SiliconAddict said:
What is this movie designed to be played back on?
If its designed for a portable video player, such as a PSP, or DVD player sized device then I can easily see file sizes being in the 100-200MB range with solid quality. Such a file size would easily be doable on a movie store as long as there is substantial distribution of the network.
Fortunately, Apple already has such a network. They currently use Akamai to allow services like iTMS and their movie trailer site to work at an acceptable speed under the stress of thousands of simultaneous downloads. The same system should work for larger videos as well.
SiliconAddict said:
However if we are talking something that is designed to be played back on a TV or, god help us all, a HDTV then we are talking a HUGE data file that needs to be downloaded.
Maybe, maybe not.
VCDs run at 1/4 SD television resolution using MPEG-1 for video and MPEG-2 for audio. Quality is equivalent to VHS. It has a data-rate about the same as uncompressed audio, so an 80 minute CD (700M) can hold 80 minutes of movie. (8.75M/min)
A similar spec,
SVCD is almost full SD resolution, using MPEG-2 VBR for encoding. Quality is not as good as DVD, but it's close. It can pack up to 60 minutes of video on a 700M CD. (11.67M/min)
H.264 compresses to about half the size of MPEG-2 at the same quality. (The sources I searched for show compression indicate that it yields sizes between 33% and 75% of MPEG-2.) I couldn't find a comparison against MPEG-1, so for this discussion, I'm also going to assume 50%, although it probably does better.
Given these assumptions, a VCD-quality stream should be about 4.3M/min, or 400M for a 90 minute movie. An SVCD-quality stream should be about 5.8M/min, or 525M for a 90 minute movie. This is doable for people with broadband.
HD content, of course, will require much more bandwidth. That's probably not going to be practical for several more years.
SiliconAddict said:
... as an impulse purchase site in the same design as iTMS? I just don't see it happening without some serious bandwidth happening.
I really think it depends on what people expect. SD content with quality similar to VCD/SVCD should end up with files around 400-600M for full-length features. This is large, but not impossible for people with broadband.
As a point of reference, Apple's Xcode developer tools are a 750M download. Over my DSL line, it takes a little less than two hours to download this. So we can estimate that a 400-600M movie would take 1-1.6 hours to download. This is certainly not as fast as people will like, but possibly fast enough to be acceptable.
I have friends with cable modems that get speeds 2-4 times faster than my DSL line. If that 400-600M movie can be downloaded in 15-30 minutes, I think most people will be fine with it.
SiliconAddict said:
Maybe in 10 years when fiber or high speed wireless starts hitting the streets or whenever Internet2 comes out. But for now? Anything other then portable movies on a smallish screen just won't work.
IMO, SD video can work now. HD video will need some time, but probably a lot less than 10 years.
IMO, the thing that will make or break video downloads will be DRM. People won't be satisfied with only being able to play the content on computers. And I doubt the copyright holders will allow most films to be burned to DVD.