Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Think a trade war is a good idea?

  • Sure, why not

    Votes: 5 16.7%
  • NO

    Votes: 25 83.3%

  • Total voters
    30
@Falhófnir

Trade deficit != budget deficit -> government only has direct impact on the 2nd

German export != only cars -> lots of of other areas where German product actually are superior
True to say you can run a trade deficit and a budget surplus, but it costs jobs and is difficult to do in the long term as blue and capital leaks out of the deficit country.

The car industry is keystone, and supports a huge network of suppliers below, and dealers and aftermarket industries above... if it starts to struggle, it will have deep consequences throughout the German manufacturing sector.

Southern EU countries either need to fix themselves or accept lower living standard -> wether that happens by reducing wages in € or inflating their own currency makes little difference (assuming they don't start fixing themselves)
You were the ones who pushed for a single currency, you are the ones who benefit from a single currency - you need to understand that there is a cost associated with a currency union - and that is because it makes weaker economies suffer, the more prosperous parts have to transfer enormous sums of money back there to stop it all collapsing. Its what the US federal government does, the Euro isn't any different.

The real cheek is that the European union is used as a kind of cover for doing this, but including countries who (sensibly) chose not to use the Euro - The Scandinavians and Britain in particular. When all the benefit is going in one direction, it's not difficult to see why populists are doing so well on the continent, and Britain has decided to abandon ship altogether. I really feel the German people need a reality check as to just how much everything in the whole EU set up benefits them systemically.

Spare me the 2% nonsense, European part of NATO would be more then strong enough to deter any "ideas" and most of the actual security risks are down to the US f###ing around in place the had no business in
So you'd really be happy to see the US withdraw support? What about when Britain follows suit and the whole continent is trying to crowd under a rather flimsy looking French nuclear umbrella? I wouldn't be taking the US for granted any more.

Big (partly) state owned companies:
- DHL -> partly privatized postal service
- DB -> partly privatized railways
- VW -> 25% owned by LowerSaxoni for some rather complicated historic reasons
So even if that was the reason for German success (which it isn't), why not try to copy it instead of destroying it.

If you think Merkel and her government being less noisy than Trump is a sign of weakness, your in for a surprise, cos capitulating to the US would not only create a massive public backclash but also invite others to try something similar.
You can add BMW to the list, Airbus, EADS, etc - all competing with private international companies, and all backed up by public money.

The very bone of contention also puts you in a very weak position - mutually damaging tariffs would nonetheless damage you far more as a net exporter. Encourage consumer spending to reduce your surplus (mutually beneficial) or face action to reduce it punitively (mutually damaging) - I wonder if Mutti will rediscover her famous pragmatism that's gone missing in recent years?

In Germany last year I asked some questions about reunification with the DDR, which from here appears to be nothing less than a political and economic miracle. I found those who I asked to be rather blasé about it. I know reunification wasn't without pain or consequences (some of them ongoing), but my conclusion overall is the German people simply expected their government to make it work. How different that is from the country we Americans live in today. So much of our government and politics is about the outright destruction of any concept of the common good for the purpose of gaining political advantage. And we have the right to complain about a nation that made the impossible look easy? Not in my book, we don't.
That's something that helped the German economy, or at the very lest the manufacturing sector - like getting millions of workers, who speak the language perfectly so there's no contention but will work for far less injected into the system. Probably a big reason why German manufacturing held up so well through the 1990s and 2000s. Big task or no, it doesn't excuse taking advantage of other nations for your own financial benefit, and if they won't listen to reason then the fall back is sanctions.
 
@IJ Reilly

Oh, rest assured there was plenty of talk about "rebuilding the wall ........ 5m higher" in WestGermany throughout the 90s and noone who has a basic clue would say it was or looked easy.

I know it wasn't at all easy, but it was made to work, that was my point. In this country today we couldn't achieve a consensus on whether the sun rises in the east. My other is, we have no basis to complain about nations that manage their government so much better than we do.
[doublepost=1520789153][/doublepost]
That's something that helped the German economy, or at the very lest the manufacturing sector - like getting millions of workers, who speak the language perfectly so there's no contention but will work for far less injected into the system. Probably a big reason why German manufacturing held up so well through the 1990s and 2000s. Big task or no, it doesn't excuse taking advantage of other nations for your own financial benefit, and if they won't listen to reason then the fall back is sanctions.

