2
 10   bousozoku        8129    6.8   11     +1
 11   Sun Baked        7767    6.6   12     +1
 12   jelloshotsrule   7670    2.2    9     -3
 13   mkrishnan        7421   14.3   23    +10
 14   MacBandit        7381    0.2    8     -6
 15   jsw              7002    7.7   16     +1
 16   MrMacman         6915    0.0   10     -6
 17   Nermal           6892    9.0   18     +1
 18   scem0            6426    4.5   15     -3
 19   Lacero           6258   18.0   --     --
 20   arn              6099    2.0   13     -7
 21   iJon             5879    1.2   14     -7
 22   iGAV             5838    4.0   19     -3
 23   Chip NoVaMac     5655    6.6   26     +3
 24   Abstract         5652    9.3   30     +6
 25   Blue Velvet      5523   11.0   37    +12
Code:
 26   PlaceofDis       5513    9.0   32     +6
 27   shadowfax        5485    0.1   17    -10
 28   rainman::|:|     5470    2.3   20     -8
 29   vniow            5375    2.3   22     -7
 30   yellow           5319   12.6   49    +19
 31   iGary            5295   14.8   --     --
 32   wrldwzrd89       5162    1.1   21    -11
 33   nagromme         5063    8.2   36     +3
 34   AlphaTech        4562    0.0   25     -9
 35   Mitthrawnuruodo  4537   11.6   --     --
 36   emw              4493    8.9   --     --
 37   Mechcozmo        4321    4.1   35     -2
 38   krossfyter       4260    0.4   27    -11
 39   Counterfit       4234    5.4   42     +3
 40   Backtothemac     4226    0.6   28    -12
 41   Applespider      4115    9.7   --     --
 42   SiliconAddict    4046    5.6   48     +6
 43   iMeowbot         3994   10.3   --     --
 44   Powerbook G5     3986    0.1   29    -15
 45   virividox        3931    0.0   31    -14
 46   CanadaRAM        3858   12.5   --     --
 47   Dont Hurt Me     3842    1.9   38     -9
 48   cb911            3784    0.5   34    -14
 49   jxyama           3754    0.0   33    -16
 50   stoid            3711    1.5   40    -10
Columns:
  1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
  3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership, whichever is smaller.
  5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of six months ago (July 2005), or "--" for those who are new to the Top 50.
  6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Quick links to posts below:
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
38,006
4,314
Los Angeles
Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

--- Length of membership ---

Mean average: 36.3 months (up 4.8 since 6 months ago)
Standard deviation: 12.9 months (up 1.7 since 6 months ago)

Highest: jefhatfield, 65.8 months
Second-highest: eyelikeart, 60.0 months
Second-lowest: CanadaRAM, 14.8 months
Lowest: Lacero, 11.4 months

Number of members in the Top 50 by length of membership:
between 5 and 6 years: 2 members (up 2)
between 4 and 5 years: 6 members (up 2)
between 3 and 4 years: 20 members (down 1)
between 2 and 3 years: 10 members (down 5)
between 1 and 2 years: 11 members (up 2)
less than 1 year: 1 member

--- Changed members ---

Eight new members joined the Top 50 list:
mad jew (#7), Lacero (#19), iGary (#31), Mitthrawnuruodo (#35), emw (#36), Applespider (#41), iMeowbot (#43), CanadaRAM (#46)

mad jew and Lacero, both new to the Top 50, are in the Top 25.

Eight members are no longer in the Top 50 list:
aswitcher, job, Mudbug, teabgs, Kwyjibo, Durandal7, mac15, mischief
None were ranked higher than #39 last time.

--- Changes in rank ---

Highest rise in rank, up 19 slots:
yellow

Next highest:
~Shard~ (up 16), Blue Velvet (up 12), mkrishnan (up 10)

Note: ~Shard~ has moved up 28 slots since a year ago.

Highest loss in rank, down 16 slots:
jxyama

Next highest:
Powerbook G5 (down 15), virividox and cb911 (each down 14), Backtothemac (down 12), wrldwzrd89 and krossfyter (each down 11), shadowfax and stoid (each down 10)

In July 2004, Powerbook G5 had the third highest posting rate of any member, but has had only 15 net posts in the past 6 months.

Four members managed to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (#1), wdlove (#2), eyelikeart (#3), Doctor Q (#6)

wdlove kept his spot despite not having posted since November, while eyelikeart managed to do so without posting at all over the measurement period.

Changes in The Top 10: edesignuk (now #4) swapped spots with Rower_CPU (now #5). mad jew appeared for the first time on the Top 50, way up at the #7 spot, while ~Shard~ continued climbing and is now #8. bousozoku, who slipped off the Top 10 last time, is back at #10.

No longer in the Top 10: MacBandit, jelloshotsrule, MrMacman.

