Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2018

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by chown33, Jul 4, 2018.

  1. chown33, Jul 4, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2018

    chown33 macrumors 604

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    #1
    This is the first edition in my continuation of Doctor Q's "MacRumors Top 50 Posters" threads. It's the 31st round in the series of semi-annual statistics. I offer my sincere thanks to the good doctor for helping me take over this task.


    The legend of column headings follows each table. I have kept things mostly the same as Q's "final" statistics from the 30th round. I moved things around a bit to be less "gappy", and abbreviated the "one post every ..." data.


    2018-07-14 EDIT NOTES:
    • Added the data for 6-Mo Likes.
    • Corrected some errors in the previous data. There was no effect on rank.
      The main effect was to change some inactive members to active, e.g. @Blue Velvet, @DoFoT9.
    • Revised the Remarks section to match the corrections.

    Table 1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Measurements taken 03 July 2018 by chown33.
    Corrections posted 14 July 2018 by chown33.

    Code:
                               Cur     Cur    Delta   Prev  Delta  6-Mo   Foll-  Avg of one
    Rank  A  Current Top 50    Posts   Rate   Rate    Rank  Rank   Likes  owers  post every
    ----  -  ----------------  ------  -----  ------  ----  -----  -----  -----  ----------
      1   *  maflynn            58447  11.64   -0.60    1     0     3490    23   2h 3.7m
      2   *  GGJstudios         44029   0.48   +0.09    2     0       67    15   2d 2h 30.7m
      3   *  C DM               43686  12.46   -8.72    3     0     1441    21   1h 55.5m
      4      Applejuiced        40650   0.00   -7.51    4     0       25   145   ---
      5   *  GoCubsGo           35736   0.03   -0.03    5     0        5     8   36d 4h 48.0m
      6   *  Doctor Q           34856   2.17   +0.65    6     0      310    42   11h 4.9m
      7      mad jew            32194   0.00   +0.00    7     0        0     4   ---
      8   *  Scepticalscribe    31570  19.09   +3.09   10    +2     1993    35   1h 15.4m
      9      mkrishnan          29641   0.00   +0.00    8    -1        0    11   ---
     10   *  Eidorian           29068   0.05   +0.03    9    -1       42    63   20d 2h 40.0m
     11   *  rdowns             27338   0.08   -0.03   11     0     1165    24   12d 22h 17.1m
     12   *  Weaselboy          26743   5.59   -2.52   12     0      914    73   4h 17.5m
     13      robbieduncan       24480   0.00   +0.00   13     0        0    23   ---
     14   *  Abstract           24323   0.08   -0.03   14     0       11     7   12d 1h 36.0m
     15   *  Apple fanboy       23429  17.80   +3.06   23    +8     2904    13   1h 20.9m
     16   *  SandboxGeneral     23409   0.87   +0.31   15    -1      276    23   1d 3h 29.6m
     17      jsw                22813   0.00   -0.01   16    -1        1     2   ---
     18      Mr. Anderson       22409   0.00   +0.00   17    -1        0     3   ---
     19      Hellhammer         22076   0.00   +0.00   18    -1        0    53   ---
     20   *  Relentless Power   21935  25.35  -13.06   42   +22     3352    15   0h 56.8m
     21   *  Blue Velvet        21645   0.01   +0.00   19    -2        6     2   90d 12h 0.0m
     22      Dagless            21540   0.00   -0.65   20    -2        7    14   ---
     23   *  alphaod            21490   0.73   -0.50   21    -2      134     5   1d 8h 54.5m
     24   *  MacNut             20476   1.10   -0.43   22    -2      313     7   21h 49.7m
     25      Jaffa Cake         19801   0.00   +0.00   24    -1        1    16   ---
     26   *  bartelby           19793   0.02   +0.02   25    -1        1    23   60d 8h 0.0m
     27      iGary              19583   0.00   +0.00   26    -1        0     6   ---
     28      miles01110         19264   0.00   +0.00   27    -1        3     0   ---
     29      PlaceofDis         19232   0.00   +0.00   28    -1        1     3   ---
     30   *  MacDawg            19200   4.40   +3.83   34    +4     1538     0   5h 27.4m
     31      iBlue              19174   0.00   +0.00   29    -2        3    11   ---
     32   *  eyoungren          19163   5.56   -3.77   37    +5     1152   117   4h 19.1m
     33   *  Peace              19141   0.33   -0.55   30    -3      255     5   3d 1h 37.6m
     34      edesignuk          19078   0.00   -0.02   31    -3        1     1   ---
     35   *  balamw             19062   0.20   -0.04   32    -3       18    12   5d 0h 40.0m
     36   *  Intell             18826   0.51   +0.20   33    -3       64    25   1d 22h 42.6m
     37   *  Nermal             18440   0.93   -0.46   36    -1      191    13   1d 1h 51.4m
     38   *  Rogifan            18416   3.94   -0.13   39    +1     2816    18   6h 5.6m
     39      ~Shard~            18385   0.00   +0.00   35    -4        0     1   ---
     40   *  Newtons Apple      18331   9.32   -4.81   46    +6     1279    21   2h 34.5m
     41   *  dukebound85        17886   0.49   +0.18   38    -3      280     3   2d 1h 21.8m
     42   *  IJ Reilly          17869   1.72   -0.54   40    -2      329     2   13h 55.4m
     43   *  DoFoT9             17494   0.04   +0.04   41    -2        2   122   22d 15h 0.0m
     44   *  kdarling           17254   1.52   -3.99   43    -1      327    18   15h 47.8m
     45   *  AidenShaw          17121   2.45   +0.02   45     0      463    13   9h 48.4m
     46      -aggie-            16715   0.00   +0.00   44    -2        0    19   ---
     47   *  jav6454            16691   7.74   +7.21  ---   ---      906     9   3h 6.0m
     48   *  ucfgrad93          16642   0.75   -0.17   49    +1      811     8   1d 8h 10.7m
     49      wdlove             16570   0.00   +0.00   47    -2        0     0   ---
     50   *  samcraig           16547   0.03   -0.26   48    -2     4650     9   36d 4h 48.0m
    

