What to Expect at Apple's 'Spring Forward' Media Event

[Rogifan]

Given Apple was moved away from allowing users to upgrade/service its laptop and desktop lines, it would be a radical turnaround for them to allow upgrades of a tiny watch.

They would prefer you buy a new watch every few years

But who says people are going to do that? We're finding out they're not doing that with iPads. And considering how much work Apple has put into the watch bands do you really think they expect those bands to become obsolete in a year or two? It could be Apple makes more money off 'servicing' the watch than expecting people to buy a new one every year or two. I'm not saying Apple would for sure do that. But no doubt they've had these conversations. Especially if the watch isn't something you'll pay off over time like most people do with their phones.

 

[Keirasplace]

So every year millions of people line up at the Apple Store to get their watch upgraded. Apple would have to hire a small country (which they can at the moment) just for the yearly upgrades. I hope you're right though, but I doubt anyone but the Edition buyers will get that kind of service.

Does it matter if millions go to the Apple store if Apple gets paid for it .
Great time to upsell ;-).

 

[Rogifan]

If Gruber is right again then Apple Watch is seriously overpriced for what it really is. Apple Watch has nothing other smart watches can't do other than ran out of battery way sooner than new Pebble. After few revisions we'll be seeing a watch with much better autonomy. When Apple hits 7 days of autonomy I'm buying.

So you've actually used the product? Tell us more about it then.

 

[Trapezoid]

What does that mean? You haven't seen pictures of the device? You haven't seen the device demonstrated?

You buy all your products based solely on pictures?

 

[iMacoo7]

I still wonder if we'll be surprised and the gold is cheaper than Gruber thinks, since it's not actually solid gold, but a mix of ceramic and gold. That to me seems like it would be cheaper. Here's what I would guess

Sport $349
Steel $549
Edition $1099

I definitely agree with your price points... I guess Gruber failed to read the article stating that the 18KT Gold was " Pure Gold" as he stated in his recent piece on the watches. Apple will make more money from the Bands then from the watches. I know would personally like a classy one for work and the sports band for working out. Mere hours before we all know what's what....

 

[BMcCoy]

I assumed the watch bands will still fit future models of the watch body..

Looking at the profile views, it's entirely possible for the watch body to be made thinner (R) (Registered trademark Apple), but maintain the size of the connections to the watch strap, so existing straps fit the new thinner model watch.

So I still predict a 2 year update - AppleWatch 2. Thinner, more sensors, and fits your existing strap.
No internal upgrading of Watch 1.. and no part exchange either.

 

[tresmith]

I wonder how scratch resistant these watches are.

I've never seen a watch made out of aluminum. Aluminum is a very soft and I wonder how it will hold up to wear and tear...especially since it's billed as the sport edition.

 

[BMcCoy]

I wonder how scratch resistant these watches are.

the body won't be.. the screen will be.

 

[Keirasplace]

I wonder how scratch resistant these watches are.

I've never seen a watch made out of aluminum. Aluminum is a very soft and I wonder how it will hold up to wear and tear...especially since it's billed as the sport edition.

Well, maybe it depends how your Iphone is faring. I never put anything protection on it and it fares very well. Some people though seemingly wreck them in weeks. The glass should be as durable as the latest Iphone's are.

 

[Aniseedvan]

Apple currently has two types of wireless ear buds that are very stylish and not bulky at all IMO:
http://store.apple.com/xc/product/MHBE2AM/A
http://store.apple.com/xc/product/MHDM2AM/A (this last one can be seen as bulky but it is the exact same size as its weird counterpart)

I've had Jaybird Bluebuds for nearly 2 years now. Not bulky and with some comply tips they fit even my tiny ears.

I'm looking forward to the event. Always like a bit of Apple marketing fluff Unless there's something to wow me, I'm waiting until there's an always on display. My Garmin Vivosmart can do the 'show display by raising your arm' and the number of times it displays when you're not raising your arm alongside the times it doesn't display when you do raise your arm means I've turned it off. It also made the battery life far worse from over a week's charge. Currently waiting patiently for my vivoactive preorder to take over from this and my fenix 1.

