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Losing market share wouldn't be a problem in a growing market if they still managed to both maintain a large enough user base and a growth of profits.
I'd invite you to read such article for example. It's almost one year old, though.
Since then, PC sales continued to slip (quarter and 4 trailing quarters views), while Mac sales market share maintained growth (4 trailing quarters view).
Now, it's not telling in detail about the particular case of ultrabook sales that probably are in better shape than desktop sales in comparison, for example.
But with the current tendency, I wonder how you expect Apple to lower prices and sell high-end products with lower margins, with at best same profits or possibly less as the market continues shrinking. How much more value is there to extract in that market?
Check my previous post, too.

I agree with you.

Losing market share is not a problem in a growing market unless for strategic reasons (as keeping market share high could place the company in a strategic position). However, losing market share in a shrinking market (as the current PC market) could be a disaster.

I am not implying Apple will sell products with lower margins. As I see it, Apple has been consistenly reducing the price of the MacBook Air. However, I don't know if Apple is reducing the margins of the sales (in order to keep the Air competitive) or if the the manufacturing costs are down and Apple managed to keep the margins.

My assumption is that the new MacBook Air will have an unibody aluminum chassis and a 12-inch display with a 2304x1440 resolution. Perhaps it does, perhaps it does not. I assume this because in my mind this is the most likely scenario given the rumors I have been reading so far. People may disagree on whether these assumptions are correct or not (particularly the retina display or the resolution I mentioned), but I am not discussing them right now and I am just assuming they are correct just for the sake of discussing the price.

When Apple first released the 15-inch MacBook Pro with a retina display back in June 2012, this new machine carried a US$ 400 premium over the previous model (US$ 2,199 versus US$ 1,799 considering the lower end versions). There were two costly improvements to justify this price increase:

• Apple chose to put a retina display instead of the regular resolution. The resolution quadrupled, going from 1440x900 to 2880x1800. I remeber manufacturing costs were said to be US$ 50 more for each of these displays at the time (first half of 2012).

• Apple put an SSD instead of the HDD. SSDs are more expensive than HDDs and, back in 2012, they were even more expensive. Even today, in 2014, Apple charges an additional US$ 200-250 for putting a 256 GB SSD inside an iMac (instead of the 500 GB or 1 TB HDD, respectively) and an additional US$ 350 for putting a 256 GB SSD inside a 13-inch non-retina MacBook Pro (in exchange for the 500 GB HDD).

So, the US$ 400 premium was justified by these two improvements. I also remember that, in March 2012, just a few months earlier, Apple released the iPad with a retina display and charged no premium at all for adding the retina display. The iPad kept its base price at US$ 499 regardless of the addition of a screen with four times the resolution.

Now, we are (or at least I am) talking about a 12-inch MacBook Air with a 2304x1440 resolution. I do not see here the same types of costly improvements that made the retina MacBook Pro more expensive than the non-retina model. Let me explain:

• The retina display of the Air, at least in my concept, is not going to have four times the resolution of the previous model. I am talking about 3.1x the resolution versus the current 11-inch version or 2.5x the resolution versus the 13-inch. So, the difference in resolution is not so much. In addition, manufacturing costs of retina displays are down from two years ago. If the price difference was US$ 50 from a 1440x900 to a 2880x1800 display in 2012, I can only imagine that the price difference is much less from a 1366x768/1440x900 to a 2304x1440 display in 2014. So, Apple would not need to charge a premium just for adding a retina display here and there would be virtually no difference in margins.

• The MacBook Air already has an SSD. So, Apple will not have to add an SSD to it. The SSD was probably the major cause of the price increase in the retina MacBook Pro two years ago. Apple still charges an US$ 350 premium to add a 256 GB SSD to a non-retina MacBook Pro, which means that this was a major cause of price increase. This cause does not exist here.

In addition to that, prices of SSDs and retina displays will only go down until the end of the year. So, these are the reasons why I think Apple can release a retina MacBook Air without raising the prices and still keep their margins.

