Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2008

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jan 6, 2008.

  1. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 10th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003: July
    2004: January, July
    2005: January, July
    2006: January, July
    2007: January, July

    The legend of column headings follows each chart, and the post following the charts have my comments and analysis.

    As tradition dictates, measurements were taken on January 3rd.

    These charts and the discussion here are simply for amusement and general interest. Posting in the forums simply to pad your post count is not permitted.

    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2008

    Code:
                           Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50   Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------   ------  ----  ----  -----
      1   mad jew          31,327  22.8    1      0
      2   Mr. Anderson     23,158   1.7    2      0
      3   jsw              19,970   6.3    3      0
      4   mkrishnan        19,657  16.0    5     +1
      5   Doctor Q         19,101  11.3    4     -1
      6   wdlove           16,647   0.0    6      0
      7   ~Shard~          16,594   6.0    7      0
      8   Blue Velvet      14,925  16.8   14     +6
      9   edesignuk        14,493   7.9    9      0
     10   bousozoku        14,161   4.3    8     -2
     11   PlaceofDis       13,366   7.2   12     +1
     12   devilot          13,246  11.7   17     +5
     13   iGary            13,137   1.1   10     -3
     14   yellow           12,900   5.0   13     -1
     15   Abstract         12,790   6.0   15      0
     16   eyelikeart       12,112   0.0   11     -5
     17   Eidorian         11,690  30.0  ---    ---
     18   WildCowboy       11,685  11.0   23     +5
     19   Rower_CPU        11,353   0.5   16     -3
     20   Sun Baked        10,689   5.6   24     +4
     21   raggedjimmi      10,523   5.8   26     +5
     22   Mitthrawnuruodo  10,504   4.9   25     +3
     23   bartelby         10,487  21.2   46    +23
     24   Nermal           10,459   3.6   21     -3
     25   CanadaRAM        10,434   8.0   27     +2
    Code:
                           Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50   Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------   ------  ----  ----  -----
     26   dmw007           10,317   1.5   19     -7
     27   emw              10,308   2.3   20     -7
     28   vniow            10,248   0.0   18    -10
     29   jelloshotsrule    9,744   0.2   22     -7
     30   iBlue             9,675  14.2   40    +10
     31   Applespider       9,258   4.6   30     -1
     32   jefhatfield       8,825   0.0   28     -4
     33   iMeowbot          8,814   0.8   29     -4
     34   arn               8,606   4.5   33     -1
     35   katie ta achoo    8,534   2.0   31     -4
     36   Jaffa Cake        8,458  10.2   47    +11
     37   iGAV              8,212   2.5   34     -3
     38   MacNut            8,202  16.2  ---    ---
     39   dynamicv          8,096   8.9   49    +10
     40   MacRumorUser      8,053   4.1   38     -2
     41   dcv               8,031   9.3  ---    ---
     42   nagromme          8,030   2.2   36     -6
     43   Chundles          7,977   1.0   32    -11
     44   robbieduncan      7,909   7.5   48     +4
     45   Chip NoVaMac      7,760   0.4   35    -10
     46   Mord              7,716   3.2   39     -7
     47   rdowns            7,695  13.4  ---    ---
     48   Lau               7,622   7.1  ---    ---
     49   IJ Reilly         7,502   8.2  ---    ---
     50   MacBandit         7,418   0.0   37    -13
    Columns:
    1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
    5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2007), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
     
  2. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Length of membership

    Mean average: 52.5 months (up 5.9 since 6 months ago)
    Standard deviation: 16.5 months (same as 6 months ago)

    As expected, the longest membership among active Top 50 posters is arn, at 80.9 months (6.7 years).
    Second place: Rower_CPU, 75.0 months (6.3 years)

    Third place: Mr. Anderson, 74.1 months (6.2 years)

    MrMacman, who was previous second after arn, is still active but no longer in the Top 50.
    Shortest: dynamicv, 22.0 months (1.8 years)
    Second-shortest: MacRumorUser, 28.4 months (2.4 years)

    Since dynamicv and MacRumorUser held those positions last time, we can see that no relatively new member has been able to break into the Top 50. It gets harder each year!
    The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red.

