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I have no idea what you're trying to say, but here's my response.

Either she knew the answer or she didn't - there's not much middle ground there.

Sure there is. You can be pretty darned sure you know the answer, but there's still a chance you're wrong. Call it being 99% sure. Given the circumstances, it's easy to fashion a guess such that you can both prove to yourself you are correct, but also not knock yourself out of the running in the 1% chance you turn out to be wrong.
 
I tried out for Wheel of Fortune way back when I was in college and they had a traveling audition in Minnesota. You have no idea how hard it is to think when you are on the spot and everyone is looking at you. My phrase was "Pepperoni Pizza". If I had guessed the friggin' "P" I would have had it! Seriously, that happened in the early '80s and the failure is still burned in my brain, lol. My only consolation was that they weren't going to pay our way to LA if we got picked and I didn't have the money to go.
 
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