Now, I am not saying Apple will do this. Apple can do it. But Apple can simply choose to raise its margins by charging a premium.
 
That's a lot of words to not even answer! You are summarizing or repeating the same things as in all your posts of the last 28 pages.

If Apple could have been first with a thin and fast 12" laptop with a retina display offering long battery life and good OS X performances, I think they'd have happily released it. Haswell wasn't able to let Apple do that, the HD 5000 is probably not capable enough.
I'd guess they can't use inferior iGPU than IRIS 5100 (rMBP13) or IRIS Pro 5200 (rMBP15) for HiDPI 2x and the graphic intensive OS X UI, even on the lower resolution of a 12" retina screen as you describe.
Broadwell and following intel lines of chips will sure change that, and even create new choices with now performant CPU with even lower TDP. No one doubt on that, but delays are becoming a problem.

Your discussion on price is probably too simplistic. The prices you see on the Apple store aren't production and average supply costs for a product to what are added desired margins.
But most would agree Apple should be capable to sell at around $1k a retina 12" notebook; that is not really in discussion. They likely should be able to make a retina notebook smaller and cheaper than the rBMP13, yet in the same class feature and performance wise.

You're missing the point and are not answering to my last posts. That's a too short-term strategy you're describing. They won't chase on low-priced laptop lands with an hypothetical rMBA.

What is the MacBook Air? It was at first a proof of concept and became the asymptote toward which the Apple notebook would tend to. Thin and light, yet performant, with a long battery life are the main identity factors.
Apple don't need two lines of ultra books for prosumers.
 
Just read through this thread. Some interesting speculation and thoughts.

If it is A8/ARM based, then I assume Boot Camp will not work on it. That pretty much rules it out for me (and many business users) who would want to be able to run Windows Excel and PPT. So I'd definitely prefer Broadwell and would be willing to pay accordingly. (This is the one part I want them to announce now, so I can just go buy a MBP if that is the case)

I expect both the 11 and 13 to be consolidated into two 12s, one retina, one without. No reason to keep minuscule differences in form factor.

More RAM please. 8GB should be the new minimum with a 16gb upgrade (especially since it is soldered).

802.11ac goes without saying, but frankly I'd love a SIM slot for data as well. This is an area that Apple has completely annoyed me, since tethering to a phone uses battery life (and is often slower than a dedicated connection). The iPad has cellular models available, so I think the laptops should move that way.

I'd love to see a flip-back keyboard/touchscreen form factor - but it isn't going to happen. Not unless they re-architect Mac OS X to be more touch friendly. I expect this is something 2 OS updates out or so.
 
That's a lot of words to not even answer! You are summarizing or repeating the same things as in all your posts of the last 28 pages.

And that is what these threads are all about, I guess.

If Apple could have been first with a thin and fast 12" laptop with a retina display offering long battery life and good OS X performances, I think they'd have happily released it. Haswell wasn't able to let Apple do that, the HD 5000 is probably not capable enough.
I'd guess they can't use inferior iGPU than IRIS 5100 (rMBP13) or IRIS Pro 5200 (rMBP15) for HiDPI 2x and the graphic intensive OS X UI, even on the lower resolution of a 12" retina screen as you describe.

I don't think it is the case. Apple released the 13-inch retina MacBook Pro in October 2012 with an HD 4000 card driving a 2560x1600 resolution. The HD 4000 was also able to drive the 2880x1800 resolution of the 15-inch MacBook Pro (released in June 2012), even though this laptop had a dedicated graphics card as well. The HD 5000, being more powerful than the HD 4000, can support a retina display in the forthcoming 12-inch Air, especially if this laptop comes with a 2304x1440 resolution. However, it would support the retina display even if the resolution was 2880x1800.

Broadwell and following intel lines of chips will sure change that, and even create new choices with now performant CPU with even lower TDP. No one doubt on that, but delays are becoming a problem.

Yes, there are reports of new delays in the Broadwell line-up. Chips are supposed to arrive H1 2015.

