Update now, or wait for Skylake?

[vbedia]

Because people sell them when they are only a year old, at which point they are the same as whats in the refurb store. Once you get to 2 years and 2 updates later it drops again to around 50-60%, Your 2012 is now 3 updates behind seems about right to me...

Selling a year old computer and expecting to recoup up to 80% of its value seems a bit excessive to me.

On the other hand, I would not buy a brand new 15" rMBP for over $2500, which carries tech that is almost 2 year old, so people interested in that computer may find much better deals in the second hand market. What I am trying to say is anyone who wants to sell/get rid of their 15" rMBP now it could be a good time, from a economic point of view.

 

[lcseds]

I see people claim this all the time. I personally haven't found that to be the case. How are you getting that kind of money for a used computer? I'm getting 50%, at best. I got about 45% for my 2011 in 2012, and i can't see getting more than 50% for my 2012 now.

If i could get over $2k for mine today, I'd jump at the opportunity. Paid almost $3k. The base model 15" w/discreet graphics, today sells for less than 70% of what i paid and now has comparable specs to my higher end CTO model from 2012.

Campfire stories, myth, urban legend, water cooler talk. These notebooks loose 20-25% the minute you break the shrink wrap (look at refurb pricing vs new). Plus, you will need to beat refurb price if your used one has less than a year warranty on it.
Similar to cars. It's like imports vs US cars. Many say the imports have a higher resale. Well I hope so, you can get a Honda for maybe $1-2K below sticker. I can get a Ford for $4-5K off sticker. So when you pay more in the first place (Dell vs Apple) you will get more for the Apple. What people ask on Craigslist and such is not what they take.

----------

I'm in the same boat: I have a mid-2009 MBP that doesn't even have SSD. The thing is, if we wait until Skylake is released and the MBP really gets a new design... People will tell you then to wait until the 2nd generation because the first one usually have a lot of issues (this is what's happening with the rMB). So what, we wait until 2017?

No, later than that. After rev 2 is out, it will be "wait for cannonlake". Never ends. 1st Gen of a redesign seems to always have an issue. The current models have the kinks out and are solid.

 

[Derived]

I stand by that we'll see 15" (or a new 16" size) rMBPs with Skylake this year. Skylake is a huge update, and the current machines are massively outdated. This isn't just like a yearly spec bump, where if you miss it, no big deal. If you literally need a computer now, of course you have no choice. But if you can wait just 6 months, I think that's wise. The 15" model will not be getting Broadwell.

 

[Atomic Walrus]

I'd agree that the "optimal" choice is usually a 2nd revision of a new design. 3rd+ revision usually means a device that's a bit past its prime in some ways (but still sells for the same price), 1st version often has issues.

For example I'd buy a Surface Pro 2 over a 3 (better pen digitizer, less thermal throttling, and it has better battery life and display quality than the SP1).

If I were buying a 15" rMBP right now I'd probably try to find a good deal on the Haswell (2013) model since it's basically identical to the 2014 model, but will be lower in price because it's technically a generation older.

 

[Samtb]

I stand by that we'll see 15" (or a new 16" size) rMBPs with Skylake this year. Skylake is a huge update, and the current machines are massively outdated. This isn't just like a yearly spec bump, where if you miss it, no big deal. If you literally need a computer now, of course you have no choice. But if you can wait just 6 months, I think that's wise. The 15" model will not be getting Broadwell.

Do you think we'll see this at WWDC?

 

[wct097]

Because people sell them when they are only a year old, at which point they are the same as whats in the refurb store. Once you get to 2 years and 2 updates later it drops again to around 50-60%, Your 2012 is now 3 updates behind seems about right to me...

The quoted post said "year or two". Even so, I find it hard to believe people are paying 80% of retail for a used machine that is almost out of warranty. Furthermore, if you're actually selling it at a 20-30% loss in less than a year every time, then it's roughly the same as waiting 2 years and selling for 40%.

Either way, I'd love to find the kind of Craigslist idiots paying 80% of retail for a used and out of warranty computer that you can get refurbed as a better deal.

For the record, my 2012 has a proc that's only 1 generation behind the current procs. Those mid-year updates don't really count in my book. The 2013 "update" only changed the next to top end proc from the 3720QM (that I have) to the 3740QM. The Haswell update in 2013 moved up to the 4850HQ followed by the 4870HQ in 2014. The majority of users can't tell the difference in processing power between my 2012 3270QM and the latest 4870HQ. The bigger difference in the used/older machine, IMO, is the battery capacity. Mine is down to 80% of design capacity after ~515 load cycles.

