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I honestly don't know how people go up so fast, and spend so much time on the site. I keep it open at work but I don't post unless I feel I can contribute something. I don't understand how some people post 50 times in the same thread. I guess I have a life, but I am still easily in the top 100.
 
Doctor Q said:
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (as shown by the forum software) and post rates over the last 6 months.

Two members are projected to change rank by only one slot:
bousozoku and Sun Baked (each down 1)
Looks like bousozoku and I are getting passed by all the MR spambots.
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barneygumble said:
At this rate mad jew has only 37.23 days to go to show us all what lies above 601, i think that is almost more exiting than macworld:eek:

Some of us already know ;)
 
maya said:
Can we have a "Top 100 List." Pretty please Doctor Q. :)
Here. I made it just for you. ;)

If you mean can I gather and analyze twice as much data, I checked and my wife says no I can't. :rolleyes:
 
Yay I'm in the projection! I would have made it to this list, but I found that school is another effective method of not having a life.

Maybe... maybe...:rolleyes:
 
It's "Official"...

Doctor Q said:
Yellow was projected to gain 11 slots in the 6-month projections last time, and in fact went up 19 slots. These 12 are in addition to those, making the projected ascent 31 slots in a year.

...I have no life.



Thanks Doc, I love it when you get all statistical!

Here's a (bag of Japanese) cookie(s on a G4 Powerbook):



BourbonChocolateCracker.jpg
 
Nermal said:
Not a chance :p

Right let the belittling begin, Macworld is a pathetic show that does nothing but inflate a certain cordueroy wearing individuals ego, Banal and boring products are released that seriosly make me question why i use apple products:mad:

P.S I am so sorry

P.P.S Truly I am, i mean nothing by it

P.P.P.S I wonder how many more ignore lists i just got myself onto
 
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2006

Code:
Proj  Projection      LongTerm  Curr  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
  1   Lacero           17.98     19    +18
  2   wdlove           14.17      2      0
  3   devilot          14.06     --     --
  4   Mr. Anderson     13.80      1     -3
  5   mad jew          13.63      7     +2
  6   katie ta achoo   12.16     --     --
  7   jsw              10.64     15     +8
  8   mkrishnan        10.24     13     +5
  9   Blue Velvet      10.08     25    +16
 10   clayj             9.60     --     --
 11   ITASOR            9.14     --     --
 12   ~Shard~           9.07      8     -4
 13   iGary             9.02     31    +18
 14   emw               8.66     36    +22
 15   CanadaRAM         8.59     46    +31
 16   Doctor Q          8.39      6    -10
 17   edesignuk         8.18      4    -13
 18   Mechcozmo         8.08     37    +19
 19   Chip NoVaMac      7.65     23     +4
 20   PlaceofDis        7.57     26     +6
 21   eva01             7.56     --     --
 22   Rower_CPU         7.00      5    -17
 23   Mitthrawnuruodo   6.83     35    +12
 24   eyelikeart        6.63      3    -21
 25   yellow            6.61     30     +5
Code:
 26   maya              6.41     --     --
 27   bousozoku         6.31     10    -17
 28   Nermal            6.14     17    -11
 29   efoto             6.14     --     --
 30   MacBandit         5.94     14    -16
 31   Sun Baked         5.86     11    -20
 32   Platform          5.82     --     --
 33   dotdotdot         5.82     --     --
 34   Applespider       5.76     41     +7
 35   zelmo             5.49     --     --
 36   wrldwzrd89        5.48     32     -4
 37   jelloshotsrule    5.38     12    -25
 38   Abstract          5.12     24    -14
 39   scem0             5.07     18    -21
 40   Counterfit        4.88     39     -1
 41   munkle            4.73     --     --
 42   iMeowbot          4.66     43     +1
 43   virividox         4.53     45     +2
 44   shadowfax         4.51     27    -17
 45   Daveway           4.47     --     --
 46   SiliconAddict     4.36     42     -4
 47   Powerbook G5      4.31     44     -3
 48   GFLPraxis         4.29     --     --
 49   vniow             4.25     29    -20
 50   aswitcher         4.24     --     --
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on overall post rate since joining MacRumors.
  3. LongTerm Rate = average # posts per day by that member over their entire membership.
  4. Curr Rank = current rank, as of January 2006, or "--" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
 
Comments on the End of Time Projections

I made the chart in the previous post based on the post rate over each member's total length of membership. Current post counts do not affect this computation, since over time a member posting more frequently will overtake those posting less frequently.