    Unlike 6 months ago, there is an apparent split between long-term members (5 to 6 years, the "class of 2002") and mid-term members (2 to 4 years, the "class of 2004" and the "class of 2005"). It's a generational war!

    These half-dozen "tweens" are bravely holding up the gap in the middle: ~Shard~, rdowns, Mord, iMeowbot, yellow, Chip NoVaMac.
     

    Attached Files:

  3. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #3
    Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

    Changed members

    Six new members joined the Top 50 list (the same number as last time). One made the Top 25:
    Eidorian (#17)
    MacNut (#38)
    dcv (#41)
    rdowns (#47)
    Lau (#48)
    IJ Reilly (#49)

    Lau dropped out of the Top 50 between a year ago and six months ago, but has returned to the list based on posts in the last six months.
    Six members are no longer in the Top 50 (previous ranks are shown in parens), having slipped off from near the bottom of the list:
    scem0 (#41)
    MrMacman (#42)
    kretzy (#43)
    Counterfit (#44)
    Lacero (#45)
    clayj (#50)

    Changes in rank

    Highest rise in rank: bartelby, up 23 slots!
    Next highest:
    Jaffa Cake (up 11)
    iBlue (up 10)
    dynamicv (up 10)

    In the last 12 months, devilot has climbed 18 slots, PlaceofDis 11 slots.

    Highest loss in rank: MacBandit, down 13 slots
    Next highest:
    Chundles (down 11)
    Chip NoVaMac (down 10)
    vniow (down 10)

    In the last 12 months, MacBandit dropped 21 slots, to last place on the Top 50. Meanwhile, Chip NoVaMac dropped 19 slots, jelloshotsrule 13 slots, and inactive jefhatfield 12 slots.

    It was a stable period, with seven members (3 more than last time) retaining their position in the Top 50 list:
    mad jew (#1)
    Mr. Anderson (#2)
    jsw (#3)
    wdlove (#6)
    ~Shard~ (#7)
    edesignuk (#9)
    Abstract (#15)

    wdlove is inactive, so he held his position without posting!

    Only edesignuk kept the same position since both 12 months ago and 6 months ago, while bousozoku (#10) and arn (#34) returned to the positions they held 12 months ago.
    kretzy missed making the Top 50 by 18 posts (0.1 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 10.2 days).
    Next was psychofreak, who missed by 95 posts (0.5 posts per day).​


    Changes in the Top 10

    mkrishnan moved past Doctor Q for the #4 slot. Both have been making a couple of posts per day more than their long-term averages, but mkrishnan's averages are higher (between 13 and 16 posts/day), with Doctor Q at 10 to 11 posts/day.

    Blue Velvet jumped into the Top 10, from #14 to #8. bousozoku is no longer active, but stayed in the Top 10 at #10. This is the 6th time that bousozoku has been #10 or #11 in the last 10 recording periods.

    iGary, formerly #10, dropped to #13.

    For the first time ever, more than half the Top 50 are members with over 10,000 posts, just as I predicted six months ago.

    Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 578,418 posts. I predicted it would be 590,016.


    Posts in the last 6 months

    Note: This section excludes members who were not in my stats 6 months ago, since I didn't track their post histories then.

    Highest number of posts in 6 months: Eidorian, 5,512 posts, 30.0 posts per day

    Next-highest:
    mad jew (4,187 posts)
    bartelby (3,903 posts)
    Blue Velvet (3,099 posts)

    Those were the only members with over 3,000 posts in 6 months.