I'm holding out for Skylake because this currently isn't enough difference to warrant me selling my 2012 for ~$1200 and dropping $3k on the latest and greatest: http://cpuboss.com/cpus/Intel-Core-i7-4870HQ-vs-Intel-Core-i7-3720QM Hopefully Skylake will result in a redesign, better battery life, and better performance. If they delay the release, I may spring for a battery refresh in this machine.

 

[S.L.]

I see people claim this all the time. I personally haven't found that to be the case. How are you getting that kind of money for a used computer? I'm getting 50%, at best. I got about 45% for my 2011 in 2012, and i can't see getting more than 50% for my 2012 now.

If i could get over $2k for mine today, I'd jump at the opportunity. Paid almost $3k. The base model 15" w/discreet graphics, today sells for less than 70% of what i paid and now has comparable specs to my higher end CTO model from 2012.

Paid $2K for my '12 rMBP 16GB RAM 256 SSD in 2012, sold it about six weeks ago for $1400.

Always Craigslist, always cash.

 

[iPaintCode]

I fear Skylake might suffer from the same issue Broadwell did. Sure it's projected for late 2015 but given Intel's track record mid 2106 for Quad Core Skylake might be more factual. Can't fault Apple but Intel's aggressive launch dates and not delivering.

 

[Samuelsan2001]

The quoted post said "year or two". Even so, I find it hard to believe people are paying 80% of retail for a used machine that is almost out of warranty. Furthermore, if you're actually selling it at a 20-30% loss in less than a year every time, then it's roughly the same as waiting 2 years and selling for 40%.

Either way, I'd love to find the kind of Craigslist idiots paying 80% of retail for a used and out of warranty computer that you can get refurbed as a better deal.

For the record, my 2012 has a proc that's only 1 generation behind the current procs. Those mid-year updates don't really count in my book. The 2013 "update" only changed the next to top end proc from the 3720QM (that I have) to the 3740QM. The Haswell update in 2013 moved up to the 4850HQ followed by the 4870HQ in 2014. The majority of users can't tell the difference in processing power between my 2012 3270QM and the latest 4870HQ. The bigger difference in the used/older machine, IMO, is the battery capacity. Mine is down to 80% of design capacity after ~515 load cycles.

I'm holding out for Skylake because this currently isn't enough difference to warrant me selling my 2012 for ~$1200 and dropping $3k on the latest and greatest: http://cpuboss.com/cpus/Intel-Core-i7-4870HQ-vs-Intel-Core-i7-3720QM Hopefully Skylake will result in a redesign, better battery life, and better performance. If they delay the release, I may spring for a battery refresh in this machine.

Those mid year updates do make a difference on price though....

All of my information is from the UK market and our Apple products cost more originally and hold their price better, sometimes it sucks to be in the US and resale is that time.

 

[Derived]

Do you think we'll see this at WWDC?

No guarantees, but I think it's possible. Skyline is supposed to be ready to go for H2 2015, and given that Apple is a huge partner (and it's already been said that Apple is going to jump to Skylake this year as soon as possible), I imagine they'll get some of the first Skylake devices out. They've had first dibs on Intel chips many times in the past. Since Apple is the only OE that is still having rapid expansion in their portable market, this would make lots of sense. Announced at WWDC, available in July sometime. Kind of like how the Macbook was announced this week and will be available next month.

----------

I fear Skylake might suffer from the same issue Broadwell did. Sure it's projected for late 2015 but given Intel's track record mid 2106 for Quad Core Skylake might be more factual. Can't fault Apple but Intel's aggressive launch dates and not delivering.

It won't. Entirely different process. It's entirely unaffected by what happened to Broadwell. Something very bad would have to happen for them to go off-track with it.

 

[Kaster]

Uch, I waited for Ivy Bridge (decided not to upgrade). Then I waited for Haswell, now finally Broadwell and my laptop has limped on ever since. My advice would be to upgrade now if you need to replace your laptop. Nobody knows what the future holds and you will have to wait until the next upgrade cycle (usually about a year). You may even wait to discover they have shaved off a few more ports in the next redesign lol

 

[JoelBC]

I am in the same boat as many here in that I have a mid-2012 MBA with 8GB of RAM and a 256 GB SSD that has served me well over the years but since I purchased it I have started to write code and would like 16 GB of RAM [or, ideally, more] as I also run a VM for a few work related applications.

I was thinking about the just released / update 13" rMBP but have decided to hold-off for Skylake as it is supposed to be a major upgrade. I hope it will be released within the next 6 months.

One other thing to note...I find moving to a new laptop to be a time intensive activity because I like to re-build from a clean install and this can take days to get fully and properly configured. I mention this because I would like to do this as little as possible.

