'Weak Demand' for VR and AR Causing Concerns for Companies Investing in the Technology

[Mr. Dee]

Xerox started the GUI fire. And it was getting out, even if Apple had never seen and used it. Xerox developers left and spread it to many places. GEM was an example.

There is a difference between research/experiment and commercializing a technology. Steve Jobs went there and got access to the GUI after giving Xerox access to stock options. Xerox wasn't going to give that to just anybody, including Gem. When Steve got that access and that was as a result of close connections through Jeff Raskins, Apple was already a billion dollar company. Xerox execs also didn't care about the GUI, it was just there as a research project; all they cared about was selling printers.

Steve Jobs said, they didn't even know the gold mine they were sitting on. Even the assistant who did the demo saw how foolish Xerox was at the time. It was until IBM introduced the PC and the Apple I and LISA, Xerox experimented with commercialization. Even then, the target market was companies and universities, of which only 20,000 were sold. You can sure bet, the cost was a factor which was in the ten's of thousands.

Apple started work on the GUI as far back as '79, Microsoft early '81. By the time Apple released the Macintosh in 1984, Apple was just announcing and starting serious work on Windows (Interface Manager). Apple would have at least a 5 year head start, while GEM wouldn't since it would be more of response to what Apple tried with Apple LISA although they came out a year later after System 1.

 

[kdarling]

There is a difference between research/experiment and commercializing a technology.

Xerox thought otherwise. As noted in a 1989 NY Times article when Xerox sued Apple for theft:

"Xerox's suit, which was filed in Federal District Court, charges Apple with copyright misrepresentation and seeks more than $150 million in royalties and damages.

"Xerox contends that the Lisa and Macintosh software stems from work originally done by Xerox scientists and that it was used by Apple without permission."

Steve Jobs said, they didn't even know the gold mine they were sitting on. Even the assistant who did the demo saw how foolish Xerox was at the time.

You mean the Xerox developer/manager whom Jobs specifically asked to give the big demonstration, Adele Goldberg, who famously warned Xerox management that Apple was going to steal their work.

Her boss, Robert Taylor, was out of town at the time, but later said if he'd been there, he would've told Jobs to "get out".

Apple started work on the GUI as far back as '79, Microsoft early '81.

We know from historical photos and interviews what Apple was working on before they went to Xerox... a soft key and mouse driven command interface. No windows. No desktop or icons. Immediately after their late 1979 Xerox visit, they began a windowing GUI instead.

The reason I say it doesn't matter in the end, though, is because the whole computer world knew about the GUI. BYTE magazine (I bought and read all the issues back then) even had a large article about it:

The LISA wasn't released until another year and a half later, in 1983. The Mac a year after that.

 

[Pilgrim1099]

Xerox thought otherwise. As noted in a 1989 NY Times article when Xerox sued Apple for theft:

"Xerox's suit, which was filed in Federal District Court, charges Apple with copyright misrepresentation and seeks more than $150 million in royalties and damages.

"Xerox contends that the Lisa and Macintosh software stems from work originally done by Xerox scientists and that it was used by Apple without permission."



You mean the Xerox developer/manager whom Jobs specifically asked to give the big demonstration, Adele Goldberg, who famously warned Xerox management that Apple was going to steal their work.

Her boss, Robert Taylor, was out of town at the time, but later said if he'd been there, he would've told Jobs to "get out".



We know from historical photos and interviews what Apple was working on before they went to Xerox... a soft key and mouse driven command interface. No windows. No desktop or icons. Immediately after their late 1979 Xerox visit, they began a windowing GUI instead.

View attachment 676660

The reason I say it doesn't matter in the end, though, is because the whole computer world knew about the GUI. BYTE magazine (I bought and read all the early issues) even had a large article about it:

View attachment 676661

The LISA wasn't released until another year and a half later, in 1983. The Mac a year after that.

Such fascinating anecdotes of early 80s history . In fact, at the time the Lisa came out, I had the SEARS Atari 2600 and was hugely addicted to the Dragon's Lair arcade game ( I remember the famous 1984 commercial quite well but never got the Mac until the early 1990s). Anything exotic in the arcades got my attention. And then, of course, I got my first computer which was the Commodore Vic-20 a year later and then C-128. At the time, software programmers had to be real creative to work around the limitations of the hardware.

And my god, did they pull it off with such classics coming from Electronic Arts ( the old crew was awesome ) cranking out beautiful titles like Skyfox, Seven Cities of Gold, and such. Or the brilliance of Maniac Mansion a few years later by Lucasfilm Games. Even the early Scott Adams text adventure games on cartridge for the Vic-20s were something else.

But what WAS interesting was that Commodore came out with a GUI OS called GEOS for the C-128 which I had and used it many times for my school projects. It wasn't perfect but it was close to having a Mac. God, such memories.

