Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2020

chown33

Moderator
Original poster
Staff member
Aug 9, 2009
8,592
4,679
inter-prandial
...
On the negative side, 30 weeks seems a bit too soon. Using the algebraic solution, you'd compute

numberDays = ( user2posts - user1posts ) / ( user1rate - user2rate )

WIth the data from Table 1 you'd get

( 37330 - 34122 ) / ( 17.86 - 8.29 ) = 335.21 days

which is 335.21 / 7 = 47.89 weeks. Of course the data is 3 days old, so it's obsolete anyway!

The complaint I have with that solution is that it doesn't correctly reflect the Anomalous jump. That is, it presumes there's a linear relationship for you over the entire most recent period, where the graph of weekly data clearly shows there isn't.

In other words, it takes the two end-points located 6 months apart and draws a straight line between them. Then it takes that straight line and projects it into the future. The weekly data contradicts this.

Here's the graph with some dashed lines added to it.
Extrapolate-small.png


The black dashed line is the simplistic linear projection, using only the 2 end-point counts taken 6 months apart. If we didn't have the weekly data, that would be the best we could manage, unless we went farther back using semi-annual data.

The magenta dashed line projected for AFB is a fair approximation to his weekly post-count data, so I have no qualms about using it as a projection. It's not perfect, but it's still fairly good.

The green dashed line is a projection using your actual post-rate after the Anomaly. Because it's parallel to your line before the Anomaly, it's also a decent approximation to your post rate before the discontinuity.

(The lines begin at 2019-06-30 because the graph is made with only weekly data, not semi-annual data. The wider gap between that date and 2019-07-09 is because I bungled a data-collection on July 7, and didn't realize it for a couple of days.)

The problem with the dashed black line is it doesn't reflect the data. There's a fairly linear section of the weekly data (red) before mid-November, and another fairly linear section after the Anomaly. There's a discontinuity between those segments, but the segments themselves are fairly linear. They indicate your actual post rate, without the error that was introduced by the Anomaly.

Using the graphical methods, I essentially extrapolated the green dashed line until it intersected the magenta dashed line. Extrapolating the black dashed line would be incorrect, given the available data.

If we didn't have the weekly data at all, we might not have recognized so quickly that the new Political News forum was being counted, and instead we'd be marveling at how so many users had made such prodigious leaps in their post rate in such a short time.



And yes, I did have fun doing the graphical solution. It took far less time to figure it out and actually do it, than it took to write it up and photograph. It's kind of amazing what one can still accomplish with such simple tools.
 
  • Like
Reactions: I7guy and jkcerda

Clix Pix

macrumors demi-goddess
I am one who has always disliked math and who has tried to avoid it as much as possible.....statistics and graphs and such usually make my eyes cross and go gazing off into a fuzzy distance..... Somehow, this entire thread has been utterly fun reading and certainly instructional to boot! Bottom line here is -- keep up the good work, Chown! You are carrying on Doctor Q's fine tradition quite admirably and then some! :)
 

robogobo

Suspended
Jun 6, 2005
439
57
Sitting down facing front.
I realize these stats are for stat folks, and maybe even help to drive advertising revenue. But I would make a quantity vs quality argument here, and even go so far as to say that stats like these encourage a very real problem that plagues user forums in general: noise. For the average user, who signs up, asks questions and participates in discussion, the post-count obsessed members who seem to have nothing better to do amounts to a huge amount of forum noise, helps no-one, and definitely should not be encouraged. They're the guy at the party who won't stop talking, loves the sound of their own voice and believes that more words equates to expertise. It doesn't. You'll find most of these people don't even read the post they're answering. Going only off the thread title, they launch into non-sequitur comments that satisfy nothing more than their own need to be noticed. Somehow the better business practice of listening over speaking hasn't seeped into the world of user-to-user forums.

I smell sour grapes.