    Seven members had over 2,000 posts in 6 months:
    MacNut (2,980)
    mkrishnan (2,941)
    iBlue (2,604)
    rdowns (2,469)
    devilot (2,152)
    Doctor Q (2,081)
    WildCowboy (2,027)

    Another 14 members had post counts between 1000 and 2000.
    Members with the highest post counts in six months who did not make the Top 50:
    psychofreak (3,387 posts, 18.4 posts per day)
    twoodcc (2,678 posts, 14.6 posts per day)
    mpw (1,180 posts, 6.4 posts per day)
    EricNau (941 posts, 5.1 posts per day)
    skunk (878 posts, 4.8 posts per day)
    sushi (869 posts, 4.7 posts per day)
    LimeiBook86 (854 posts, 4.6 posts per day)
    Lowest post counts:
    These inactive members stayed in the Top 50: vniow, jefhatfield, wdlove, eyelikeart.

    MacBandit visits the forums but made only 8 posts in the last 6 months, while holding onto the bottom slot in the Top 50.

    Next-lowest:
    jelloshotsrule (36 posts)
    Chip NoVaMac (71 posts)
    Rower_CPU (98 posts)


    Excluded members and posts

    MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking, but none would have made the Top 50.

    Members can lose posts due to deletion or Wastelanding of threads. In the last 6 months, this reduced the post count of two Top 50 members:
    wdlove lost 1 post
    eyelikeart lost 4 posts
     
  4. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #4
    6-Month Projections

    Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January 2008

    Code:
    Proj  Projection       Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  July 4, 2008     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------   ------  ----  -----
      1   mad jew          35,491    1      0
      2   Mr. Anderson     23,477    2      0
      3   mkrishnan        22,582    4     +1
      4   Doctor Q         21,171    5     +1
      5   jsw              21,116    3     -2
      6   Blue Velvet      18,007    8     +2
      7   ~Shard~          17,695    7      0
      8   Eidorian         17,172   17     +9
      9   wdlove           16,647    6     -3
     10   edesignuk        15,942    9     -1
     11   devilot          15,386   12     +1
     12   PlaceofDis       14,676   11     -1
     13   bartelby         14,369   23    +10
     14   bousozoku        14,161   10     -4
     15   Abstract         13,893   15      0
     16   yellow           13,817   14     -2
     17   WildCowboy       13,701   18     +1
     18   iGary            13,347   13     -5
     19   iBlue            12,265   30    +11
     20   eyelikeart       12,112   16     -4
     21   CanadaRAM        11,889   25     +4
     22   Sun Baked        11,719   20     -2
     23   raggedjimmi      11,584   21     -2
     24   Rower_CPU        11,450   19     -5
     25   Mitthrawnuruodo  11,395   22     -3
    Code:
    Proj  Projection       Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  July 4, 2008     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------   ------  ----  -----
     26   MacNut           11,166   38    +12
     27   Nermal           11,126   24     -3
     28   emw              10,736   27     -1
     29   psychofreak      10,693  ---    ---
     30   dmw007           10,589   26     -4
     31   Jaffa Cake       10,322   36     +5
     32   vniow            10,248   28     -4
     33   rdowns           10,151   47    +14
     34   Applespider      10,102   31     -3
     35   jelloshotsrule    9,780   29     -6
     36   dcv               9,736   41     +5
     37   dynamicv          9,717   39     +2
     38   twoodcc           9,628  ---    ---
     39   arn               9,431   34     -5
     40   robbieduncan      9,276   44     +4
     41   IJ Reilly         8,999   49     +8
     42   iMeowbot          8,958   33     -9
     43   Lau               8,923   48     +5
     44   katie ta achoo    8,901   35     -9
     45   jefhatfield       8,825   32    -13
     46   MacRumorUser      8,807   40     -6
     47   iGAV              8,674   37    -10
     48   nagromme          8,428   42     -6
     49   Mord              8,310   46     -3
     50   Chundles          8,159   43     -7
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection July 4, 2008 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2008 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
     
  5. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #5
    Comments on the 6-Month Projections

    I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.

