A super awesome write up as always! Happy to see I held on to being number 33
Wow.
I haven't seen you around these parts or on these threads for quite some time; welcome back, and very nice to see you even if it is for a fleeting visit.
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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2017
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Wow.
I haven't seen you around these parts or on these threads for quite some time; welcome back, and very nice to see you even if it is for a fleeting visit.
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January 2017
Columns:
Observations
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January 2017
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
1 C DM 31.68 5 +4 1 0
2 maflynn 22.66 1 -1 2 0
3 Scepticalscribe 20.06 21 +18 3 0
4 Apple fanboy 11.74 --- --- 6 +2
5 Newtons Apple 11.59 --- --- 4 -1
6 I7guy 10.22 --- --- 10 +4
7 eyoungren 9.13 --- --- 5 -2
8 Weaselboy 8.87 16 +8 7 -1
9 Shirasaki 8.77 --- --- --- ---
10 The Game 161 8.32 --- --- 33 +23
11 MRU 8.25 13 +2 9 -2
12 Applejuiced 7.39 3 -9 25 +13
13 lordofthereef 7.28 --- --- 19 +6
14 MH01 7.22 --- --- --- ---
15 tiggger 7.05 --- --- 13 -2
16 SandboxGeneral 7.05 14 -2 11 -5
17 JayLenochiniMac 6.85 --- --- 12 -5
18 Rogifan 6.21 43 +25 8 -10
19 Michael Goff 6.04 --- --- 14 -5
20 Tech198 6.03 --- --- 16 -4
21 Night Spring 5.68 --- --- 15 -6
22 jamezr 5.60 --- --- 29 +7
23 bunnspecial 5.25 --- --- --- ---
24 Huntn 5.25 --- --- 21 -3
25 Julien 5.20 --- --- --- ---
26 mattopotamus 5.11 --- --- 23 -3
27 h9826790 5.02 --- --- --- ---
28 Samuelsan2001 4.90 --- --- --- ---
29 spinedoc77 4.85 --- --- 47 +18
30 Fishrrman 4.73 --- --- 32 +2
31 T5BRICK 4.64 --- --- 41 +10
32 KPOM 4.35 --- --- 26 -6
33 apolloa 4.23 --- --- 37 +4
34 kdarling 4.23 --- --- 35 +1
35 OllyW 4.16 --- --- 30 -5
36 Armen 4.16 --- --- 22 -14
37 cube 4.04 --- --- --- ---
38 mobilehaathi 3.71 --- --- --- ---
39 Gav2k 3.62 --- --- 27 -12
40 Traverse 3.57 --- --- 28 -12
41 AustinIllini 3.44 --- --- 42 +1
42 leman 3.31 --- --- --- ---
43 Chupa Chupa 3.18 --- --- 43 0
44 keysofanxiety 3.12 --- --- --- ---
45 cynics 3.11 --- --- 39 -6
46 samcraig 3.08 42 -4 31 -15
47 Altemose 2.93 --- --- 34 -13
48 macduke 2.90 --- --- --- ---
49 Abazigal 2.86 --- --- --- ---
50 NT1440 2.83 --- --- --- ---- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
- Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership.
- Cur Rank = current rank as of January 2017 (Chart 1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
- Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2016, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
- Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
Observations
- Only 9 of 50 members in the Top 50 End of Time are among the current Top 50 posters, showing the big difference between post count and post rate. Nine is also the number of Top 50 members with digits in their user names, a fact that no doubt has cosmic significance.
- C DM, maflynn, and Scepticalscribe retain their End of Time leadership in positions 1, 2, and 3, followed by the Apple gang: Apple fanboy and Newtons Apple.
- I7guy is the only other forum member with a post rate above 10 posts/day.
- A higher-than-average number of members are new to the Top 50 End of Time. In the Top 25 was have
Shirasaki, MH01, bunnspecial, and Julien. (Julien was in the Top 50 End of Time a year ago, but dropped off 6 months ago.) Rounding out the Top 50, we welcome h9826790, Samuelsan2001, cube, mobilehaathi, leman, keysofanxiety, macduke, Abazigal, and NT1440.
- Former Top 25 members who have dropped out of the Top 50 End of Time: sunking101, The Doctor11, and Meister. Also dropped out: HenryDJP, Technarchy, dannyyankou, gotluck, batting1000, firedept, AppleScruff1, and ucfgrad93.
- Largest increase from End of Time 6 months ago: The Game 161, up 23 slots to #10, followed by spinedoc77, up 18 slots to #29.
- Largest decrease: samcraig (down 15 slots), then Armen (down 14 slots) and Altemose (down 13 slots).