If it mattered that much, you'd post more pointless drivel. True Story.
Amen. It doesn't matter. So stop making such a big deal out of the numbers. A good forum cares more about quality of posts, not quantity. I'm not saying that all of these top-50 folks are necessarily unhelpful, but calling out competitive stats like this sends the wrong message. Instead, please everybody, try to lower the noise.
 

eyoungren

macrumors Core
Aug 31, 2011
21,533
13,482
ten-zero-eleven-zero-zero by zero-two
I realize these stats are for stat folks, and maybe even help to drive advertising revenue. But I would make a quantity vs quality argument here, and even go so far as to say that stats like these encourage a very real problem that plagues user forums in general: noise. For the average user, who signs up, asks questions and participates in discussion, the post-count obsessed members who seem to have nothing better to do amounts to a huge amount of forum noise, helps no-one, and definitely should not be encouraged. They're the guy at the party who won't stop talking, loves the sound of their own voice and believes that more words equates to expertise. It doesn't. You'll find most of these people don't even read the post they're answering. Going only off the thread title, they launch into non-sequitur comments that satisfy nothing more than their own need to be noticed. Somehow the better business practice of listening over speaking hasn't seeped into the world of user-to-user forums.
While I agree in general, this forum in particular has rules to govern this. I have both been moderated by those rules as well as been in threads where the off-topic or useless posts were removed. When you have a post removed, your post count also goes down. So there is no incentive to post drivel to drive your count up because removing your posts also removes your post count.

It doesn't matter how long you've been here or how long the mods have been here (in this forum), you will be moderated if you violate the rules.

As to the rest, as you've already seen, the two members you commented on were bantering.
 

AustinIllini

macrumors demi-goddess
Oct 20, 2011
11,584
8,292
Austin, TX
And here we are, and those of us tuning in a little late are in stitches at this point, not having seen someone's vacation bus coming, speaking of post counts getting adjusted.
This is my favorite thread on the forums. Trying to figure out how to add it to Apple News+
 
  • Haha
Reactions: LizKat

Scepticalscribe

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Jul 29, 2008
48,974
32,599
The Far Horizon
And here we are, and those of us tuning in a little late are in stitches at this point, not having seen someone's vacation bus coming, speaking of post counts getting adjusted.
Actually, earlier today, I did spot that particular vacation bus trundling down the street, but, decided at the time not to take any action, as I assumed it would meet a traffic light, or other form of traffic control in due course, which is, of course, what seems to have transpired.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: LizKat

I7guy

macrumors Core
Nov 30, 2013
21,253
9,045
Gotta be in it to win it
I realize these stats are for stat folks, and maybe even help to drive advertising revenue. But I would make a quantity vs quality argument here, and even go so far as to say that stats like these encourage a very real problem that plagues user forums in general: noise. For the average user, who signs up, asks questions and participates in discussion, the post-count obsessed members who seem to have nothing better to do amounts to a huge amount of forum noise, helps no-one, and definitely should not be encouraged. They're the guy at the party who won't stop talking, loves the sound of their own voice and believes that more words equates to expertise. It doesn't. You'll find most of these people don't even read the post they're answering. Going only off the thread title, they launch into non-sequitur comments that satisfy nothing more than their own need to be noticed. Somehow the better business practice of listening over speaking hasn't seeped into the world of user-to-user forums.....
Can’t say I agree with any of this. In fact, to me the opposite is true. People who have “high” post counts have them because they contribute to the discussion. It’s gets tiring posting noise, why even bother?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scepticalscribe

GGJstudios

macrumors Westmere
May 16, 2008
44,420
759
I realize these stats are for stat folks, and maybe even help to drive advertising revenue. But I would make a quantity vs quality argument here, and even go so far as to say that stats like these encourage a very real problem that plagues user forums in general: noise. For the average user, who signs up, asks questions and participates in discussion, the post-count obsessed members who seem to have nothing better to do amounts to a huge amount of forum noise, helps no-one, and definitely should not be encouraged.
Like I7guy, I disagree. Most of the prolific posters answer countless questions and help solve problems for Apple users. The more people you help, the higher the post count goes. Yes, there are exceptions, but the majority who have high post counts are not posting "noise", but rather contributing in a helpful way to forum members.
 