    The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

    They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the alleged "real world."


    Changed members

    Two members (half as many as last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
    psychofreak (#29)
    twoodcc (#38)

    Neither made the Top 25.

    Two members are projected to fall off the Top 50 list (current rank):
    Chip NoVaMac (#45)
    MacBandit (#50)

    Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
    kretzy -- missed joining the list by 309 posts (1.7 posts/day)
    Chip NoVaMac -- missed staying on the list by 329 posts (1.8 posts/day)


    Random trivia

    It is projected to take 8,159 posts to make the Top 50. Currently, it takes 7,418 posts.

    Members will have one more day than usual to add to their post count, since the next 6 months includes a Leap Day.

    For the second time in a row, jelloshotsrule is at the border between 4-digit and five-digit posts counts.

    AlphaTech, one of the high posters early in the history of MacRumors, would just barely stay in the Top 100. I estimate #98.

    The number of members with over 10,000 posts grows from 28 (I predicted 27) to 34. mad jew is still the only member projected to have over 30,000 posts, with nobody else even close to that mark.

    Last time, I predicted that three members would have 20,000 (but under 30,000) posts: Mr. Anderson, jsw, and mkrishnan. As it turned out, only Mr. Anderson hit that mark; jsw was only 30 posts shy.

    This time, I predict we'll have four members with 20,000 to 30,000 posts: Mr. Anderson, mkrishnan, Doctor Q, and jsw.


    Changes in rank

    Although the numbers tell us that jsw will drop from #3 to #5, below mkrishnan and Doctor Q, I think it's a spurious result because jsw was temporarily away from the forums. If the real world doesn't take him away again, he's likely to retain his position.

    At current post rates, Blue Velvet will pass ~Shard~ and Eidorian will leap into the Top 10, bumping bousozoku out of the Top 10.

    Largest margin of victory: mad jew (#1) increases his lead over Mr. Anderson (#2), and now leads by five-digits -- 12,014 posts!
    Next largest: jsw over Blue Velvet by 3,109 posts.

    mkrishnan over Doctor Q by 1,411 posts.

    iGary over iBlue by 1,082 posts.
    The race among four Top 50 members will be too close to call, with IJ Reilly a mere 44 posts ahead of iMeowbot, who will be a mere 35 posts ahead of Lau, who will be a mere 22 posts ahead of katie ta achoo!

    Highest projected rise in rank: rdowns (up 14 slots)
    Next highest:
    MacNut (up 12 slots)
    iBlue (up 11 slots)
    bartelby (up 10 slots)
    Highest projected loss in rank (while still on the Top 50): jefhatfield (down 13 slots)
    Next highest: iGAV (down 10 slots)
    Projected to hold their current rank:
    mad jew (#1)
    Mr. Anderson (#2)
    ~Shard~ (#7)
    Abstract (#15)​


    Excluded and inactive members

    No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.

    Six inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50:
    wdlove (#9)
    bousozoku (#14)
    eyelikeart (#20)
    vniow (#32)
    jefhatfield (#45)


    Total posts

    By this projection, by July 4, 2008 there will have been 644,539 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members, up 54,523 from 6 months ago.

    The average Top 50 member will have 12,891 posts total, having made 1,340 posts in the 6 months between now and then (7.3 posts/day).

    At that point, everything that anyone could possibly say will have been said!
     