    Table Columns:
    • Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50 (lowest).
    • A = * for currently active users (at least 1 post over the last 6 months).
    • Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    • Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    • Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
    • Delta Rate = change in average daily post rate from the previous 6-month period to the latest 6-month period.
    • Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (Jan 2018), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    • Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
    • 6-Mo Likes = (MISSING DATA) number of likes received in the last 6 months.
    • Followers = current number of forum followers.
    • Avg of one post every = average time between member's posts, in days, hours, and minutes, based on a 24-hour day. Multiply by 2/3 for the average time between posts within waking hours (assuming 16 waking hours/day).
    Note: Posts in any of the following forums are not counted in either post totals or post rates. If a thread is moved to one of those forums, a member's post count total decreases, and that change will appear in the next post count totals.


    Remarks
    1. It now takes 16,547 posts to reach the Top 50, an increase of 185 from 16,362 six months ago. The previous increase was 443.

    2. There are again no changes in membership for the Top 10.

    3. The order within the Top 10 is also unchanged, with the exception of @Scepticalscribe moving up 2 positions. She also has the highest post rate in the Top 10, and the second-highest rate in the Top 50.

    4. Despite large differences in their post rates (0.48 vs. 12.46), both @GGJstudios and @C DM maintained their relative ranks.

    5. @GoCubsGo continues to have the lowest non-zero post rate in the Top 10. The lowest non-zero rate in the Top 50 belongs to @Blue Velvet, who posted twice in 6 months. She was also listed as inactive in the prior version of this table.

    6. At the opposite extreme, @Relentless Power's post rate is, well, relentless. He managed not only the largest increase in rank, a remarkable +22, but is the only member with an average post rate faster than one post per hour. Still, his average post rate actually decreased, and by the largest amount in the Top 50.

    7. @Apple fanboy has the second-highest increase in rank, and the third-highest post rate. With Relentless Power coming up rapidly on the outside, I may have to calculate some shorter-term acceleration curves before picking which horse to bet on at the next furlong marker.