The longer someone has been a member, the more likely it is that their post rate has reached a steady state. Some members speed up after an initial period of lurking, while others slow down afer an initial flurry, and there is no simple way to predict this. To mitigate this effect, I always include only those who have been members 6 months or more. In this case, it didn't make any difference since no new members from the last 6 months are in the Top 50 based on post rate.

--- At the Top ---

At these overal post rates, there's going to be quite a shakeup between now and the end of time. There are nine members averaging over 10 posts a day, led by Lacero, projected to be #1 at the end of time.

Only three of the over-10-a-day group are in the current Top 10: Mr. Anderson (currently #1, projected to drop to #5), wdlove (currently #2 and projected to stay there), and mad jew (currently #7 and projected to move up to #5).

Moving into the Top 10 from elsewhere in the current Top 50 are jsw, mkrishnan, and Blue Velvet.

Meanwhile, three members not in the current Top 50 assume spots in the Top 10: devilot, katie ta achoo, and clayj!

--- Post Rates ---

A change in posting habits by a long-term member, even over 6 months, will affect their long-term rate less than it would a shorter term member.

Post rates have dropped very little for Mr. Anderson (down 1.15 posts/day), wdlove (down 0.53 posts/day), and jsw (down 1.13 posts/day), so the new faces at the Top 10 arrived with record high post rates, not because leaders dropped off.

A few post rates of members in the Top 15 have gone up: mkrishnan (up 1.40 posts/day), Blue Velvet (up 0.45 posts/day), emw (up 0.12 posts/day)

edesignuk, whose post rate is very consistent (it dropped by only 0.12 posts/day), is nevertheless projected to drop from his current #4 position nearly out of the Top 20, to #17.

Mechcozmo, who was posting at over 12 posts/day in the first half of 2005, has dropped over 2 posts/day yet is still climbing the Top 50 end-of-time chart. Positive velocity, negative acceleration.

--- Changed members ---

Compared to the Top 50 today, the end-of-time Top 50 is vastly different.

Fourteen members projected to join the Top 50 list:
devilot, katie ta achoo, clayj, ITASOR, eva01, maya, efoto, Platform, dotdotdot, zelmo, munkle, Daveway, GFLPraxis, aswitcher

Fourteen members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
MrMacman, iGAV, iJon, jefhatfield, rainman::|:|, nagromme, jxyama, arn, Dont Hurt Me, AlphaTech, krossfyter, Backtothemac, cb911, stoid

Only wdlove is projected to retain the position he has now, at #2 but, as I said earlier, his status is in doubt. Still, even if he does not resume posting, his overall rate will take a while to drop, as the example of AlphaTech shows.

Member projected to miss staying in the Top 50 list by a mere 0.03 posts/day (less than one post a month): MrMacman

--- Changes in rank ---

Highest projected rise in rank:
CanadaRAM, up an amazing 31 slots

Next highest:
emw, up 22 slots
Mechcozmo, up 19 slots
Lacero and iGary, each up 18 slots
Blue Velvet, up 16 slots

Highest projected loss in rank:
jelloshotsrule, down 25 slots

Next highest:
eyelikeart and scem0, each down 21 slots
Sun Baked and vniow, each down 20 slots
Rower_CPU, bousozoku, and shadowfax, each down 17 slots
MacBandit, down 16 slots

Special mention:
Platform and dotdotdot, neither currently in the Top 100, but projected to be #32 and #33

--- Excluded members ---

No members were excluded for being below the 6-month minimum and no inactive members would have been in the Top 50.

--- Trivia ---

There are more female members of the Top 50 than ever before, so the Glass MacRumors Ceiling is eroding.
 
Doctor Q said:
At these overall post rates, there's going to be quite a shakeup between now and the end of time. There are nine members averaging over 10 posts a day, led by Lacero, projected to be #1 at the end of time.
Me? Are you sure your data calculations are correct?
shifty.gif
 
Yay! I win!

wait.. I don't think I wanna win. :eek:

oh well, I never win anything. Long live KT's spamalicious posts/day count! ;)

but, my daily post count will be going down until around FEBRUARY TEN, I think.
After that, it'll be all KT, all the time. I'll beat mad jew good. :p
 
Lacero said:
Me? Are you sure your data calculations are correct?
No, because your post rate went from 17.98 when I made my calculations to 18.00 just now!
 
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