  6. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #6
    "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2008

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
    Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
      1   mad jew           26.41     1      0
      2   Eidorian          19.34    17    +15
      3   mkrishnan         16.65     4     +1
      4   Blue Velvet       14.17     8     +4
      5   psychofreak       13.97   ---    ---
      6   devilot           13.70    12     +6
      7   bartelby          13.57    23    +16
      8   jsw               13.30     3     -5
      9   WildCowboy        12.56    18     +9
     10   iBlue             12.23    30    +20
     11   Doctor Q          11.75     5     -6
     12   MacNut            11.63    38    +26
     13   mattscott306      11.41   ---    ---
     14   dynamicv          11.21    39    +25
     15   PlaceofDis        10.30    11     -4
     16   twoodcc            9.71   ---    ---
     17   Jaffa Cake         9.31    36    +19
     18   rdowns             9.28    47    +29
     19   clevin             9.06   ---    ---
     20   dcv                8.89    41    +21
     21   ~Shard~            8.64     7    -14
     22   raggedjimmi        8.57    21     -1
     23   CanadaRAM          8.49    25     +2
     24   Sesshi             8.24   ---    ---
     25   Abstract           8.10    15    -10
    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
    Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
     26   MacRumorUser       7.51    40    +14
     27   yellow             7.39    14    -13
     28   IJ Reilly          7.13    49    +21
     29   robbieduncan       6.99    44    +15
     30   dmw007             6.84    26     -4
     31   Mitthrawnuruodo    6.55    22     -9
     32   Eraserhead         6.34   ---    ---
     33   xUKHCx             6.30   ---    ---
     34   EricNau            6.24   ---    ---
     35   Lau                6.15    48    +13
     36   emw                6.07    27     -9
     37   edesignuk          5.78     9    -28
     38   katie ta achoo     5.73    35     -3
     39   mpw                5.52   ---    ---
     40   Peace              5.32   ---    ---
     41   Applespider        5.15    31    -10
     42   Chundles           5.13    43     +1
     43   kretzy             5.12   ---    ---
     44   Sun Baked          4.84    20    -24
     45   iGary              4.80    13    -32
     46   balamw             4.79   ---    ---
     47   Mord               4.72    46     -1
     48   zap2               4.65   ---    ---
     49   skunk              4.49   ---    ---
     50   LimeiBook86        4.45   ---    ---
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
    3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006. To avoid what appeared to be ties in past End of Time charts, I have added another decimal digit of precision.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2008, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
     
  7. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #7
    Comments on the End of Time Projections

    At the Top

    mad jew tops the End of Time projections, as he did last time. His weighted post rate has dropped in the last two six month periods, from from 32.3 to 30.1 to 26.4 posts/day, but it's still "good enough" for the top spot.

    In second place is Eidorian. For those who say "Eidorian who?" I'll give you a few facts. Eidorian joined in March 2005 and by January 2007 had 4,179 posts and a rate of 6.4 posts/day, which while modest was high enough to warrant #35 on the End of Time projection. With a rate increase to 11.0 posts/day (6 month average) and a total of 6,178 posts by July 2007, Eidorian moved to #22 on the End of Time list. All it took was a subsequent jump to a 6-month rate of 30.0 posts/day and a weighted rate of 19.2 posts/day (with a total of 11,690 posts) and the rest was (projected future) history!

    All other members of the End of Time Top 15 have weighted rates of over 10 posts/day, ranging from mkrishnan's 16.7, Blue Velvet's 14.2, and psychofreak's 14.0 to PlaceofDis's 10.3.

    Leaders and followers

    Measuring leads by either post rates or percentages, we find the biggest differences among the End of Time Top 50 posters:

    The biggest leads by post rate are among our #1, #2, and #3 posters.
    Biggest: 7.06 posts/day lead: #1 mad jew over #2 Eidorian

    Next biggest:
    2.69 posts/day lead: #2 Eidorian over #3 mkrishnan
    2.48 posts/day lead: #3 mkrishnan over #4 Blue Velvet
    All others are leads of less than one post per day.
    The biggest leads by percentage are also at the top:
    36.5%% lead: #1 mad jew over #2 Eidorian
    17.5% lead: #3 mkrishnan over #4 Blue Velvet
    16.2%% lead: #2 Eidorian over #3 mkrishnan
    Closest race by post rate: iGary over balamw by 0.005 posts/day. That's a difference of 1 post every 206 days!
    Next closest:
    Chundles over kretzy by 0.012 posts/day (1 post every 80 days)
    Applespider over Chundles by 0.016 posts/day (1 post every 62 days)

    Closest race by percentage: iGary over balamw by 0.101%
    Next closest:
    Jaffa Cake over rdowns by 0.240%
    Chundles over kretzy by 0.243%


    Changed members

    As usual, the End of Time Top 50 is very different from today's Top 50, because shorter-term members with high post rates show up among the top ranks.