    8. Among the middle range of posters, @MacDawg and @eyoungren are poised to rapidly move up several positions, as they approach a "zone of stasis" occupied by several inactive members with similar total post counts.

    9. @jav6454 debuted in the Top 50 at position 47, with the 6th highest post rate.

    10. Admin/editor @WildCowboy moseyed off the list, missing the cut by fewer than 150 posts.

    Other Stats and Tables

    Previous Threads

    2003 (July); 2004 (January, July)

    2005 (January, July); 2006 (January, July); 2007 (January, July); 2008 (January, July); 2009 (January, July)

    2010 (January, July); 2011 (January, July); 2012 (January, July); 2013 (January, July); 2014 (January, July)

    2015 (January, July), 2016 (January, July), 2017 (January, July), 2018 (January)
     
  2. GGJstudios macrumors Westmere

    GGJstudios

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    May 16, 2008
  3. chown33, Jul 4, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2018

    chown33 thread starter macrumors 604

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2009
    Location:
    Sailing beyond the sunset
    #3
    2018-07-14 EDIT NOTES:
    • Corrected some errors in the previous data. This reduced the Proj Posts counts, due to an error in calculating days between dates. There was no net effect on rank, except that @The Game 161 is projected to enter the Top 50.
    • Revised the Remarks section to match the corrections.

    Table 2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Measurements taken 03 July 2018 by chown33.
    Corrections posted 14 July 2018 by chown33.

    Code:
    Proj     Projection        Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  A  04 Jan 2019       Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  -  ----------------  ------  ----  -----
      1   *  maflynn            60588    1     0
      2   *  C DM               45979    3    +1
      3   *  GGJstudios         44116    2    -1
      4      Applejuiced        40650    4     0
      5   *  GoCubsGo           35741    5     0
      6   *  Doctor Q           35254    6     0
      7   *  Scepticalscribe    35082    8    +1
      8      mad jew            32194    7    -1
      9      mkrishnan          29641    9     0
     10   *  Eidorian           29077   10     0
     11   *  Weaselboy          27771   12    +1
     12   *  rdowns             27352   11    -1
     13   *  Apple fanboy       26704   15    +2
     14   *  Relentless Power   26600   20    +6
     15      robbieduncan       24480   13    -2
     16   *  Abstract           24338   14    -2
     17   *  SandboxGeneral     23569   16    -1
     18      jsw                22813   17    -1
     19      Mr. Anderson       22409   18    -1
     20      Hellhammer         22076   19    -1
     21   *  Blue Velvet        21647   21     0
     22   *  alphaod            21624   23    +1
     23      Dagless            21540   22    -1
     24   *  MacNut             20678   24     0
     25   *  eyoungren          20185   32    +7
     26   *  Newtons Apple      20045   40   +14
     27   *  MacDawg            20009   30    +3
     28      Jaffa Cake         19801   25    -3
     29   *  bartelby           19796   26    -3
     30      iGary              19583   27    -3
     31      miles01110         19264   28    -3
     32      PlaceofDis         19232   29    -3
     33   *  Peace              19200   33     0
     34      iBlue              19174   31    -3
     35   *  Rogifan            19140   38    +3
     36   *  balamw             19098   35    -1
     37      edesignuk          19078   34    -3
     38   *  Intell             18920   36    -2
     39   *  Nermal             18610   37    -2
     40      ~Shard~            18385   39    -1
     41   *  IJ Reilly          18186   42    +1
     42   *  jav6454            18115   47    +5
     43   *  dukebound85        17975   41    -2
     44   *  AidenShaw          17571   45    +1
     45   *  kdarling           17533   44    -1
     46   *  DoFoT9             17502   43    -3
     47   *  The Game 161       16850   58   +11   <-- debut
     48   *  ucfgrad93          16779   48     0
     49      -aggie-            16715   46    -3
     50      wdlove             16570   49    -1
    

    Table Columns:
    • Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    • A = * for currently active users (at least 1 post over the last 6 months).
    • Projection 04 Jan 2019 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    • Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    • Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2018 (see Table #1 above), or a rank above 50 for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    • Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

    Remarks
    1. There are again no changes projected for membership in the Top 10. Same members, different order.

