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We will never have a pro chip mac mini
- Thread starter Worlrl
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The M1 mini has a fan too, it just always sits at base RPM (1700) and is inaudible.
I’ve only gotten the M1 Mini fan to speed up to 2200 rpm when torturing it slamming both cpu and gpu at the same time for a longer period and the fan was still inaudible (Max rpm is 4500 for that fan).
Is that spec for the M1 Mini? If so, I'm wondering if the M2 Pro Mini will be louder. Though the difference in TDP at idle between the processors shouldn't be much, thus still leaving it quieter than the Studio.
...on the other hand, the M2 Pro Mini certainly has a much higher TDP than the M1 Mini under load, so there we might see some significant increases in fan noise vs. the M1 Mini.
The 5dBA I quoted is from the M2 Mini Tech Specs page. It was the same for the M1 Mini. It does say in the footnotes for the M2 Minis that "Acoustics may vary by configuration." It's certainly possible that the M2 Pro Mini will be a bit of a screamer at high loads.
I'm hoping that the reviews touch on this.
Don't feel bad. Odds are the Mac mini form factor was kept from the Intel model so that there is space for the Pro chip.
Reason why the M1 Pro was not used in a Mac mini in the last 15 months is because of lack of supply of the chip or it is more profitable to keep it in the Macbook Pro for 15 months. When supply became plentiful then it was placed into the Mac mini.
It is like the iPad Pro getting the M2 chip. Reasons it was placed there before the Mac mini is as follows
- Better margins
- Higher demand
- Parts availability other than M2 chip
- Scheduling
So the Macs without the M2 family of chips are
- 2019 Mac Pro
- 2021 iMac 24-inch
- 2020 iMac 27-inch replacement (hopefully)
- 2022 Mac Studio
Edit: Added year model for clarity
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And the Mac Studio.
I’m going to guess, by the time we get to WWDC in June, we will see M2x upgrades of the iMac and the Mac Studio and we will see an announcement of what the Mac Pro will be thought we may not see it ship yet.
Mac Studio was updated in 2022 so I would not be surprised if the iMac or even the Mac Pro will get updated ahead of it.
My assumption is based on FIFO.
Ahead of the Mac Studio I see these iPads & AirPods seeing updates
- 2021 iPad mini to a A16 Bionic chip
- 2022 iPad Air to a M2 chip
- 2022 iPhone SE to a A16 Bionic (maybe)
- 2020 AirPods Max
- 2021 AirPods
I am somewhat disappointed that the M2, M2 Pro & M2 Max are 4nm chips and not 3nm chips. So odds are the 2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max with a A16 Bionic chip that I will be getting will be using a 3nm chip.
It blows my mind that the device that has the most raw computational that I use day to day is my iPhone that can make do with 5-12W without discharging while plugged in and not my
- 2012 iMac 27"
- 2018 iPad Pro 11"
- 2018 Apple Watch Series 3
- 2019 Macbook Pro 16"
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While the Mac Studio isn’t even a year old, yet, I think they will still do a SOC upgrade this spring. It currently uses the M1 Ultra as one of its chip options and an M2 version of that is expected in the Mac Pro which is also likely to be announced this spring or by June. If they upgrade the iMac and Mac Studio, they can get all the machines on the M2 generation. I could imagine a press release just before WWDC where they announce M2x upgrades of the iMac and Studio followed by a Mac Pro reveal at WWDC.
Macbook Pro 14/16 came out
- Oct 2021 for M1 Pro/Max
- Jan 2023 for M2 Pro/Max
Mac Studio came out in Mar 2022
That's 5 months apart?
A 2023 Mac Studio M2 Max/Ultra would be out by WWDC 2023 in June.
Hopefully a iMac 27-inch replacement will be out by WWDC 2023. Ideally with Target Display Mode included so people like me can use its display if we decide to upgrade it with a future year 2027-2033 Mac mini/Mac Studio
As we knew all along. Of course Apple was going to put an Mx Pro in some desktop. Now we're waiting if it also comes in the base model large iMac and for how much?
Dubious premise that the 5 months is some dogma driven rigid gap. At the M1 Max introduction Apple photoshopped out the UltraFusion connector out of the Max die photo. But at the Mac Studio introduction they revealed the real dependancy.
The M2 Max (and M2 Pro) production for the MPB 14"/16" (and M2 Pro Mini ) will consume wafers that could diminish the ability to create a M2 Ultra. If Apple can't make enough M2 Max's to put into systems they highly likely are not going to start "double Max die" package production. There is no 'extra' dies lying around with nothing to do.
For the M2 Pro and Max it is a bit worse because the dies for both usages have bloated bigger than the predecessors. (still stuck on N5P so this increase GPU core count and much better NPU and video accelerator aggregate performance increase is primarily just coming out of bigger and slightly more expensive dies). In short, Apple gets fewer dies out ever wafer processed on M2 than they did for M1.
Part of that 5 month gap was letting the demand for the M1 Pro/Max die down far enough to start to collect enough 'extra' Max dies to make Ultras. ( Apple extremely likely wasn't going to release Mac Studio with zero M1 Ultra's available. The size of the system is basically driven by the Ultra. That is one of the major selling points. Even if not the majority of units sold. )
If there is just moderate demand for the M2 Pro Mini and the 14/16 updates then it could possibly be shorter. If the demand is just as high as before (and the Mini's are throw on top to make it 'worse' ) then it could easily be longer.