AustinIllini

macrumors demi-goddess
Oct 20, 2011
11,584
8,292
Austin, TX
Like I7guy, I disagree. Most of the prolific posters answer countless questions and help solve problems for Apple users. The more people you help, the higher the post count goes. Yes, there are exceptions, but the majority who have high post counts are not posting "noise", but rather contributing in a helpful way to forum members.
I mean, honestly, it's a forum. We're all just here to inform people and have a good time. I spend most of my time providing feedback and the reason I have a giant spike at iPhone launch time is I'm legitimately trying to help people who have questions about the purchase process.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

japanime

macrumors 68000
Feb 27, 2006
1,988
1,954
Japan
I am the Susan Lucci of Macrumors. 😭
I love this comment!

So... I've been on MacRumors for 14 years, but this is my first time seeing this particular topic discussed. How neat! It's interesting, too, that of the Top 50, I only recognize about a dozen or so of the usernames. I guess I don't dive deep enough into the many forum topics here to know all of these folks.
 

robogobo

Suspended
Jun 6, 2005
439
57
Sitting down facing front.
Well, it's no surprise that people making the noise wouldn't consider it noise. If you're here on this thread, talking about post count stats, you might just be one of them. You might not. But you might be.

Anyway, I'm back from vacation and my position hasn't changed. Far too many prolific posters just don't read the OP before "contributing", and that's noise, any way you slice it.
- - Post merged: - -

Like I7guy, I disagree. Most of the prolific posters answer countless questions and help solve problems for Apple users. The more people you help, the higher the post count goes. Yes, there are exceptions, but the majority who have high post counts are not posting "noise", but rather contributing in a helpful way to forum members.
Notice I didn't say there's anything wrong with posting a lot if you're helping people. But for those who aren't so helpful, don't read the OP and yet still post a lot, the highlighting of post count stats as some big achievement or competition is doing nothing but feeding their noisy tendencies. They'll gravitate toward it and try to win. An unhelpful post counts as much as a helpful one. And I wouldn't be here saying all this if I didn't see it happening every time I'm on the forums, involving some members I see on this thread. It's pretty logical. I hate to spoil the party, but it would be nice if they cared more about being helpful than increasing their post count, and if everyone cared more about making the forums a solid resource for old and new alike. I've been here for 15 years, and I'm pointing it out because I care, vacation bus or no.
 
Last edited:

Scepticalscribe

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Jul 29, 2008
48,974
32,599
The Far Horizon
This is my favorite thread on the forums. Trying to figure out how to add it to Apple News+
It is one of my favourites as well, (along with food, music and coffee threads); ever scene I joined the forum over a decade ago, this particular thread fascinated me, and marked the passing of the seasons online in an extraordinarily interesting manner.
 

GGJstudios

macrumors Westmere
May 16, 2008
44,420
759
Notice I didn't say there's anything wrong with posting a lot if you're helping people. But for those who aren't so helpful, don't read the OP and yet still post a lot, the highlighting of post count stats as some big achievement or competition is doing nothing but feeding their noisy tendencies.
I challenge you to find even one of the top 50 posters whose post count is predominately, or even significantly "noise". First, much of the "noise" is in the PRSI forum, which doesn't count toward post counts here. Second, no one accumulates 10,000 posts unless the content is more than just "noise". Frivolous and one-word posts, overposting, and off-topic posts posts that are reported are removed. Yes, there may be some in the forum who set out to try to generate posts for the sole purpose of increasing post count (which violates forum rules), but they soon tire of that effort, or encounter moderation action that alters that activity before they accumulate a large number of posts.
 

AustinIllini

macrumors demi-goddess
Oct 20, 2011
11,584
8,292
Austin, TX
I challenge you to find even one of the top 50 posters whose post count is predominately, or even significantly "noise". First, much of the "noise" is in the PRSI forum, which doesn't count toward post counts here. Second, no one accumulates 10,000 posts unless the content is more than just "noise". Frivolous and one-word posts, overposting, and off-topic posts posts that are reported are removed. Yes, there may be some in the forum who set out to try to generate posts for the sole purpose of increasing post count (which violates forum rules), but they soon tire of that effort, or encounter moderation action that alters that activity before they accumulate a large number of posts.
Right. Post count skyrockets in conversations. A huge percentage of my posts come from the iPhone Mail Threads where I try to help people navigate the ordering and shipping process. Reason why is because I answer a question, get follow-up, answer again. Suddenly you have 2 hours and 200 posts in a thread.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scepticalscribe