Your discussion on price is probably too simplistic. The prices you see on the Apple store aren't production and average supply costs for a product to what are added desired margins.
But most would agree Apple should be capable to sell at around $1k a retina 12" notebook; that is not really in discussion. They likely should be able to make a retina notebook smaller and cheaper than the rBMP13, yet in the same class feature and performance wise.

There are several factors that count in determining the price of the laptop. I basically took into consideration that the additional costs of production are lower than they were in 2012 and that the supply is higher for similarly built laptops. This should drive the price down, but other factors should definitely be counted in.

You're missing the point and are not answering to my last posts. That's a too short-term strategy you're describing. They won't chase on low-priced laptop lands with an hypothetical rMBA.

Why shouldn't they?

What is the MacBook Air? It was at first a proof of concept and became the asymptote toward which the Apple notebook would tend to. Thin and light, yet performant, with a long battery life are the main identity factors.
Apple don't need two lines of ultra books for prosumers.

No, they don't. The MacBook Air is the thin-and-light one. Different audiences. But it will likely put a retina display on it anyway, even not being a prosumer product.
 
Just read through this thread. Some interesting speculation and thoughts.

If it is A8/ARM based, then I assume Boot Camp will not work on it. That pretty much rules it out for me (and many business users) who would want to be able to run Windows Excel and PPT. So I'd definitely prefer Broadwell and would be willing to pay accordingly. (This is the one part I want them to announce now, so I can just go buy a MBP if that is the case)

For me too. An ARM MacBook Air would be a no-go for me. Perhaps some users may like it. However, I suppose it would not make business sense for Apple to release an ARM MacBook Air at this point.

I expect both the 11 and 13 to be consolidated into two 12s, one retina, one without. No reason to keep minuscule differences in form factor.

I expect both models to be consolidated as one 12-inch retina model. And the non-retina models to be discontinued over time. But I see that a retina model is something disputed. Some users do not want a retina model and would prefer a cheaper model or something with better battery life. I suppose Apple will choose to go the retina way but that's just me.

More RAM please. 8GB should be the new minimum with a 16gb upgrade (especially since it is soldered).

As much as you may be right, I think Apple will still opt for 4/8 GB, as this is the current standard of 13-inch MacBook Pros and Apple would choose to do something similar.

802.11ac goes without saying, but frankly I'd love a SIM slot for data as well. This is an area that Apple has completely annoyed me, since tethering to a phone uses battery life (and is often slower than a dedicated connection). The iPad has cellular models available, so I think the laptops should move that way.

This would be great. However, I don't know if Apple will do that.

I'd love to see a flip-back keyboard/touchscreen form factor - but it isn't going to happen. Not unless they re-architect Mac OS X to be more touch friendly. I expect this is something 2 OS updates out or so.

Yes, me too. However, I fail to see Apple implementing this. I hope I am wrong.
 
I don't think it is the case. Apple released the 13-inch retina MacBook Pro in October 2012 with an HD 4000 card driving a 2560x1600 resolution. The HD 4000 was also able to drive the 2880x1800 resolution of the 15-inch MacBook Pro (released in June 2012), even though this laptop had a dedicated graphics card as well. The HD 5000, being more powerful than the HD 4000, can support a retina display in the forthcoming 12-inch Air, especially if this laptop comes with a 2304x1440 resolution. However, it would support the retina display even if the resolution was 2880x1800.
You can't compare with the rMBP13 or the rMBP15, that's not at all the same thermal and power constraints as with a MBA.
The HD5000 is limited due to thermal and power constraints. And the UI will also depend on single-thread CPU performances, and there again you're limited. The MBA is currently in a tight balance.
With Broadwell, with the new 14nm process, you can expect progression on both CPU and GPU front, gaining room to lower thermal impact, with probably same GPU not throtling so fast, and single-thread CPU performances better on the low, and available longer on the high.
Not even talking about battery life, I think the loss of performances with a retina 12" screen in HiDPI 2x on Haswell wouldn't be really bearable in the state of OS X. It would be easy to test, if OS X allow you to run for example a 2560x1440 external screen in HiDPI 2x on a MBA with HD5000.