It'll be fun to see the apps provided. From the completely pointless (sending heartbeats) to something that will make it a USP for some. Notifications on my wrist are great; being able to interact with them is a logical next step, a la pebble, so what Apple comes up with as the step further will be interesting.

Over on the Garmin forums, someone has written code to open his garage door on his fenix 3. Saves him pulling out his phone whilst on his bike, so I can get that - simple interactions to help, but not take over using the phone.

 

[cambox]

The 5c fate awaits!

 

[KenAFSPC]

The Digital Crown paradigm is actually one of the most impressive conceits to reality - fingers on a tiny screen will cover what the heck you're lookin' at. They certainly *could* have stuck with what they had, but I think the solution devised will prove to me the correct one.

I'm not entirely sold on the digital crown. Turning a small dial requires some amount of dexterity. I imagine it will cause difficulties for those with older, arthritic fingers.

I think Samsung came up with a far more innovative alternative - a ring around the side of a circular watch that users turn clockwise or counter clockwise to perform the same function as the digital crown. The ring looks much, much easier to use than Apple's digital crown. The downside is that such a ring only works on a round watch.

 

[AnthonyHarris]

Apple being Apple, I'm sure they'll charge a premium cost, because they are premium products, but the $7500 for the gold edition seems extremely high. I doubt it will contain enough metal to justify that hefty price tag.

(I'm a jeweller, and most of the watch is tech, not gold)

I believe Gruber is way off on the pricing lineup. The Steel Apple Watch will likely be starting at $500, $150 more than the "Aluminium" one because of that relatively small price difference. Consider currently how there is a $100 difference between the 16GB and 64GB iPhone 6. People who can afford the extra would gladly do so since they think they are getting more for their money. Apple would apply this same logic here and try to get people to buy the shiny, more expensive one made with fancier materials. Also, the materials they are using has been shown to not cost that much more than aluminum and gorilla glass like in the Sport model. Third, they are expecting to sell mostly Sports and Steels to the general public with the Edition for the upper class. Speaking of the Edition, I bet on $4,499 for starting with the rubber strap. It's "affordable" to the rich without seeming overly high priced.
Also, there is no way Apple is going to charge extra between the 38mm and the 42mm like how Gruber believes. Why should mostly men have to pay more for a product that better fits their larger wrists? That and the difference in size is so negligible at roughly .15 inches. Further there was a recent report that Ahrendts is pushing retail to emphasize on additional band options. This is where the pricing hierarchy will be. Expect the rubbers to be the base model, leather for middle tier, Milanese loop, then finally the links since it appears on Apple's website to take the longest to manufacture. Perhaps they'll announce a 18K gold link bracelet that will push the Apple Watch Edition to the $7500 price point that Gruber is convinced of. I should be an Apple Analyst, seems pretty straightforward to get paid for guessing.

 

[heeloliver]

I seriously doubt that the sizes will have a price difference. These are meant to be fitment choices and encourage people to buy the bigger watch if they are comfortable wearing it. The gold watch will even be priced appropriately to cover both sizes at one price point.

So, my predictions, based on more time spent in the watch industry than with computers. My father was a watch repairman, I sat on his lap and watched him fix watches when I was a kid, and I've always been a fan and had a collection of timepieces.

Sport: $349 with a colorful sport band. Either aluminum color.
Watch: $499, but justified with the inclusion of a $80-$100 band option. So, essentially, it's not a significant change in price as the Sport + an upgraded band would be able the same. This watch just isn't available with the sport band out of the box so the price of admission is higher. Either steel color.
Edition: $7,999 in your choice of yellow or rose. Possibly not sold without an appointment, and frankly - hard to picture anyone picking it up at an Apple store. Maybe a partner jeweler will be announced.