--- Excluded members and posts ---

Members Macrumors and MacBytes, who represent site posts, not real members, are excluded.

Unregistered or banned members are not included and will not be discussed further, by site policy. For the record, King Cobra would have been #25. Former member tazo finally fell off the list.

Post counts used for computations are "net posts", those that contribute to the post count as displayed in member profiles. Posts that are deleted do not count, nor do posts in threads that are deleted or threads in non-counted forums, incuding the Wasteland.

--- Posts ---

Highest number of posts in 6 months:
mad jew, with 6310

Next-highest:
~Shard~, with 3980, iGary with 2724, mkrishnan with 2636. There were 10 members with 6-month post counts over 2000 and another 14 with post counts between 1000 and 2000.

These measurements are only for members returning to the Top 50. Lacero is new to the Top 50 list but otherwise would have been listed here.

stoid, #50 on the list, had a safe margin of over 200 posts over solvs, who missed the list by placing #51.

Lowest:
Three members stayed in the Top 50 despite having no posts in the last six month: eyelikeart, AlphaTech, jxyama.

Next-lowest:
MrMacman had only 1 net post in 6 months. virividox had 6.

Four members made more than 1000 posts in 6 months yet did not make the Top 50: clayj, zelmo, GFLPraxis, gwuMACaddict
 

revenuee

macrumors 68020
Sep 13, 2003
2,251
1
whatever happened to eyelikeart --- i miss him and the original drunk thread ... oh well

i remember back in the day when Dr. Q did the END OF TIME extrapolation

i think i was well in the top 50 -- haha ... how things change i guess
 

Kwyjibo

macrumors 68040
Nov 5, 2002
3,809
0
I've fallen from such great heights.

Originally predicted to be #29 all time, then 25, then 37, now off the chart ...

with the fact that WDLOVE left too ... that sort of effects it but won't ever really since he had so many posts
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
38,006
4,314
Los Angeles
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2006

Code:
Proj  Projection      Proj   Curr  Delta
Rank  Jul. 4, 2006    Posts  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  ----  -----
  1   Mr. Anderson    22035    1      0
  2   wdlove          18640    2      0
  3   mad jew         14963    7     +4
  4   edesignuk       12631    4      0
  5   ~Shard~         12495    8     +3
  6   Doctor Q        12205    6      0
  7   eyelikeart      12119    3     -4
  8   Rower_CPU       11000    5     -3
  9   mkrishnan       10028   13     +4
 10   Lacero           9531   19     +9
 11   bousozoku        9368   10     -1
 12   Sun Baked        8968   11     -1
 13   jefhatfield      8618    9     -4
 14   Nermal           8522   17     +3
 15   jsw              8412   15      0
 16   jelloshotsrule   8076   12     -4
 17   iGary            7989   31    +14
 18   yellow           7609   30    +12
 19   Blue Velvet      7520   25     +6
 20   MacBandit        7426   14     -6
 21   Abstract         7341   24     +3
 22   scem0            7251   18     -4
 23   PlaceofDis       7153   26     +3
 24   MrMacman         6916   16     -8
 25   Chip NoVaMac     6849   23     -2
Code:
 26   Mitthrawnuruodo  6640   35     +9
 27   iGAV             6573   22     -5
 28   nagromme         6557   33     +5
 29   arn              6455   20     -9
 30   CanadaRAM        6138   46    +16
 31   emw              6108   36     +5
 32   iJon             6095   21    -11
 33   devilot          6032   --     --
 34   rainman::|:|     5881   28     -6
 35   Applespider      5878   41     +6
 36   iMeowbot         5875   43     +7
 37   vniow            5794   29     -8
 38   shadowfax        5498   27    -11
 39   wrldwzrd89       5366   32     -7
 40   clayj            5225   --     --
 41   Counterfit       5213   39     -2
 42   katie ta achoo   5204   --     --
 43   Mechcozmo        5075   37     -6
 44   SiliconAddict    5073   42     -2
 45   AlphaTech        4562   34    -11
 46   solvs            4386   --     --
 47   zelmo            4355   --     --
 48   Backtothemac     4344   40     -8
 49   krossfyter       4332   38    -11
 50   ITASOR           4304   --     --
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection Jul. 4, 2006 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Curr Rank = current rank, as of January 2006, or "--" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 

Doctor Q

Administrator
Original poster
Staff member
Sep 19, 2002
38,006
4,314
Los Angeles
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (as shown by the forum software) and post rates over the last 6 months.

The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks recently from their usual posting habits. The latter category includes me, since I was in Japan for almost a month.

AlphaTech's estimate is almost certainly accurate, since he has not posted in almost 2 years. Based on the estimates for others, that leaves him ranked #45 in 6 months.

I still don't know if eyelikeart will return to regular posting.