    2. @The Game 161 is projected to enter the Top 50. I missed this in the earlier version of the table because I had some bad data. The Cur Rank of 58 means he's at position 58, outside the Top 50. The +11 means his 6-mo post rate since Jan 2018 is projected to advance him 11 places, into the Top 50.

    3. @Scepticalscribe should finally pass @mad jew. This is a historical benchmark achievement, which even has its own report Can mad jew be Stopped?.

    4. @C DM should pass @GGJstudios. In Jan 2018, this was projected to happen by July 2018. It didn't. I may look into a different projection calculation. Or just keep making this prediction until it comes true.

    5. Two of the more recent members of the Top 50, @Relentless Power and @Apple fanboy, should be in a close race for 13th and 14th. Only 104 posts separate their projected counts for Jan 2019. I expect this difference is less than the accuracy of the projection itself. Relentless Power was projected to be in 14th position in July 2018, which wasn't achieved. Apple fanboy was projected to be in 17th position, which was surpassed. So the racing tip of the day is: predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

    6. Three other members, @eyoungren, @Newtons Apple, and @MacDawg, will also be close, with a total difference of only 176 posts. Newtons Apple has the higher post rate now, but that can easily change in 6 month's time.
     
  4. Expobill macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    What is the record for most merged post in one post?
     
  5. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #5
    Thank you, @chown33, for taking on this incredibly demanding and doubtless time consuming task so admirably carried out by @Doctor Q for so long.

    As always, I love these tables and studying this number crunching stuff.
     
  6. MacDawg macrumors Core

    MacDawg

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    #6
    Thanks for taking the mantle passed to you
    It is always an interesting read, and we greatly appreciate the work done
     
  7. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

    Staff Member

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    #7
    Nice job and thanks for taking this up :)
     
  8. chown33 thread starter macrumors 604

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    #8
    It was either statistics or more hot dogs and beer. I chose beer and statistics (not necessarily in that order).
     
  9. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

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    #9
    2018-07-04_15-53-52.png

    Sorry, couldn't resist hotdogs and beer > statistics :D
     
  10. MacDawg macrumors Core

    MacDawg

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    #10
    Maybe a couple of dogs... but hopefully not as many as Joey Chestnut
     
  11. SandboxGeneral, Jul 4, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018

    SandboxGeneral Moderator emeritus

    SandboxGeneral

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    #11
    Nice job @chown33. Glad you've stepped up to keep this fascinating tradition going.
     
  12. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    Location:
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    #12
    Hot dogs, beer and statistics go very well together. Or so I have found when analysing electoral returns and electoral data.

    In any case, I am delighted that this venerable tradition is being continued and that you have taken up the mantle of the esteemed @Doctor Q. Bravo, and well done.

    Agreed.
     
  13. Apple fanboy macrumors Penryn

    Apple fanboy

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    Behind the Lens, UK
    #13
    Thanks for taking the time to do this. Much appreciated.
    --- Post Merged, Jul 4, 2018 ---
    Interesting stuff. I'm glad I'm exceeding expectations! The fact that I don't have much else going on probably helps immensely!
     
  14. TheAppleFairy macrumors 68020

    TheAppleFairy

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    The Clinton Archipelago unfortunately
    #14
    Question about:
    • Avg of one post every = average time between member's posts, in days, hours, and minutes, based on a 24-hour day. Multiply by 2/3 for the average time between posts within waking hours (assuming 16 waking hours/day).
    I assume you are taking their join date to current date timeline and averaging their total post within that span correct?

    That would explain how someone who makes a new thread nearly every day has avg of one post every 36 days.


    I'd like to see statistics from just the past 365 days and see time between post. It appears that some people were fairly inactive for years before becoming very active posters.
     
  15. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

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    #15
    Very nice-looking statistics and a good analysis!

