Nice insight... your sources?
Just my general awesomeness.
I obviously have no sources. But I do think there are a few definitive patterns Apple follows. One of them is this - don't cannibalize sales or media attention by rolling out multiple new/big items at the same time; rather, allow for a couple of months at a minimum between a new iPhone and a new iPod line, or between a new iPad and a big refresh of Macs. Another pattern is that when they roll out a very new product (such as the iPhone 1, or Apple TV, etc.), make it fairly bare bones so that people can get used to it, so that it can begin an easy integration into your life, your home, and so on.
So why do I mention that? Because we all know (at least with 93% certainty) that the North Carolina data center is Apple's entry into some form of cloud computing. We also know that Amazon just threw the gauntlet down by unveiling its cloud. We also know things are moving fast with cable networks, studios, etc. racing to get apps and content onto your mobile device, especially your iPad.
All the while, the iPhone sales appear to be kicking ass, and besides a larger screen, there doesn't seem to be anything that Joe Public is fretting about not having in the iPhone. For the average non-macrumors.com crowd, the iPhone 4 is plenty sufficient and remains in high demand.
So, in my mind, I smush all of that "data" together, and I believe strongly that there is a blackboard in Steve Jobs office that looks at the forest - not the trees - and shows April/May media event to roll out cloud, and shows the summer as an educational time for consumers to begin integrating cloud into their lives, late summer a new line of iPods that make strong use of the cloud, and perhaps (emphasis on perhaps) a new iPad the has strong cloud integration for holiday sales.
Another way I look at the iPhone 4 is this - it's like when Apple plateaued, in a good way, with Leopard. Apple essentially said, this is awesome, let's chill with this. The most we'll do is tighten up the code a bit with Snow Leopard. The iPhone 4 is like Leopard. While us Apple geeks - me included - enjoy pondering how much more we need out of the iPhone 5, the reality is the vast majority of mobile phone customers are more than satisfied by the iPhone 4, and there is little need for Apple to take attention off the pending cloud release and focus on a iPhone 5.
Just
my
thoughts.
I yield the floor.