What to Expect From Apple's Earnings — First Revenue Decline Since 2019?

[nilox]

As I noted on 9to5mac back on October, pricing may remain unchanged in the US, but in Europe it has taken a big jump. The base level 12.9" iPad Pro M2 starts at 1449€ in Germany, while the M1 one, started at 1199€. That's 250€ extra a lot of people will not want to spend. Europe is 25% of Apple Sales (while the US is 40%), and it will take a huge blow in Q4.

 

[subjonas]

Apple offers just as many opinions as they do facts during earnings calls.

You (and anyone in the world) are free to make any statement as if it is objective fact—but just keep in mind, if you’re goal is to convince anyone (with a critical-thinking mind) of your statement, then that’s not going to happen without providing some form of evidence to back it up.
By the way, evidence = direct quotes, reports by credible sources, actual numbers, etc. Evidence =/= more statements by an internet person.

But if you don’t care if anyone believes you, or if you only care about speaking to people who already share your views, then no evidence is needed.

 

[compwiz1202]

That describes me. There's only so much time and attention I can give to any given physical consumer product. Any expenses beyond that is just wasted. I too have been cutting back with consumer products so I can travel more. The experiences will do me better in the long run for sure.

It really feels like Apple wishes their customer base would pay them a premium for their products, but also buy them as much and as frequently as low-end devices. Can't have it both ways! At least for those of us who don't have that kind of extra $$ lying around!



I had to deal with this sort of thing when I was into the Palm OS platform from the 00s and into the 10s. Consumers wanted "an ultimate device that had it all", but the problem was, if they don't hold back, they won't have anything to draw us for future products

Yea the only thing I could get were iPhones, but those got boring, and forget the MacBooks, especially the largest screen. The lower Samsung Laptops they just posted on here might actually be doable for a 16"

 

[4odomi]

Apple is set to report its earnings results for the first quarter of its 2023 fiscal year tomorrow at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. Apple CEO Tim Cook and Apple CFO Luca Maestri will discuss the results on a conference call for investors a half hour later.

Keep reading for some key things to know about the quarter, including a recap of products announced, revenue expectations, and more.

New Products During Quarter

Apple's first quarter ran from September 25 through December 31, according to the company's 2023 fiscal calendar. Apple released a handful of new products during this period, including updated iPad and Apple TV models:

• 11-inch iPad Pro (4th generation) and 12.9-inch iPad Pro (6th generation)
• iPad (10th generation)
• Apple TV 4K (3rd generation)
• iPhone 14 Plus (pre-orders began in September)

First Revenue Decline Since 2019?

On average, Apple is estimated to report revenue of $121.2 billion for the quarter, according to Yahoo Finance. This would be down around 2% from $123.9 billion in the year-ago quarter and represent Apple's first revenue decline since 2019.

In November, Apple issued a rare warning to investors about iPhone 14 Pro supply constraints:Conference Call

Apple's CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri will hold a conference call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time tomorrow to discuss the company's first quarter earnings results. The call should be around one hour long and will include a Q&A segment with analysts.

A live audio stream of the conference call will be available on Apple's Investor Relations page, and a recording will be available at a later time for replay.

Investors will be listening for any potential commentary surrounding the economy as concerns persist about a recession in the U.S. and other countries.

What's Next

Apple's second quarter of fiscal 2023 began January 1 and runs through April 1. The quarter has already included orders for updated 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, updated Mac mini models, and a new HomePod.

Apple has not provided guidance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but analysts currently expect Apple to post sub-1% year-over-year growth in Q2 2023.

AAPL is currently trading slightly below $143, down around 20% from a 52-week high of $179.61.

Article Link: What to Expect From Apple's Earnings — First Revenue Decline Since 2019?

If it's only 2%, that would be a huge result for Apple, however I suspect the next 3 qtrs, will gradually get worse, partly because of the poor upgrades released since the iPad 😏

 

[4odomi]

Maybe they’ll reconsider their product strategy of incrementally adding features like WiFi 6E and a periscope lens years after the competition.

You clearly don't understand the kind of customer Apple caters for and you certainly don't understand the 6 E wi-fi !
I'd love a periscope Lens, so like most users I can use it twice a year 🤣, but not at the expense of my battery!
Wi-Fi 6e is a bit like 5G fast with poor signal penetration, The new M2 pro are much faster over any wi-fi, because the chip is twice as fast, nothing to do with 6e.