Thanks.

 

[wct097]

One other thing to note...I find moving to a new laptop to be a time intensive activity because I like to re-build from a clean install and this can take days to get fully and properly configured. I mention this because I would like to do this as little as possible.

This is one of the reasons I like working with virtual machines for "work". If I have to replace the hardware, I'm back up and running in a very short amount of time simply by copying the VM from one machine to the next.

 

[2IS]

I see people claim this all the time. I personally haven't found that to be the case. How are you getting that kind of money for a used computer? I'm getting 50%, at best. I got about 45% for my 2011 in 2012, and i can't see getting more than 50% for my 2012 now.

If i could get over $2k for mine today, I'd jump at the opportunity. Paid almost $3k. The base model 15" w/discreet graphics, today sells for less than 70% of what i paid and now has comparable specs to my higher end CTO model from 2012.

Agreed... Either these people are surrounded by uninformed buyers, which if that's the case, good on them for being able to take advantage of that situation, or they're rounding up very generously. Generally speaking, year to year MacBook updaters aren't THAT significant, so even if you are getting 80% back on a 1 year old rMBP, which is unlikely to begin with, you're still spending more and getting very little in return. You might get 80% back from a 1 generation old rMBP if it was still factory sealed. On a used one, i'm just not buying it.

As to the OP's question. If your current MBP is still doing what you need it to do, I'd wait. Skylake, USB-C and a potential redesign are all very likely possibilities for the next rMBP, which IMO makes it worth waiting for. I'm on a 2010 MBA, which aside from having a SSD is slower likely in other aspects to your MBP and the only way I'm upgrading now is if I experience a hardware failure of some sort... Actually even then, i'd probably use my backup Lenovo Thinkpad while I wait it out.

 

[geoelectric]

Agreed... Either these people are surrounded by uninformed buyers, which if that's the case, good on them for being able to take advantage of that situation, or they're rounding up very generously. Generally speaking, year to year MacBook updaters aren't THAT significant, so even if you are getting 80% back on a 1 year old rMBP, which is unlikely to begin with, you're still spending more and getting very little in return. You might get 80% back from a 1 generation old rMBP if it was still factory sealed. On a used one, i'm just not buying it.

As to the OP's question. If your current MBP is still doing what you need it to do, I'd wait. Skylake, USB-C and a potential redesign are all very likely possibilities for the next rMBP, which IMO makes it worth waiting for. I'm on a 2010 MBA, which aside from having a SSD is slower likely in other aspects to your MBP and the only way I'm upgrading now is if I experience a hardware failure of some sort... Actually even then, i'd probably use my backup Lenovo Thinkpad while I wait it out.

I suspect it depends on market. I just checked SF Bay Area Craigslist, and I'm seeing $1000-1500 for 2013/2014 MacBook Pro 13s, some higher. But the $1K ones look a little sketchy, TBH.

My own experience has been roughly 2/3 price within a year or two for one that's been well cared for. 80% seems high for sure, but 50% seems like that might have been accepting the first offer that came along.

It also depends on the spec. Contrary to what I'd intuitively expect, the higher-spec ones seem to actually hold their value proportionately better, probably because they don't seem quite as outdated compared to current standards.

 

[puma1552]

I honestly don't see Apple putting Skylake in - or redesigning the computer - until WWDC 2016 if not fall 2016. Apple milks the crap out of severely outdated hardware for obscene periods of time.

That said, I'd wait. Skylake will be worth it.

As for people selling every year, most of those stories are BS and/or they are people who buy the bottom end machine every year. Personally I'd rather shell out $3k for a top end CTO once every five years and appreciate the hell out of it, knowing Apple will basically still be selling that model for the next three years as it notches down a slot in the lineup each year but basically remains for sale.

 

[ZBoater]

I say wait for Cannonlake. Now THAT one will definitely be worth it.

 

[capathy21]

I see people claim this all the time. I personally haven't found that to be the case. How are you getting that kind of money for a used computer? I'm getting 50%, at best. I got about 45% for my 2011 in 2012, and i can't see getting more than 50% for my 2012 now.

If i could get over $2k for mine today, I'd jump at the opportunity. Paid almost $3k. The base model 15" w/discreet graphics, today sells for less than 70% of what i paid and now has comparable specs to my higher end CTO model from 2012.

The key is to get a good deal when you buy one, then you can recoup most of your money when you sell it a year later. Places like Best Buy and B and H are constantly running specials. There's really never a reason to pay full price for a Mac when you can take a few minutes to find a sale or coupon and save hundreds. Then when you sell it, it's used value isn't much less that what you paid.