When Apple did the side-by-side photo of M1 Max and M2 Max there was no UltraFusion connector on either. If the Ultra is using another 'building block' die than the laptop M2 Max then that is a variable also. If it a more effective chiplet the CPU+GPU+NPU+cache+memory controller die could be a bit smaller than the Max ( but also another chiplet(s) for I/O ) and more packaging to do.
The 'double Max' die is likely to have 'busted' the 1x reticle limit of the InFO-LSI packaging that was used for the M1 Ultra. There is a more expensive CoWoS-LSI option to go for in a > 1x reticle context , but have to ramp that up too ( would have needed that anyway for '4 chiplet' solution anyway).
It would not be surprising to see a Mac Studio update slide out into October (along with whatever Apple is doing with the Mac Pro ... which likely will also use a M2 Ultra or whatever Mx Ultra-class SoC they both will use. ).
P.S. usually there is a notion that Apple is big they can just order as much TSMC N5 family as they want. Probably much less true now that Nvidia , Qualcomm , Mediatek , and AMD have all piled into N5 family production now. There is more N5 capacity at TSMC but also more customers.
Is there a M2 Ultra? Because the M2 Max bloated into a bigger die, Apple could to tossed all the UltraFusion connector space at the "more stuff" they were having problems putting onto the die. No connector ... could be no Ultra. (done the same way).
Unless Apple changed their chiplet design approach, the even more chunky M2 Max die gets more on the fringe of being a good chiplet. If the M2 max spun out of control because "had to" stay on N5P for some reason... Apple could just skip the Ultra for M2. Even more so if that is an unexpectant stay. No good reason why Apple 'has to' do a full 100% line-up refresh on every M-series generation.
Given the slew of more than decent new monitors that got announced at CES 2023 , I wouldn't bet on a new 27" iMac coming any time soon. M2 Mini , M2 Pro Mini , M1 Max/Ultra Mac Studio all offer substantive uplift from the old iMac 27" Intel models.
The bundled M2 Pro Mini or Mac Studio + Studio Display price is a higher average selling price point than the iMac 27" was. Apple isn't selling those screens to everyone, but they don't have too.
The iMac 24" is dragging. Maybe it will get updated when two years old. That isn't a high priority device.
There is no good reason to attach the 24" or a possible 27" model to WWDC 2023.
Apple has a "100% Target Display Mode iMac 27" " ... it is called Studio Display. Target Display mode is not coming back. It is a quirk that worked OK when the output port was just DisplayPort. With Thunderbolt 4 is makes about zero sense. With the TB4 controllers actually built into the Apple M-series SoCs. it makes even less sense. (Those are even less 'design for peripherals' style TB controllers. Some of the discrete Intel TB controllers were multiple use host or peripheral ).
If Apple was willing to put a "just DisplayPort" connector on the iMac maybe they could bring it back (with the internal hoops have to jump through to make that work), but that is not likely at all. Just about as unlikely as them putting multiple video input ports on their monitor docking stations.
The cadence of product refresh is predicated by supply chain so I look at what I wrote as what is "likely" rather than what "will be" reality.
So my outlook on this would be any M3 chip variation will be a 2023 part within a year 2023 time frame.
It may be delayed if war broke out over Taiwan. Will that impact timelines?
This does not mean there would not be a possibility of M3 chip destined for a MacBook Air to be released by December 2022 but odds are the bulk of that production run can be purchased by you or me by January 2023.
This is similar to the late 2012 iMac being released by October 2012 but bulk of supply was available to me by January 2013.
3nm production is a limited resource that Apple will leverage onto their most important hardware... the iPhone.
When spare manufacturing capacity becomes available as iPhone demand has been largely satiated then they will make M3 chips for the MacBook Air. That laptop is the highest volume Mac.
News of TSMC starting 3nm chip production last December 2022 may be as symbolic to satisfy shareholders as a production line being able to output a platter every so often. Not enough to fulfil worldwide commercial quantity.
iMac 27-inch replacement does not mean another iMac 27-inch. Like say the replacement of the iMac 21.5-inch 4K display was a iMac 24-inch 4.5K display. Macrumors speculated it to be 32-inch. I'd be ecstatic if the mid 2023 iMac I'd buy has a 32-inch 6K display for under $3k.
If ever the iMac 24-inch M1 had a Target Display Mode via USB 4 it may not have been marketed until now because M1 to M2 upgrade isn't compelling feature to have.
Waiting to say year 2025 when the model becomes 4 years old, the time frame in which Apple found to be the typical replacement cycle, may provide incentive for buyers to grab themselves a 2025 Mac mini M3 2nm to "upgrade" their old 2021 iMac M1 5nm. That 2025 Mac mini M3 2nm would have more raw performance than the top end 2022 M1 Ultra largely attributed to a 2nm die shrink that is schedueld to start in the year 2024.
Target Display Mode was made possible through Thunderbolt 2 ports of the 2011-2014 iMac that used the physical miniDisplay port form factor.
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