    I'm very pleased to see the MacRumors navel-gazing tradition continue in the capable hands of chown33, who clearly has a well-oiled abacus.
     
  16. MacDawg macrumors Core

    MacDawg

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    #16
    Thank you Doctor for starting this analysis and tradition, it has been a staple around here for some time now
    We appreciate the time and energy it took to put it together initially and to perpetuate it at regular intervals
    Now that the mantle has passed, we are happy to see the tradition continued
     
  17. Gutwrench Contributor

    Gutwrench

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    #17
    Any chance of adding a ‘reported posts’ category?
     
  18. SandboxGeneral Moderator emeritus

    SandboxGeneral

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    #18
  19. Gutwrench Contributor

    Gutwrench

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    #19
  20. chown33, Jul 4, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018

    chown33 thread starter macrumors 604

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    #20
    Not every post counts. In particular, posts made in PRSI are not counted in "total posts". I will add that note to Table 1.

    Another area where posts aren't counted is Wasteland. There might be a 3rd, but I need to check.


    Regarding join date, no members currently in the Top 50 actually joined in the prior 6-month interval. That is, none are new members since Jan 2018, although one is new to the Top 50. His total post count was being collected in Jan 2018, though, so I calculated the posts since that point to determine post rate.

    I used the same calculation for everyone's post rate:
    ( current_post_count - Jan_2018_post count ) / day_count_since_Jan_2018​

    There's actually some errors that arise due to this calculation and how posts are counted or not.

    Suppose a user has made some posts in an area that's counted, and their post count increases. If that thread is moved to an uncounted area, such as Wasteland, then that user's total post count decreases. Since the 6-month post count is calculated as the total post-counts on two separate dates, it's possible for posts to be made (increase count), posts to then become uncounted (decrease count), and there be a net change of zero posts, or even negative.

    For an example where I think this actually happened, look at user @DoFoT9. According to Table 1, he's inactive over the prior 6 months. But look at his recent post history, and there are about a half-dozen posts made in May 2018. The only explanation I have for the result is that roughly a half-dozen previous posts were in a thread that was either deleted or moved to Wasteland.

    I realize this introduces some inaccuracy in total post counts, and in the binary active/inactive state. I don't have a practical way of correcting for this inaccuracy, and historically it was always done this way (change in total post count), so I will reluctantly haul out the "It's for Hysterical Raisins Historical Reasons" flag and wave it around here.​

    Doctor Q only starts collecting data after a member's post count passes 5000. The statistics aren't taken using forum maintenance or admin tools. I basically get a list of user names from Dr Q, and everything else I have to collect by scripting HTTP requests and scraping data out of HTML replies.

    Since PRSI posts aren't counted in the totals, there's no practical way to get a "total posts including PRSI" count, and then limit that to a specific 365-day interval.
     
  21. TheAppleFairy macrumors 68020

    TheAppleFairy

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    The Clinton Archipelago unfortunately
    #21

    Interesting, thanks for the clarification.
     
  22. MacDawg macrumors Core

    MacDawg

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    #22
    Actually there are several other areas where posts don't count, unless the posts in your research are different from that in the FAQ (which might be the case)

    From the FAQ
    https://macrumors.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/201364093-I-think-that-my-post-count-is-wrong-
     
  23. chown33 thread starter macrumors 604

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    #23
    I think that list is correct, I just couldn't remember where it listed them all. It omits Wasteland, but the forums it names are all uncounted, AFAIK. I can probably dig into a few cases where I have some detailed data, but that will have to wait for another day.
    --- Post Merged, Jul 4, 2018 ---
    Carnauba wax, my friend, not oil.
     
  24. Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #24
    Well, thank you @chown33, for compiling these stats, and, as always, it makes for fascinating reading.

    This is a thread I have always read with rapt and absorbed attention ever since I joined MR a decade ago (although I never envisaged that I would feature in it myself as this is the even first online community I had ever joined).
     
  25. rhett7660 macrumors G4

    rhett7660

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    #25
    Outstanding job and way to take the torch and run with it! Nicely done @chown33
     

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