I highly doubt that icon is the new iphone. Apple wouldn't let that slip through their fingers. It would only be in the SDK if it was restricted to the folks enrolled in the paid developers program, if at all. 98% of Apple Inc. has no idea what the iPhone looks like and there's just no way they would make that slip.
Anyway, I'm in the camp that the new phone is not going to deviate much from the first. The iPhone is an iconic device that is instantly recognized and is very symbolic of the direction Apple is heading in. They aren't going to make dramatic changes yet. Someone used the Nano as an example but I feel that was misguided. It was the 3rd gen, first of all, and the form changed because the device itself was radically changed- video. That was a bigger change to that form-factor than 3G or the rumored upgrades. It went from an audio device to one that played videos, something that simply wouldn't have worked in the original design.
Anything can happen of course, but I agree with the if it ain't broke don't fix it sentiment. Apple sticks with a design most of the time until it has to change it, either from dramatic changes in feature-sets, technology, or market factors. I dont think those requisites are being met and I think they aren't going to deviate much from the present design.