The MacBook Air is the thin-and-light one. Different audiences. But it will likely put a retina display on it anyway, even not being a prosumer product.
The product you describe looks to me more like a smaller rMBP added to the current line than a rMBA. How different to a rMBP12 would be your hypothetical rMBA12?
What's the point, marketing-wise, to maintain the differentiation if your goal is to end up with 3 models 12", 13" and 15", once cost reduction allow you to ditch non-retina models? Simply call them "the new Macbook".

Now, it would be another story if Apple went with even lower TDP intel chips, the differentiation could be maintained. But I then doubt, even with Broadwell, that you could build a performant OS X laptop with retina screen, even more thin and light than now.

I'd love a SIM slot for data as well. This is an area that Apple has completely annoyed me, since tethering to a phone uses battery life (and is often slower than a dedicated connection). The iPad has cellular models available, so I think the laptops should move that way.
This would be great. However, I don't know if Apple will do that.

I'd love to see a flip-back keyboard/touchscreen form factor - but it isn't going to happen. Not unless they re-architect Mac OS X to be more touch friendly. I expect this is something 2 OS updates out or so.
Yes, me too. However, I fail to see Apple implementing this. I hope I am wrong.
Do you guys realize Apple already has an OS built around mobility and touch interaction, it's called iOS.
What would you do once OS X would become touch friendly? no app available would support it. Haven't you learnt all that from the last 15 years of failure in Windows tablet land?
 
So, what's the consensus? Will a rMBA come out this year, or will it be delayed with Broadwell?
 
You can't compare with the rMBP13 or the rMBP15, that's not at all the same thermal and power constraints as with a MBA.
The HD5000 is limited due to thermal and power constraints. And the UI will also depend on single-thread CPU performances, and there again you're limited. The MBA is currently in a tight balance.
With Broadwell, with the new 14nm process, you can expect progression on both CPU and GPU front, gaining room to lower thermal impact, with probably same GPU not throtling so fast, and single-thread CPU performances better on the low, and available longer on the high.
Not even talking about battery life, I think the loss of performances with a retina 12" screen in HiDPI 2x on Haswell wouldn't be really bearable in the state of OS X. It would be easy to test, if OS X allow you to run for example a 2560x1440 external screen in HiDPI 2x on a MBA with HD5000.

I simply don't know. I haven't seen any tests to see whether the thermal and power constraints will play an important part on this, given that the HD5000 is more powerful than the HD4000 (which drove retina graphics on the 13" rMBP).

As for battery life, I think Apple may opt for IGZO displays or some similar low-consumption technology to help keeping battery usage low. In addition, Intel promised Broadwell will consume 30% less power than Haswell, and that should help keeping battery high. Apple managed to put a retina display on the iPad and on the iPhone. Now, the iPad with retina display is even thinner than the iPad 2, which didn't have one.

The product you describe looks to me more like a smaller rMBP added to the current line than a rMBA. How different to a rMBP12 would be your hypothetical rMBA12?
What's the point, marketing-wise, to maintain the differentiation if your goal is to end up with 3 models 12", 13" and 15", once cost reduction allow you to ditch non-retina models? Simply call them "the new Macbook".

A rMBA would be thinner, lighter and smaller than the Pro, and might keep the tapered design. Apple already blurred the line when it introduced thin and light MacBook Pros with SSDs and no optical drives. The difference was the retina display and the design of the laptop. Now, I don't think that adding a retina display would make them all the same.

They are still MacBooks, after all. And Apple has played with the names in the past, shortly after it released the unibody MacBook (the 13" model was called just "MacBook" before it became the 13" MacBook Pro in the second incarnation). I don't think this would be an issue.

Now, it would be another story if Apple went with even lower TDP intel chips, the differentiation could be maintained. But I then doubt, even with Broadwell, that you could build a performant OS X laptop with retina screen, even more thin and light than now.

