Comments on the End of Time Projections
I made the chart in the previous post based on the post rate over each member's total length of membership. Current post counts do not affect this computation, since over time a member posting more frequently will overtake those posting less frequently.
The longer someone has been a member, the more likely it is that their post rate has reached a steady state. Some members speed up after an initial period of lurking, while others slow down afer an initial flurry, and there is no simple way to predict this. To mitigate this effect, I always include only those who have been members 6 months or more. In this case, it didn't make any difference since no new members from the last 6 months are in the Top 50 based on post rate.
--- At the Top ---
At these overal post rates, there's going to be quite a shakeup between now and the end of time. There are nine members averaging over 10 posts a day, led by Lacero, projected to be #1 at the end of time.
Only three of the over-10-a-day group are in the current Top 10: Mr. Anderson (currently #1, projected to drop to #5), wdlove (currently #2 and projected to stay there), and mad jew (currently #7 and projected to move up to #5).
Moving into the Top 10 from elsewhere in the current Top 50 are jsw, mkrishnan, and Blue Velvet.
Meanwhile, three members not in the current Top 50 assume spots in the Top 10: devilot, katie ta achoo, and clayj!
--- Post Rates ---
A change in posting habits by a long-term member, even over 6 months, will affect their long-term rate less than it would a shorter term member.
Post rates have dropped very little for Mr. Anderson (down 1.15 posts/day), wdlove (down 0.53 posts/day), and jsw (down 1.13 posts/day), so the new faces at the Top 10 arrived with record high post rates, not because leaders dropped off.
A few post rates of members in the Top 15 have gone up: mkrishnan (up 1.40 posts/day), Blue Velvet (up 0.45 posts/day), emw (up 0.12 posts/day)
edesignuk, whose post rate is very consistent (it dropped by only 0.12 posts/day), is nevertheless projected to drop from his current #4 position nearly out of the Top 20, to #17.
Mechcozmo, who was posting at over 12 posts/day in the first half of 2005, has dropped over 2 posts/day yet is still climbing the Top 50 end-of-time chart. Positive velocity, negative acceleration.
--- Changed members ---
Compared to the Top 50 today, the end-of-time Top 50 is vastly different.
Fourteen members projected to join the Top 50 list:
devilot, katie ta achoo, clayj, ITASOR, eva01, maya, efoto, Platform, dotdotdot, zelmo, munkle, Daveway, GFLPraxis, aswitcher
Fourteen members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
MrMacman, iGAV, iJon, jefhatfield, rainman::|:|, nagromme, jxyama, arn, Dont Hurt Me, AlphaTech, krossfyter, Backtothemac, cb911, stoid
Only wdlove is projected to retain the position he has now, at #2 but, as I said earlier, his status is in doubt. Still, even if he does not resume posting, his overall rate will take a while to drop, as the example of AlphaTech shows.
Member projected to miss staying in the Top 50 list by a mere 0.03 posts/day (less than one post a month): MrMacman
--- Changes in rank ---
Highest projected rise in rank:
CanadaRAM, up an amazing 31 slots
Next highest:
emw, up 22 slots
Mechcozmo, up 19 slots
Lacero and iGary, each up 18 slots
Blue Velvet, up 16 slots
Highest projected loss in rank:
jelloshotsrule, down 25 slots
Next highest:
eyelikeart and scem0, each down 21 slots
Sun Baked and vniow, each down 20 slots
Rower_CPU, bousozoku, and shadowfax, each down 17 slots
MacBandit, down 16 slots
Special mention:
Platform and dotdotdot, neither currently in the Top 100, but projected to be #32 and #33
--- Excluded members ---
No members were excluded for being below the 6-month minimum and no inactive members would have been in the Top 50.
--- Trivia ---
There are more female members of the Top 50 than ever before, so the Glass MacRumors Ceiling is eroding.