 

[KenAFSPC]

I fear Skylake might suffer from the same issue Broadwell did. Sure it's projected for late 2015 but given Intel's track record mid 2106 for Quad Core Skylake might be more factual. Can't fault Apple but Intel's aggressive launch dates and not delivering.

Some context is required here.

When Intel says that it will ship a processor in Q4, Intel means that it intends to start shipping the product to OEMs (like Apple) so they can finalize their designs and begin manufacturing. It doesn't mean that the product will be announced, and it certainly doesn't mean the product will be available to consumers. Historically, whenever Intel has said that a processor would ship in Q4, the processor was announced in January (IDF) and became available to consumers in February/March.

Even when Intel announces the availability of a new CPU architecture, it rarely launches all versions of the CPU at once. Typically, Intel will start shipping one or two variants (e.g., dual-core mobile or ultra low power tablet versions) and follow with other variants (e.g., quad-core mobile and desktop) in subsequent months.

Intel may also postpone a launch to reduce inventories of older CPUs.

 

[JoelBC]

This is one of the reasons I like working with virtual machines for "work". If I have to replace the hardware, I'm back up and running in a very short amount of time simply by copying the VM from one machine to the next.

Apologies I should have been clearer...the work related comment in my post was in reference to the need for 16 GB or more of RAM...the configuration / transfer comment was related to the work in setting up a new MacBook [i.e. configuring all the applications, the settings, etc.].

I hope that clarifies things.

 

[Mr. Retrofire]

I say wait for Cannonlake. Now THAT one will definitely be worth it.

Or wait for the Early 2020 Suckwell rMBP with zer0 ports!

 

[addictive]

What changes with Skylake?

Given the recent update with the 13 inch rMBP and the likely 15 inch update later this year I don't see Skylake in Macs this year.

Intel has not had a good track record with pushing out its updates (e.g new models this month rather than 4Q 2014) and given the need to reclaim some of the funds spent on R&D for Broadwell I can't see Intel releasing Skylake until 2016.

I see Apple redesigning the rMBP and releasing it around the time of WWDC 2016. Installing Skylake, USB-C and the edge to edge butterfly keyboard among other changes. I would guess Apple will also allow the rMBP to be ordered in three colours like the new Macbook. I wonder if the Macbook Air will receive Skylake processors or whether the Broadwell Macbook Airs will be the final iteration.

How long will Apple continue selling three different types of laptop?
Retina Macbook
Macbook Air
Retina Macbook Pro

With Apple not giving the Macbook Air a Retina display I do wonder if we are in the final year of sale for the model.

 

[iKrivetko]

If you can afford waiting for Skylake, as in your current device isn't slowing down to a point where it costs you money, and isn't falling apart, I would wait for Skylake.

 

[Tanax]

Given the recent update with the 13 inch rMBP and the likely 15 inch update later this year I don't see Skylake in Macs this year.

Intel has not had a good track record with pushing out its updates (e.g new models this month rather than 4Q 2014) and given the need to reclaim some of the funds spent on R&D for Broadwell I can't see Intel releasing Skylake until 2016.

I see Apple redesigning the rMBP and releasing it around the time of WWDC 2016. Installing Skylake, USB-C and the edge to edge butterfly keyboard among other changes. I would guess Apple will also allow the rMBP to be ordered in three colours like the new Macbook. I wonder if the Macbook Air will receive Skylake processors or whether the Broadwell Macbook Airs will be the final iteration.

How long will Apple continue selling three different types of laptop?
Retina Macbook
Macbook Air
Retina Macbook Pro

With Apple not giving the Macbook Air a Retina display I do wonder if we are in the final year of sale for the model.

Personally, I think next release, they'll drop both the Macbook Pro (non-retina) as well as the Macbook Air, leaving only Macbook Pro and Macbook in their line which makes it much easier to distinguish for the buyers.

Either get the Macbook which is a portable workhorse (but not a workstation) whereas the Macbook Pro is more geared to professionals with more ports and more workpower.

 

[dusk007]

MacBook Pro non retina haven't been in the lineup for a while actually. They changed the name to just MacBook Pro, without the retina. Not sure if it was this or last iteration.
The Air will probably not see another update and disappear from the lineup eventually. The thing is they have to lower the Macbook price if they kill the Air. Currently just because of the price the Air probably still sells good.

What they should do is over another thin 15" Macbook and a 17" MacBook Pro and kill the Air and rearrange prices that show that retina is standard in high quality notebooks not some expensive upgrade.
A 17" retina display might have been expensive when they first launched them but now it would just round out the line up and offer something with a decent dGPU. And there really should be a cheaper more mobile 15" thin bezel option for people that don't need a Pro and just want the display size.