I think Apple will not use a lower TDP chip, and I think Broadwell will be perfectly able to support a retina display.

Do you guys realize Apple already has an OS built around mobility and touch interaction, it's called iOS.
What would you do once OS X would become touch friendly? no app available would support it. Haven't you learnt all that from the last 15 years of failure in Windows tablet land?

Yes. iOS is made for ARM devices, and does not support mouse interaction nor multi-tasking. In addition, it does not support apps designed for Intel processors. I don't think OS X will ever become touch-friendly, or if it does it will be in the future.

----------

So, what's the consensus? Will a rMBA come out this year, or will it be delayed with Broadwell?

I don't think there is still a consensus on that. But I think it will be delayed.

----------

Delayed...I think

Agree.
 
So apparently Broadwell is now shipping. Certainly this must bode well for a fall Macbook Air refresh?
 

This is surprising news for me. However, they are vague. I still don't know which processors are being shipped (standard voltage? low voltage? ultra-low voltage? dual or quad core?), nor when they will arrive in personal computers.
 
No I just read on Macworld that Intel is shipping processors macbook air retina, but even then, it seems to say by the time **** is ready it's close to Christmas, but that's macworlds guess, if they are shipping them now shouldn't it be ready for October or something? I mean the retina macbook air?

macworld.co.uk/news/mac/new-macbook-air-release-date-rumors-3420655/
 
No I just read on Macworld that Intel is shipping processors macbook air retina, but even then, it seems to say by the time **** is ready it's close to Christmas, but that's macworlds guess, if they are shipping them now shouldn't it be ready for October or something? I mean the retina macbook air?

macworld.co.uk/news/mac/new-macbook-air-release-date-rumors-3420655/

According to the latest rumors here, the new Air will only be launched in late 2014 or early 2015 due to Intel delaying shipping of Broadwell processors.
 
Same article also suggests that the current MBA design will get an upgrade…

Though the 12-inch MacBook is delayed, a separate report from Economic Daily News [Google Translate], suggests new 11 and 13-inch MacBook Air models are set to enter production next month with new processors, chassis, screen, and other components.
 
According to the latest rumors here, the new Air will only be launched in late 2014 or early 2015 due to Intel delaying shipping of Broadwell processors.

Is this Broadwell delay caused by a production or a design problem? Does this mean that the rMBA could suffer from cpu problems because of this?
Of what I understand is Broadwell much like Haswell. Tick/ tock or whatever.
Has there been equal trouble with Haswell? Would it be wise to wait for Skylake which would be a new design (tick?). It's said that Skylake is not affected by the Broadwell delay and could be released just a few months after Broadwell.
 
Is this Broadwell delay caused by a production or a design problem? Does this mean that the rMBA could suffer from cpu problems because of this?
Of what I understand is Broadwell much like Haswell. Tick/ tock or whatever.
Has there been equal trouble with Haswell? Would it be wise to wait for Skylake which would be a new design (tick?). It's said that Skylake is not affected by the Broadwell delay and could be released just a few months after Broadwell.

Intel had some problems with the 14nm process used in Broadwell, but I don't think they disclosed exactly what the problem is. Anyway, Intel chips are always delayed because Intel has an aggressive schedule for releasing them. I don't remember the last time an Intel chip was not delayed.

This has nothing to do with CPU problems. Intel may have run into production problems, or may have detected some problem and fixed it before the chip is released to the mass market. Broadwell will probably not have problems, but who knows?

Broadwell uses the same architecture of Haswell, but it is manufactured with a 14nm process instead of the 22nm used in Haswell. That allows for more efficient chips. According to Intel, Broadwell will be 30% more energy-efficient than Haswell (and that means more battery life).

Skylake will be a new architecture, much like Haswell was as well. Skylake will use the same 14nm manufacturing process of Broadwell. I don't know which features will Skylake have, and Intel is probably avoiding to talk about it right now to focus on Haswell/Broadwell.