Bands, cheapest to most expensive
Sport Band $50ish
Leather Loop $80ish
Classic Buckle $100ish
Modern Buckle (non-gold) $150ish
Link Bracelet $200ish
Milanese Loop (this is going to be pricier than you expect) $250ish, maybe $300ish.
Modern Buckle (yellow or rose gold) included with edition, not available seperately, replacements only available to owners of the watch at an undisclosed price.

I'm suspecting I'd be spending around $800 on launch day for a steel watch with something leather and a link or milanese bracelet especially because I'm fond of 'beads of rice' bracelets, which is echoed a bit in the Milanese loop design. I like to have a summer and winter strap or bracelet options for watches where changing it is practical.

That being said, I'm surprised no one has yet echoed the purpose of a multi-thousand dollar gold watch - so you can buy a watch for a few hundred and say 'this is the same watch people are paying x thousand for' - that watch existing in the product line makes your inexpensive model have more perceived value.

Having a 'cheap' version of a exclusive watch in most luxury brands would be a disaster - a platinum whatever on a bracelet for $50,000 would take a hit in status and sales if a steel 'version' that looked 90% the same at a discount. In this case, the purpose of building the gold watch is to actually legitimize the cost of the lower model and Apple doesn't care how many they will sell.

There's my guess - I'm excited to see how it all pans out.

Best guesses I've heard. Although I'd have to disagree with the statement that apple won't charge more for the bigger version. If that were true, most everyone would like to get the larger version because why not?

 

[ArmCortexA8]

I could easily make the same generalised complaints about your Tissot watch. Why pay so much money for the MotoGP edition when I can spend £5 for a digital watch that also tells me the time....

As I mentioned I prefer mechanical watches, as a true watch.

 

[Rogifan]

Best guesses I've heard. Although I'd have to disagree with the statement that apple won't charge more for the bigger version. If that were true, most everyone would like to get the larger version because why not?

Because if you have a smaller wrist the bigger watch will look silly.

 

[TallManNY]

Glad technology has reached the point where you are fine. Guess we can just stop here.

Longer battery is always going to be better.

Well the entire PC market, including Apple, can increase their battery life simply by including larger batteries in their laptops. They seem to be weighing the value of slimness and weight and cost compared to battery life.

I guess the current laptops are insufficient for the folks who compile code while on safari. But I can't really imagine being somewhere were I would jam on a laptop for 12 hours and also not have access to an outlet, with the sole exception being a really long flight. And personally, I'd also have an iPad in my bag in that scenario. So between the two devices, current technology will last.

More of anything is better. But I'd rather a retina screen for the Air, or make the laptop lighter for the Macbook Pro, over increased battery life for either. But the new CPUs should result in better battery life anyway. So I think you will be happy.

 

[Rogifan]

I'm not entirely sold on the digital crown. Turning a small dial requires some amount of dexterity. I imagine it will cause difficulties for those with older, arthritic figures.

I think Samsung came up with a far more innovative alternative - a ring around the side of a circular watch that users turn clockwise or counter clockwise to perform the same function as the digital crown. The ring looks much, much easier to use than Apple's digital crown. The downside is that such a ring only works on a round watch.

Where is this Samsung watch you speak of? I'd like to try it out.

 

[TallManNY]

I assumed the watch bands will still fit future models of the watch body..

Looking at the profile views, it's entirely possible for the watch body to be made thinner (R) (Registered trademark Apple), but maintain the size of the connections to the watch strap, so existing straps fit the new thinner model watch.

So I still predict a 2 year update - AppleWatch 2. Thinner, more sensors, and fits your existing strap.
No internal upgrading of Watch 1.. and no part exchange either.

When I look at the design, I can see how the current straps would fit in seamlessly to a thinner body. I think this is how this will work for all square watches for a few years. But I also think Apple will make a round watch eventually.