Mostly apocryphal. See above.
 
You were the ones who pushed for a single currency,

Nope, that was the French price for not blocking unification

So you'd really be happy to see the US withdraw support?

Sure, and out of 100 or so other countries too if you'd ask me.

They aren't here for our protection, they are here to project US power.

As for the "nuclear umbrella", *shrug* I'm sure we could more than enough ourselves from the money we could save by not helping to clean up US F###ups.

Not that that idea would be really popular with either the US or other European countries.
 
Nope, that was the French price for not blocking unification



Sure, and out of 100 or so other countries too if you'd ask me.

They aren't here for our protection, they are here to project US power.

As for the "nuclear umbrella", *shrug* I'm sure we could more than enough ourselves from the money we could save by not helping to clean up US F###ups.

Not that that idea would be really popular with either the US or other European countries.
I feel this has drifted off topic, would you care to respond to the central point in question:

That compared to the size of it’s economy, Germany runs an excessive trade surplus - driven largely by policies that suppress it’s consumption of international goods

And as relates to the plot of this thread:

Because of aforementioned concerns, Germany does not deserve to be excluded from steel and aluminium tariffs as proposed by president Trump, and if that isn’t enough cajoling to play fair, then the flagship German car industry should also be subjected to tariffs.
 
I feel this has drifted off topic, would you care to respond to the central point in question:

That compared to the size of it’s economy, Germany runs an excessive trade surplus - driven largely by policies that suppress it’s consumption of international goods

And as relates to the plot of this thread:

Because of aforementioned concerns, Germany does not deserve to be excluded from steel and aluminium tariffs as proposed by president Trump, and if that isn’t enough cajoling to play fair, then the flagship German car industry should also be subjected to tariffs.

Baloney. Germany does no more to "supress" consumption than the U.S. does to encourage it. Blaming other nations for managing their economies successfully is pure lunacy. Our gross economic mismanagement is not their fault, it's ours, and no amount of tariffs are going to fix that, they can only make the situation far worse.
 
Baloney. Germany does no more to "supress" consumption than the U.S. does to encourage it. Blaming other nations for managing their economies successfully is pure lunacy. Our gross economic mismanagement is not their fault, it's ours, and no amount of tariffs are going to fix that, they can only make the situation far worse.
I would direct you to my posts #306 and #308.
 
Pray for hurricanes. Even a disaster is good for somebody.
There will always be someone who will profit from bad news and good news. When ever someone pays a price for something someone else profits off of it. When you get a $700 speeeding ticket that fine is a loss for you and takes a toll on your finances but your loss was the government’s gain. When a couple gets divorced lawyers profit. There will always be good in bad for someone out there.
 
There will always be someone who will profit from bad news and good news. When ever someone pays a price for something someone else profits off of it. When you get a $700 speeeding ticket that fine is a loss for you and takes a toll on your finances but your loss was the government’s gain. When a couple gets divorced lawyers profit. There will always be good in bad for someone out there.

I need to point out a false equivalency here. When you buy something, you don't lose the money, you exchange it with the seller for something that you need. Both the buyer and seller gain in the transaction. This principle happens to be the cornerstone of all economics. This is not the same concept as a disaster, where a small number gain from the loses of many more. So when you cheerlead for bad economic decisions so the markets can have "good correction" then you are following from the latter analogy, not the former. You are praying for a hurricane, in which many will suffer for the gain of a few.

Just so we know.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Raid
I need to point out a false equivalency here. When you buy something, you don't lose the money, you exchange it with the seller for something that you need. Both the buyer and seller gain in the transaction. This principle happens to be the cornerstone of all economics. This is not the same concept as a disaster, where a small number gain from the loses of many more. So when you cheerlead for bad economic decisions so the markets can have "good correction" then you are following from the latter analogy, not the former. You are praying for a hurricane, in which many will suffer for the gain of a few.

Just so we know.
You are correct. What I was implying to when I said this was when markets crash or correct those that bought PUTS or shorted make good money so as those who bought for gains lose money those that bought shorts make money as markets drop. Could be shares,indexes,commodities or forex currencies. I am not for the hurricane thing though.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.