got a refurbished in the white box. NOT HAPPY. THEY fubared my brand NEW watch and send me a REFURBISHED. APPLE SUX!
I found this website to be helpful. It only mentions iPhones in the article, but I believe it can be applied to Apple Watch as well. At least this this way you can know for sure.
http://osxdaily.com/2018/01/27/determine-iphone-new-refurbished-replaced/