 

[KenAFSPC]

Where is this Samsung watch you speak of? I'd like to try it out.

I don't think a shipping watch exists with the feature. The feature was pictured and described in detail in a Samsung patent application that made the rounds (on sites such at this) a few months ago.

 

[Rogifan]

I don't think a shipping watch exists with the feature. The feature was pictured and described in detail in a Samsung patent application that made the rounds (on sites such at this) a few months ago.

Well I'll wait for it to launch then. Certainly interested to try it out.

----------

But I also think Apple will make a round watch eventually.

Why?

 

[FuNGi]

So every year millions of people line up at the Apple Store to get their watch upgraded. Apple would have to hire a small country (which they can at the moment) just for the yearly upgrades. I hope you're right though, but I doubt anyone but the Edition buyers will get that kind of service.

Not every year, no. I don't expect Apple to upgrade the watch hardware that frequently anyway. I agree that this service may be limited to higher tiered models.

Well, if they could have a 50% markeup on say a $150 S1 upgrade per year, instead of people upgrading their watch every 4 years, they'd surely do it..

$350*1/4 = $85*0.6= $51 profit / year VS $100 profit per upgrade. Doesn't seem like a bad deal.

Obviously, they wouldn't want to support internal connectors internally. But, they could support support them for 5 years for sure.

The advantage of that people would also have a tendency to go for much more expensive casings, with Apple probably also having a higher margins on those too.

Seems pretty logical to me. Doesn't mean they'll do it though. I don't know the engineering and logistics of doing so.

They surely don't want 5 year upgrade cycles like the Ipad.
Getting money continuously would be different and original.

Exactly. It might increase the number of people buying higher end models that were hesitant given it's lifespan might be perceived to be only 2 years.

Apple is all about margins. If this would provide the highest margins (it could); they may do it.

If they could build Mac Mini that allow a pluggable sealed circuit board (looking like a cartridge) to be swapped each year by users for half the price of the new device (thus greatly shortening upgrade cycles), they would.

Say a device X is replace every 5 years.
Either you get P * 20% * 0.4 = P*8% profit per year
or you get say
P/2 * 0.50 (profit margin) = P*25% each mid cycle upgrade
Even if they took this upgrade once every 3 years, you'd still be slightly ahead.

I'd think 2–3 year circuit board swaps would make sense. Why not also get a new battery while your at it? Then a new band the next year? More profit on separate individual components than an entirely new unit after 4 years.

Just an idea.

 

[MH01]

But who says people are going to do that? We're finding out they're not doing that with iPads. And considering how much work Apple has put into the watch bands do you really think they expect those bands to become obsolete in a year or two? It could be Apple makes more money off 'servicing' the watch than expecting people to buy a new one every year or two. I'm not saying Apple would for sure do that. But no doubt they've had these conversations. Especially if the watch isn't something you'll pay off over time like most people do with their phones.

If Apple offered a watch that could be "serviced" , Id be more inclined to buy One. I guess we will know today.

 

[bobob]

I'm not entirely sold on the digital crown. Turning a small dial requires some amount of dexterity. I imagine it will cause difficulties for those with older, arthritic fingers.

From the video demo, it appears that you don't have to grip the crown, but that you can simply slide your finger on it's knurled edge.

I think Samsung came up with a far more innovative alternative - a ring around the side of a circular watch that users turn clockwise or counter clockwise to perform the same function as the digital crown. The ring looks much, much easier to use than Apple's digital crown. The downside is that such a ring only works on a round watch.

Another downside would be that your hand would often block the screen when operating this ring dial.

 

[Steviejobz]

Lots of folks knocking the sport edition but I like it. I think a steel watch is fine, but I'm leading toward using my apple watch at the gym and I want to not treat it like a dressy watch. If you're not someone who normally wears a watch I could see folks going for the steel as something to wear at work, going out etc. But I don't plan on tossing my Rolex and Panerai just yet to have a small version of my phone on my wrist.