Hell, I could've been that character in Ready Player One.
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If you've ever had the chance to try TiltBrush on the HTC Vive, you'll probably agree that VR is pretty transformative. It's certainly the best experience I've had in VR, and Ive been lucky enough to try a number of them. It's also not ready for mass consumers. VR does not have a "killer app". It has a number of impediments including price, the amount of space required for a good experience (about 4x4 feet), and the bulkiness of the headsets. I'm not a gamer, so for me, the social angle is more exciting. Being able to meet far away friends in any location we can dream up. I'm also kind of intrigued by fully customizing my own avatar and meeting strangers in virtual worlds — 2nd Life taken to the extreme. I could be anything I wanted, from a little bit taller to a knight to a giant to a bird. For all its setbacks, an actual good VR experience is extremely compelling.

I think it was VC Marc Andreesen who said "the world is divided between those who think VR is a waste of time and those who have tried it". There's a threshold of immersion reached when you see your hands and there's no lag. It changes your reference point from "I'm controlling a game camera with my head" to "oh... this is the holodeck from Star Trek".

A couple other missing pieces: a very good vrOS so you're not switching between applications and wearing it, the social angle I mentioned, a retail presence so people can actually try it out somewhere, apps that are better than tech demos (I actually think serialized content would be good). And again, the bulkiness.

While AR most certainly has a brighter future, it is even further away. The HoloLens demos on YouTube deceptively well. The AR image is actually a tiny postage stamp in the middle of an otherwise useless glass face mask.

All of these companies are trying to beat Apple to the punch. They all want to be the next iPhone of whatever is after mobile and in doing so, they've done the technology a massive disservice. This stuff would have been ready in 3 years, but now the burned public won't give it a chance for another 8. No one has innovated because the tech wasn't ready. They've faked innovation by showing lab work.

They're right to fear Apple. Reducing bulk, hardware in general, retail presence, building a dedicated OS, media partnerships, a developer network. Apple was right not to pull the trigger early on this, but they're uniquely positioned to succeed with it. Hopefully they can salvage some pretty awesome potential. It really could be the next big thing. Just needs a couple more years to mature on the tech side. Everyone needs some patience.

As an artist myself, I really want to try Tilt Brush badly. In fact, having grown up watching TRON as a kid, VR is a perfect medium for such an alternate world to interact within for that franchise as an MMORG or something like Second Life. It's perfectly meta.
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It was set up by Intel. I was dealing with a GTX 1080 and some 12 core unreleased Xeon processor. It ran pretty smoothly, the resolution was just terrible.

We did have a headset on, though it was separate from the headset itself.

That's interesting to learn this. If it's the actual resolution, it might be the graphics card itself? Unless it was the low sampling from the software port done badly?

 

[Mr. Dee]

Xerox thought otherwise. As noted in a 1989 NY Times article when Xerox sued Apple for theft:

"Xerox's suit, which was filed in Federal District Court, charges Apple with copyright misrepresentation and seeks more than $150 million in royalties and damages.

"Xerox contends that the Lisa and Macintosh software stems from work originally done by Xerox scientists and that it was used by Apple without permission."



You mean the Xerox developer/manager whom Jobs specifically asked to give the big demonstration, Adele Goldberg, who famously warned Xerox management that Apple was going to steal their work.

Her boss, Robert Taylor, was out of town at the time, but later said if he'd been there, he would've told Jobs to "get out".



We know from historical photos and interviews what Apple was working on before they went to Xerox... a soft key and mouse driven command interface. No windows. No desktop or icons. Immediately after their late 1979 Xerox visit, they began a windowing GUI instead.

View attachment 676660

The reason I say it doesn't matter in the end, though, is because the whole computer world knew about the GUI. BYTE magazine (I bought and read all the early issues) even had a large article about it:

View attachment 676661

The LISA wasn't released until another year and a half later, in 1983. The Mac a year after that.

Of course, but the whole world knew about MP3 players, Smartphones and Tablets before Apple too.

 

[Ishayu]

That's interesting to learn this. If it's the actual resolution, it might be the graphics card itself? Unless it was the low sampling from the software port done badly?

No, the resolution of VR goggles is 1080x1200 per eye at best.

 

[Pilgrim1099]

No, the resolution of VR goggles is 1080x1200 per eye at best.

I see. So by now, the google resolution may have been bumped up in the new model iteration compared to the last one? I think the model I used had a higher res count. Possibly.

 

[rockyromero]

No, the resolution of VR goggles is 1080x1200 per eye at best.

I read that the Airpods are the second wearable after the AW.

Next would be Apple's AR goggles or AR eye contacts.

After that, thought communications to control IOT home devices, or control bots in the body.

All wirelessly.

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[rockyromero]

I suppose it is very anti social. I know I feel shut out when my husband puts on his noise cancellation headphones and can't hear a word I say. Which is stupid, because everyone deserves their space and it's not as if I speak that much anyway or would have anything to say to him if he were listening to the stereo. But I find myself frustrated I can't hear what music he's hearing, as I would if he were listening to the stereo. I get so ridiculously curious. He also closes his eyes so he can't see me at all in addition to not hearing me.

This is insightful.

It's the same experience that I have with my teenage grandchildren.

I'm only connecting with them when we get out of their tech environment.

It would be frustrating to attempt to pull them away from their TV, PC and devices daily.

Recently, we started making paper airplanes & flying them in the living room. It was a hit. Later on, I bought a motor that attaches. I even brought that to a family gathering for thanksgiving. I had not flown paper airplanes inside or outside for a very long time.

I call this RR.

Real Reality.

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