- Other than the Top 3, only Chupa Chupa retained an End of Time position from 6 months ago, holding onto slot #43.
- Last time it took 2.87 posts/day to make the Top 50 End of Time. This time two members, Abazigal and NT1440, snuck into the list with rates of 2.86 posts/day and 2.83 posts/day, respectively.
- Altemose managed to stay on the list while making only 346 posts in the last 6 months and only 594 posts in the last year.
- The longest forum membership among the End of Time Top 50 is once again Chupa Chupa, at 14.5 years.
- New End of Time Top 50 member Shirasaki has the shortest forum membership, less than 20 months.
- If we expanded the list to the Top 100 End of Time, arn would no longer be on the list. I'd be near the bottom at #92.
Well, I didn't expect to see myself appear in any of these tables. Hmm. Does this mean I'm hiding somewhere in the buffer zone you monitor but don't report for some of these other tables?
Terrific work, @Doctor Q, and much appreciated as always.
And delighted to see @mobilehaathi make an appearance on this list; bravo.
And delighted to see @mobilehaathi make an appearance on this list; bravo.
Correct. I've collected 136,955 data points to date, for over 400 forum members, so I can analyze the data various ways and sift for the top poster statistics. I've been following you around, peering in your windows and peeking in your closets, since July 2015. Your post rate was originally about 2.3 posts per day, then 2.5, and lately 5.0. Also, you missed a spot brushing your teeth last Wednesday.
Followup to my previous off-topic comment
The last Q name to make the list was Quinn, as a name for a baby girl, at #98 out of 100 in 2012.
Much to my disappointment, the Top 100 baby names last year had not even a single letter Q.
The last Q name to make the list was Quinn, as a name for a baby girl, at #98 out of 100 in 2012.
Followup to my previous off-topic comment
Much to my disappointment, the Top 100 baby names last year had not even a single letter Q.
The last Q name to make the list was Quinn, as a name for a baby girl, at #98 out of 100 in 2012.
Then, you should have been born in Ancient Rome; there, you could indeed have found considerable numbers of names that commenced with the letter "Q", - such as "Quintus" - reflecting the relatively large families - or number of children - some Romans actually had.
Wow I made the Champions League spot! Thanks for this. Makes for a fascinating read. Is it possible to know my current rank as i'm on your snooper list?
For those that don't know Doctor Q works for the CIA and FBI, but he said if I told anyone he'd have to kill me!
Followup to my previous off-topic comment
Much to my disappointment, the Top 100 baby names last year had not even a single letter Q.
The last Q name to make the list was Quinn, as a name for a baby girl, at #98 out of 100 in 2012.
Still of topic, but you need a different source. I have more students whose names begin with Q than you could pronounce. There's Quindarius and Quintarius, Quinlyn, Quanda, and then there are the fancy ones where the mama tacked on a la at the beginning.
That's very qool news. Give them all an "A", to counteract the measurable bias that works against them.
My given name is Quidditative Querist Quantophrenia, which means an eccentric inquirer who is obsessed with statistics. But my teachers didn't hold it against me.
If only I could quomodocunquize this hobby! (Feel free to look it up.)
And speaking of Q words, everyone in my lists above is quinquagesimal, meaning that they belong to a set of 50!
Memories light the corners of my mind
Misty water-colored memories of the way we were
Nice work as always @Doctor Q.
If my understanding is correct then doesn't that mean you don't post as much in the last few months as you once did?
That's because you've been posting here for years, long enough to have accumulated over 16,000 posts, but others who joined later and post more frequently will eventually pass your post count. If you increased your post rate by one additional post every 2 days, then you'd be on the End of Time Top 50 as well.
The End of Time stats assume that we will all live forever, which may not actually be true. Neither is the assumption that everyone will post in the future as they have in the past.
Yes, there is truth in that profound observation......
Also true.
It would be interesting to see the dips, troughs, and peaks of some of those who have posted a lot: I suspect that in many instances it has not been all that regular.
Presumably, this is because demands in Real Life, both personal and professional, may drive an individual to re-order their priorities, or circumstances may compel it.
In any case, I have had periods when I hardly posted here for months on end - particularly when I was sent to Georgia, where I spent over two years.
The way I've plotted the posting history of specific members in the past, such as this one for GGJstudios, won't have dips or peaks, since it shows accumulating post count, not the posting rate. Instead of dips and peaks you look for a flatter or steeper slope of the curve.
We can't all live forever.
Ha! and again, holy smokes! I am doing good to get a few posts in a day! Woozers! Nice work as usual @Doctor Q !!!!
I'm still here! Just been busy with life and all. I do miss being on here. Everyone is rather nice and friendly.
Sheesh, you must have been gone for quite a while...