No, "most" won't switch unless they are out of contract and have complete freedom already to do so.
Industry facts:*
-Average customer retention for AT&T and Verizon is about 51 months. That's over 4 years.
-Average revenue from Smartphone users has declined for 3 years straight. It's down to $83 per month in 2011. That's a drop from $86 in 2010 and $93 from 2009.
-The subsidy that must be paid to the handset manufacturers have quadrupled from $70 just 4 years ago (for a feature phone) to more than $280 per handset today.
-Profit margins are falling rapidly because so many customers quit using voice (existing infrastructure) and switched to heavy data use. Coupled with early subscriptions of unlimited plans, and its pretty apparent why the telco's gouge us so hard on text and data plans anymore. They have oodles of what most customers no longer want, have to invest heavily for what users do want and are earning less from each customer than 3 years ago...substantially less.
I don't "pity" the telco's, but I do understand what is happening. They report to Wall Street first and their customers second (if not last), just like any other utility company. Look at the taxes you pay each month....try and figure out those as well. Its a huge revenue stream for the government at the state and federal level and the FCC has become nothing more than an outlet for the IRS.
"Most" people won't switch. A few will. But for everyone that switches from Verizon to AT&T, an equal number likely defects the other way. Maybe not on the same day, but it all comes out in the wash.
What is needed is not another wireless telco with a new business model. What is needed is ubiquitous public connectivity. Look at how the data-enabled messaging apps like iMessage and Google Voice pretty much nullified the business model for texting plans. I just wonder how long before data-only users (text/Internet) become so dominant that all that remains is for some of the VOIP carriers to create their own competing standard to CDMA/GSM altogether?
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