It is being said that Skylake release will not be affected by the Broadwell delay, and I guess it is partially true. These are the reasons why:

1. Skylake uses the same 14nm process as Broadwell, and, if the delay is caused by issues with the 14nm process, then it might affect Skylake as well (however, I don't think this is the case, because Intel still has one year to solve this issue before Skylake is released).

2. Intel may delay the release of Skylake on purpose (even if there are no production issues at all) so Broadwell has a longer life. Although Intel could release Skylake before, it may choose to launch it on a later date in order for Broadwell to keep the regular 1 year cycle. Intel has done this before, and it may be the case again.

I don't think it would be wise to wait for Skylake, as I don't even know what features it will bring. Skylake may be released only in 2016, depending on how Intel's schedule will be affected. If you need a new laptop, then you will not want to wait one year and a half to get something which features you are not even aware of.

----------

Same article also suggests that the current MBA design will get an upgrade…

Yes. I found this part confusing. Did you read the source of this rumor?
 
anyone think the chances of the rumored 12" MBA showing up by October have been significantly upgraded due the recent Intel Broadwell announcement?
 
It seems unlikely a Core M Broadwell-Y chip could drive a retina screen on OS X, or at least, we didn't really learn really much more to think otherwise.

It all depends on what are Apple's plans of course; I see at least two eventualities:

either they want to build even more thin and light OS X ultrabooks MBAs with no retina screen and will use Core M that might be performing good enough for a good OS X experience (and, while the MBP line could still gain in performances while maybe being able to shave off 1 or 2 mm in thickness and some more grams, the two very different lines of Apple notebooks could coexist with just as now a choice to make between battery life and thinness or performances),

or Core M / Y-series chips are still not in Apple's paper, and their goal is to produce a 12" OS X notebook with a retina screen, and then have to use stronger chips to make what would look like a rMBP12 with low-power U-series chips we have no news about but 1 month from now intel could deliver more infos.

Anyway, availability should be the holiday season for the Core M only, so that looks more like a late-november / early december availability for anything Core M-based.
 
It seems unlikely a Core M Broadwell-Y chip could drive a retina screen on OS X, or at least, we didn't really learn really much more to think otherwise.

It all depends on what are Apple's plans of course; I see at least two eventualities:

either they want to build even more thin and light OS X ultrabooks MBAs with no retina screen and will use Core M that might be performing good enough for a good OS X experience (and, while the MBP line could still gain in performances while maybe being able to shave off 1 or 2 mm in thickness and some more grams, the two very different lines of Apple notebooks could coexist with just as now a choice to make between battery life and thinness or performances),

or Core M / Y-series chips are still not in Apple's paper, and their goal is to produce a 12" OS X notebook with a retina screen, and then have to use stronger chips to make what would look like a rMBP12 with low-power U-series chips we have no news about but 1 month from now intel could deliver more infos.

Anyway, availability should be the holiday season for the Core M only, so that looks more like a late-november / early december availability for anything Core M-based.

I don't think Apple will use Core-Y in the new MacBook Airs, even if they can drive retina screens (which I think they could). Even the Surface Pro 3 uses Haswell U series, and Broadwell shall be even more battery efficient.
 
Basing on? If it could, why wouldn't Apple then use them for their lower-end line of ultra-light laptops?
Btw, the Surface Pro 3 base model use a Core i3-4020Y.


Yes, you are right, the Surface 3 uses an Y-class processor. And it drives a 2160x1440 screen. I think the Broadwell-Y could support a resolution of 2304x1440 on the Air, which is what the only rumors said it would have. An aspect ratio of 1440x900 would mean the video card would have to handle a 2880x1800 screen, and I think any Broadwell video card could do that.
 
Yes, you are right, the Surface 3 uses an Y-class processor. And it drives a 2160x1440 screen. I think the Broadwell-Y could support a resolution of 2304x1440 on the Air, which is what the only rumors said it would have.
I don't think Windows 8.1 is comparable to OS X.
intel says Core M chips will support natively "4K and UHD resolutions".

So, now you support the redesigned MBA will be Core M equipped and with a retina screen? I try to foliow you
 
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