Ok, so I try and explain a little better or in more detail, there is two schools of thinking on this subject.
1 That O2/Apple do something.
From a business point of view, or more to the point to keep hold of your current market position in terms of number of units supplied it would make sense for O2/Apple to offer some sort of upgrade route before the end of your current term. By doing so they could both ensure that customer numbers match if not surpass take up on the 3G. by not offering this, all exsisting customers will have to sit tight, this would then mean that they would be looking to "recruit" new customers. If the iPhone new model isn't something stunning it would be very difficult for O2 to bring in hoards of new customers or more to the point enough that it could justify the cost with launching within the retail situation. Therefore I think they may end up having to do something to just keep the units moving and to ensure the exclusiverty with Apple remains.
2 That O2/Apple do nothing.
By doing this they will become relient on exsisting customer paying huge sums of money to "buy" the new phone but keep their exsisting contract. In the current economic climate the only people that are likely to do this are the true "fans" and whilst most of us are really in love with the iphone typically i doubt we could afford a huge sum of cash right now. Again this means that they will target the non O2 customers, if the phone isnt mind blowing then its going to be a struggle.
In view of this and what is suggested through the later rumours of the site I can see that any new phone this year really will be looking to bring the phone into live with current technology, no big break through on it, a little refresh, some nice tweaks to get those customers who are not currently on plan with O2. next year is likely to see the all singing and dancing iphone. This way both Apple and O2 can ensure a huge influx of takers and evemn maybe some new ons from other networks.
In the marketing arena at the moment the big push is on PR and public perception, not offers and gimiks. The choices made about a new phone will have been taken long before the current economic situation, but the launch and fan fair and business model WILL have to take all of this into account. The PR push to encourage us to change will be the biggest challenege and will be what drives the new product forward. Hopefully O2/Apple will see this and make the right choice.
Therefore I personally believe that we will see something very soon, I dont think it will be anything more than a "facelift" rather than a new singing and dancing phone. O2 will sit on their hands for a while and see how the market holds when first launched without an option to early upgrade and if take up isnt good, then they will offer something to bring us in and upgrade.
Again, all my own personal view, I have no contact with anyone who actuallty knows anything I just use my own experience within business etc.