    Fifteen members are projected to join the Top 50 list sometime in the future:
    psychofreak (#5, projected to be #18 six months ago)
    mattscott306 (#13)
    twoodcc (#16)
    clevin (#19)
    Sesshi (#24)
    Eraserhead (#32)
    xUKHCx (#33)
    EricNau (#34)
    mpw (#39)
    Peace (#40)
    kretzy (#43)
    balamw (#46)
    zap2 (#48)
    skunk (#49)
    LimeiBook86 (#50)
    Fifteen members are projected to fall off the current Top 50 list (in descending order by weighted post rate):
    bousozoku
    Nermal
    iMeowbot
    arn
    vniow
    nagromme
    iGAV
    Mr. Anderson (currently #2)
    Chip NoVaMac
    jelloshotsrule
    wdlove
    Rower_CPU
    jefhatfield
    MacBandit
    eyelikeart
    Just missed the Top 50: Nermal, by 0.045 posts/day, or one post every 22.2 days.
    It takes a weighted rate of 4.45 posts/day (LimeiBook86's rate) to make the End of Time Top 50. Nermal's rate is 4.40 posts/day.


    Changes in rank

    Highest projected rise in rank: rdowns, up 29 slots, from #47 to #18
    Next highest (all those up 20 or more slots):
    MacNut, up 26 slots from #38 to #12
    dynamicv, up 25 slots from #39 to #14
    dcv, up 21 slots from #41 to #20
    IJ Reilly, up 21 slots from #49 to #28
    iBlue, up 20 slots from #30 to #10 (she likes multiple of 10!)

    Highest projected loss in rank: iGary, dropping 32 slots, from #13 to #45
    Next highest:
    edesignuk, down 28 slots from #9 to #37
    Sun Baked, down 24 slots from #20 to #44
    Only a single member is projected to retain their current rank: mad jew (#1)


    Changes in the Top 10 End of Time

    This is a comparison of the prediction (not the reality) from 6 months ago with the prediction now.

    Joining the Top 10 End of Time:
    Eidorian (up from #23 to #2)
    psychofreak (up from #18 to #5)
    bartelby (up from #36 to #7)
    iBlue (up from #14 to #10)
    Their ascent bumped these members out of the Top 10 End of Time:
    dynamicv (down from #6 to #14)
    PlaceofDis (down from #7 to #15)
    dmw007 (down from #8 to #30)
    Doctor Q (down from #9 to #11)

    bartelby's large jump is due to his increased post rate. From a year ago to six months ago, he had an overall rate of 5.9 posts per day. In the last six months, his rate has jumped to 8.1 posts/day overall and 21.2 posts/day for the six-month period, giving him a weighted rate of 13.6.

    The predictions for Eidorian and bartelby are based on less data than for the others, so they have less inherent accuracy.

    Doctor Q's drop might be a result of posts like this one, where he spends hours composing a single post! ;)

    Trivia

    mattscott306 is not in the current Top 100, but is projeced to be #13 at the End of Time.

    The number of members in the Top 50 with a vowel as the first alphabetic of their username has grown from 8 to 10. They are Abstract, Applespider, edesignuk, Eidorian, emw, Eraserhead, EricNau, iBlue, iGary, and IJ Reilly.

    emw has slipped position among the five MATLOC members (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club).
    Six months ago: jsw, emw, dcv, Lau, mpw

    Now: jsw, dcv, Lau, emw, mpw
    Percentage of women:
    16% overall (same as last time)
    30% among the Top 10 (up from 20% last time) as iBlue joins Blue Velvet and devilot.

    Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity. This is exactly the same figure as 6 months ago, showing that nothing can stop the Top 50 MacRumors posters!


    Now I hope I don't get arrested for spamming this thread! :eek:
     
  8. Fearless Leader macrumors 68020

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2006
    Location:
    Hoosiertown
  9. robbieduncan Moderator emeritus

    robbieduncan

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Location:
    London
    #9
    What a lot to get through! I'm pleased/scared to see that I am still marching up the ranks with a nice #29 end-of-time position to look forward to...

    Edit to add: OK, that's scary: you predicted my movement up 4 positions perfectly 6 months ago. Do you have next weeks lottery numbers too?
     
  10. devilot Moderator emeritus

    devilot

    Joined:
    May 1, 2005
    #10
    Ah, the Thread of Shame. Thanks again, Q, for your number crunching. It's interesting to see that though it feels like there aren't many women on the forum, we're not afraid to be seen/heard. ;)

    :edit: Robbie, your post made me check Q's projection for me. Alas, I disappointed him-- I didn't hit ninth poster, "just" 12th. :eek:
     
  11. iGav macrumors G3

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2002
    #11
    I'm truly humbled to belong in such company. :)
     
  12. iJon macrumors 604

    iJon

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    #12
    It really saddens me that I've been on this site longer than most and I can't get the enjoyment of seeing myself on the top 50 anymore. I guess I need to go click on older years to make myself feel better :D.

    jon
     
  13. fivetoadsloth macrumors 65816

    fivetoadsloth

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2006
    #13
    Great job,

    However, the fact that iGary is no longer posting was not included in the charts.
     
  14. puckhead193 macrumors G3

    puckhead193

    Joined:
    May 25, 2004
    Location:
    NY
    #14
    i like how wdlove and igary are still on the lists and aren't active
     
  15. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #15
    Doctor Q: I am curious about your projection that I will move from #49 to #41 in six months. I believe I was actually higher on the list a few months ago; in fact, I thought I might even fall out of the top 50 before the end of the year. We seem to have a lot of new posting monkeys lurking just below the top 50 line -- won't they be displacing a lot of us old plodders?
     
  16. iPhil macrumors 68040

    iPhil

    #16


    The reason on why wdlove,igary are still on the top 50 is : There post count was so high before they took their sabbatical from MR.. :eek:
     
  17. zap2 macrumors 604

    zap2

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2005
    Location:
    Washington D.C
    #17
    I'm going down, almost off the "End of Time" List....last time I was more to the middle.


    Ugg..not enough time in the day :(

    (And I spend too much time in the gaming forum, which doesn't count to my posts)
     
  18. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Location:
    CT
  19. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2005
    Location:
    UK
    #19
    And I'm 32 :eek:.
     
  20. Eidorian macrumors Penryn

    Eidorian

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2005
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    #20
    Quake at my Forum Spy skill.

    I've been waiting for this for ages.
     
  21. robbieduncan Moderator emeritus

    robbieduncan

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Location:
    London
    #21
    But you are younger than me. By the end-of-time that may well become important...
     
  22. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #22
    Quotes from last time

    These are quotes from the Top 50 Posters Extrapolated discussion from six months ago. It's fun to see how things turned out.
     
  23. psychofreak Retired

    psychofreak

    Joined:
    May 16, 2006
    Location:
    London
    #23
    Oh well. I blame that month-long Summer trip. I'll get it next time :)
     
  24. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Location:
    CT
    #24
    Q, a few ?'s why is the master list not showing retired members yet the top 50 has everything in tact. Should those members be reinstated in the master list.
     
  25. Mitthrawnuruodo Moderator emeritus

    Mitthrawnuruodo

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2004
    Location:
    Bergen, Norway
    #25
    He-he... another extrapolation where I managed to stay completely unnoticed... the plan works... :D
     

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