 

[4odomi]

Can anyone explain to me how the Second Quarter starts in January when the year 2023 starts in January? Shouldn’t we currently be in the 1st quarter or is that another weird American thing like putting the month before the day? Seriously wondering, no shade. Stock stuff is too complicated to me, tried EFTs for a while but failed miserably

It's their Fiscal year ie; the start of their business year (in layman's terms) and it starts in September, because that's when they launch their biggest product line

 

[4odomi]

Let’s hope this is the beginning of year on year decline forcing them to lower prices and re-focus on making great products, not spreading features across different models just to create an artificial pricing structure.

In real terms they are lower, prices have stayed the same over the past 2 years, which is a feat in it self considering costs have shot up by at least 20%, the weakness of currencies against the dollar, has nothing to do with Apple! People in Europe should blame their woke and crooked politicians 😡

 

[4odomi]

Looks like AMD did very well, based on today's jump in stock price?

Hardly surprising, considering there is a world wide shortage of chips 😏

 

[Abazigal]

im perfectly fine with a revenue drop. they are still super profitable. I don't get why everyone (meaning investors) expect a company to always make huge profits Y/Y. As long as it's profitable and they are making products I and others want to buy (and can afford), then who cares if they made 1% profit vs 500% profit (though 500% would be nice...)

It’s less that they care, and more that they want something to bash Apple over.

I guess it'd be asking for too much for Apple to give us a bigger dividend increase than their usual 4.5%-6.5% that we've been getting for the past few years what with their record profits and revenue during the pandemic years. From 2018 and earlier we saw increases of 10% and more.

That’s what a share buyback is for. Raise the stock price by reducing supply, allowing shareholders to cash out at a time of their choosing by selling the stock they are holding.

 

[UK-MacAddict]

In real terms they are lower, prices have stayed the same over the past 2 years, which is a feat in it self considering costs have shot up by at least 20%, the weakness of currencies against the dollar, has nothing to do with Apple! People in Europe should blame their woke and crooked politicians 😡

Even taking into account VAT and the fluctuating exchange rates prices should be lower here in the UK and Europe. Apple favour their home market but seem to be passing on the costs to those outside the US.

 

[SFjohn]

Related

Apple's expected to post its first revenue decline since 2019 on Thursday

Apple reports December quarter earnings on Thursday, and there are a lot of factors pointing to the company's first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019.

www.cnbc.com

It certainly was a tough quarter for the whole industry. But if Apple still fares better then most that is considered a win by Wall Street.

I expect the Wall Street Pundits to absolutely crush Apple‘s Stock tomorrow because the can. They love to pump Apple’s Stock making money by how it moves up and down. I hope I’m wrong. 🤞🏻

 

[TracesOfArsenic]

The question is how long can they get away with blaming supply when they should be blaming poor value? The products are ridiculously overpriced and are not advancing at the same rate as their prices.

100% Tim won't take responsibility for lacklustre product releases, that would go against the hubris of modern day Apple. We're seeing recycled parts, mediocre ideas and services, marred by buggy software that's all wrapped up in exorbitant prices. Meanwhile the shareholders will tell you Tim Cook is doing a stellar job because they're all getting fat dividends because his strength is spreadsheets, so to hell with everything else.

 

[Realityck]

100% Tim won't take responsibility for lacklustre product releases, that would go against the hubris of modern day Apple. We're seeing recycled parts, mediocre ideas and services, marred by buggy software that's all wrapped up in exorbitant prices. Meanwhile the shareholders will tell you Tim Cook is doing a stellar job because they're all getting fat dividends because his strength is spreadsheets, so to hell with everything else.

You forgotten about China’s zero policy of locking down large cities so soon? Yeah it ended late December 2022 but diffidently influenced Apple’s revenue last quarter that is being reported tomorrow.