The post estimate for wdlove is almost certainly off, either too high or too low, depending on whether or not he returns to the forums. He has not posted since November and I don't know if he will be back. Although his estimated post count is in doubt, his rank is very likely to remain #2 because if he returned today his estimated posts would still trail Mr. Anderson, and if he does not post for the next 6 months he would still lead mad jew, based on estimated post count.

--- Changed members ---

Six members projected to join the Top 50 list:
devilot (#33), clayj (#40), katie ta achoo (#42), solvs (#46), zelmo (#47), ITASOR (#50)

Six members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
Powerbook G5 (by 125 posts), virividox, Dont Hurt Me, cb911, jxyama, stoid

Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
GFLPraxis -- missed by 234 posts
gwuMACaddict -- missed by 262 posts

--- Changes in rank ---

At the top: Mr. Anderson and wdlove retain their #1 and #2 positions, but mad jew passes eyelikeart for the #3 spot. ~Shard~ replaces Rower_CPU at #5, surrounded by edesignuk and Doctor Q, who stay at #4 and #6.

With eyelikeart at #7 and Rower_CPU at #8, the remaining Top 10 spots go to mkrishnan (#9) and Lacero (#10). The Top 9 are all projected to have over 10,000 posts, with Mr. Anderson still the only member with over 20,000.

The projection from 6 months ago showed edesignuk arriving in the #3 spot, but that was before mad jew moved into contention.

Highest projected rise in rank:
CanadaRAM (up 22 slots)

Next highest:
iGary (up 14 slots), yellow (up 12 slots), Lacero and Mitthrawnuruodo (each up 9 slots)

Yellow was projected to gain 11 slots in the 6-month projections last time, and in fact went up 19 slots. These 12 are in addition to those, making the projected ascent 31 slots in a year.

Highest projected loss in rank, a four-way tie, each down 11 slots:
iJon, shadowfax, AlphaTech, krossfyter
Of those four, only iJon posts more than once a day, on average.

Next highest:
arn (down 9)
MrMacman, vniow, Backtothemac (each down 8)

Five members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (#1), wdlove (#2), edesignuk (#4), Doctor Q (#6), jsw (#15).

Two members are projected to change rank by only one slot:
bousozoku and Sun Baked (each down 1)

--- Excluded members ---

For the record, King Cobra would have been #38.

--- Trivia ---

Yvan256, who ranked #50 on the "end of time" chart six months ago, is posting at a slower rate than previously, and would rank #100 on a six-month projection of the Top 100. He must like multiples of 50!
 

devilot

Moderator emeritus
May 1, 2005
15,588
1
Haha, I figured you'd be posting these stats soon. :eek: They're a bit embarrassing, but still interesting. Thanks for the extra bit of geekiness, Doctor Q. :p
 

PlaceofDis

macrumors Core
Jan 6, 2004
19,238
4
glad that i'm still in the top 50. i think.
i haven't been posting as much as i used to. but you guys and gals are stuck with me here.
especially this time of year. when work is slow. and i'm here by myself thus able to post on MR at work! yay! i feel as if i'm part of the club now.

okay, seriously. Mad Jew, do you ever sleep?

back to work!
 

zelmo

macrumors 603
Jul 3, 2004
5,490
1
Mac since 7.5
I don't know what is more astounding, Doctor Q and his powers of data analysis, or Mad Jew averaging over 30 posts per day....

I think the next 6 months will show a rededication to MR on the part of Lacero.;)

So, if I spost™ really hard over the next 6 months, I could crack the Top 50? Hey, I guess everyone needs to have a goal, right?:rolleyes:
 

PlaceofDis

macrumors Core
Jan 6, 2004
19,238
4
zelmo said:
I don't know what is more astounding, Doctor Q and his powers of data analysis, or Mad Jew averaging over 30 posts per day....

I think the next 6 months will show a rededication to MR on the part of Lacero.;)

So, if I spost™ really hard over the next 6 months, I could crack the Top 50? Hey, I guess everyone needs to have a goal, right?:rolleyes:

haha hey you posted over a 1000 times in the past six months. you have a shot, never know right? :D

i think Lacero and Mad Jew are going to duke it out for the top spot eventually. Mr. Anderson watch out!
 

GFLPraxis

macrumors 604
Mar 17, 2004
7,113
419
Doctor Q said:
Four members made more than 1000 posts in 6 months yet did not make the Top 50: clayj, zelmo, GFLPraxis, gwuMACaddict
Yay, I got mentioned :D Thanks!

EDIT:
GFLPraxis -- missed by 234 posts
NOOOOO! SO CLOSE! :(

Does that make me number 51?
 

barneygumble

macrumors 6502a
Apr 18, 2005
726
0
At this rate mad jew has only 37.23 days to go to show us all what lies above 601, i think that is almost more exiting than macworld:eek:
 
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