How a deadly fire ignited dissent over China's zero-Covid policy | CNN

Stunning scenes of dissent and defiance played out across China over the past week, marking the country's largest protests in decades -- and an unprecedented challenge to leader Xi Jinping.

www.cnn.com

China COVID Policy: Major Changes in Further Easing

US News is a recognized leader in college, grad school, hospital, mutual fund, and car rankings. Track elected officials, research health conditions, and find news you can use in politics, business, health, and education.

www.usnews.com

China Suddenly Abandoned Its Zero COVID Policy. How Did It Start In The First Place?

We tend to think China has a strict, top-down COVID-19 policy, but local variation is what really shaped the outcome, from beginning to end.

thediplomat.com

 

[svish]

Revenue should bounce back up next quarter.

 

[ducknalddon]

People in Europe should blame their woke and crooked politicians 😡

As if American is a bastion of political honesty.

 

[SouthPalito]

Maybe they’ll reconsider their product strategy of incrementally adding features like WiFi 6E and a periscope lens years after the competition.

it was posted that all of apple’s major competitors have suffered a loss of revenue. Apple probably lost less than them.

 

[sam_dean]

China's COVID hard lockdown disrupted and increased cost of supply chain.

No big surprise it didnt work out

 

[webkit]

Even taking into account VAT and the fluctuating exchange rates prices should be lower here in the UK and Europe. Apple favour their home market but seem to be passing on the costs to those outside the US.

Apple doesn't typically adjust prices every month or quarter (up or down) to reflect exchange rate changes. However, sometimes when prices are set, they are actually LOWER in the UK then they are in the U.S.

For example, when the iPhone 14 launched in mid-September, the exchange rate was around 1 GBP = $1.15. The pre-VAT price of a 128GB iPhone 14 in the UK is £707 which put the price in USD at around $813. The pre-sales tax price of the same phone in the U.S. is $829. The price in the UK was actually LOWER than the price in the U.S. That was hardly "favoring the home market" or "passing on the costs to those outside the U.S."

 

[mrochester]

Apple doesn't typically adjust prices every month or quarter (up or down) to reflect exchange rate changes. However, sometimes when prices are set, they are actually LOWER in the UK then they are in the U.S.

For example, when the iPhone 14 launched in mid-September, the exchange rate was around 1 GBP = $1.15. The pre-VAT price of a 128GB iPhone 14 in the UK is £707 which put the price in USD at around $813. The pre-sales tax price of the same phone in the U.S. is $829. The price in the UK was actually LOWER than the price in the U.S. That was hardly "favoring the home market" or "passing on the costs to those outside the U.S."

Yes Apple has to take a view and set the price accordingly, else they‘d have to constantly adjust prices.

 

[ackmondual]

I don’t think Apple expects you to replace your devices very often, that’s why they support them for so long. It sounds like you are projecting!

They release a new model every year. They could easily just cut that back to every other year, or every 3 years.
I've been on MR to notice many cases where Apple Store employees will tell the customers they're supporting that a macbook can't be fixed, you're better off just buying a new one.

Last but not least.. they're still a hardware company.

 

[webkit]

They release a new model every year. They could easily just cut that back to every other year, or every 3 years.

A reason Apple releases a new model every year is because they want to remain competitive in the market and not everyone is on the same purchase schedule. Whenever a customer is ready to buy (whether it be to replace a one year old device, a ten year old device, or to purchase their first device), Apple wants to be able to provide them with as current of a product as possible.

 

[mrochester]

They release a new model every year. They could easily just cut that back to every other year, or every 3 years.
I've been on MR to notice many cases where Apple Store employees will tell the customers they're supporting that a macbook can't be fixed, you're better off just buying a new one.

Last but not least.. they're still a hardware company.

Apple releasing a new model each year doesn’t mean you need to buy it. If they wanted you to buy a new model frequently they wouldn’t support their devices for so long with software updates and hardware service.

 

[macdisciple]

With the widely held opinions earnings will be down, why is AAPL trading higher today - before the earnings report at 1:30 Pacific time?

 

[Realityck]

With the widely held opinions earnings will be down, why is AAPL trading higher today - before the earnings report at 1:30 Pacific time?

Because most see Apple performing well in the future. They consider last quarter's earnings a blip.

 

[macdisciple]

Because most see Apple performing well in the future. They consider last quarter's earnings a blip.

The stock was flat for a couple of weeks until articles about lower earnings started coming out - literally yesterday, Feb 1. Just seems weird to me.