When do you predict the iPad 3 will be released?

[Chupa Chupa]

Holiday season is important
The iPad 2 will probably be looking pretty stale come December... the iPad did fine in last holiday season, because it was such a game changer that nobody was able to release anything substantial to combat it. They have woken up since then, and between now and Christmas I bet there will be nearly a dozen worthy iPad 2 competitors. Apple wouldn't want to miss such an important sales season.

You could have said that about the iPhone 3GS and 4 too and yet Apple has had consecutive "blow out" holiday season sales.

The next iPad will come out this time next year. There is no doubt in my mind. Apple has its cycles and they work for the company. Apple is unique in that few other companies have a critical mass of consumers that seek to upgrade each cycle. They can do this b/c it's spread out. If Apple merges the iPad with the iPod cycle or has two iPad cycles per year it makes it impossible for most consumers to upgrade everything. They will pick and choose. In the end that is lost sales and cash flow to Apple.

 

[brettatk]

How can this be the "Year of the iPad 2" if the iPad 3 is coming in September? Crazy talk. No way we'll see something before 2012.

 

[eawmp1]

The iPad 3 will come out Spring 2012, just in time for Apple to finally meed production quotas to supply demand for the iPad 2.

 

[sineplex]

1 model every 12 months

just like a car

2011 ipad 2
2012 ipad 3
2013 ipad 4
2014 ipad 5

notice every time a new apple product comes out and everyone speculates
that it's going to have this and going to do that ? . . .

then when they fiinally present the key note it's exactly what everyone thought without any new surprises and everyone is disappointed ?

well don't worry, it will be like that for eternity.

every year they will present one model that does the bare minimum, but with just that small edge over all the competitors and at just the right price.

 

[JulianL]

Maybe they will just add a 2048x1536 resolution screen to the current iPad2 form factor and call it iPad 2x and release it this Fall. It would have to be at a higher price because there is no way it would be available in the $499 model. (By doing this they can get away with saying 2011 is the year of iPad 2 and not piss people off)

Fall 2012 they would release iPad 3 with 2048x1536 resolution screen across the board and LTE wireless. By then developers would have updated their apps to the higher resolution, screens would be cheaper and LTE more widespread. (drools)

If it happens this year then the above seems the sensible way to do it. It solves a number of objections to a 2011 launch, namely:

1) Potential Issue: 2048x1536 will be too expensive in 2011 to hit the current iPad price points.... Solution: Premium price the 2011 higher resolution model.

2) Potential Issue: Jobs said in the iPad 2 launch that 2011 is the year of the iPad 2.... Solution: Position the 2011 higher resolution model as the top end of the iPad 2 range, e.g. the "iPad 2x".

3) Potential Issue: Buyers of the current iPad 2 will be upset.... Solution: Make the higher resolution model sufficiently more expensive that a "you get what you pay for" argument can be made for the 2011 range.

If Apple can pull the pieces together in 2011 then I think it's a strategy that hangs together. It also gives them a nice premium price product to sell to early adopters and makes it clear that Apple really is staying at the head of the pack when it comes to the tablet market.

- Julian

 

[AppleFan360]

Maybe an iPad 2GS before the end of the year but no iPad 3 until next year.

 

[darngooddesign]

One year from now.

 

[iJays]

It depends if Samsung still wants to make the A5/A6 for Apple after stevie's performance last time.

 

[EdwardMoffet]

It depends if Samsung still wants to make the A5/A6 for Apple after stevie's performance last time.

Of course they will. Business is business, I can't imagine how much apple is paying them. And if Samsung wouldn't do it, someone else would. Samsung wouldn't be hurting anyone but themselves.

 

[canyonblue737]

IPad 1 was released a month early likely to take the steam out of Xoom and Samsung. However, I firmly believe that Apple will stick to their annual cycle.

So, March or April 2012 will be the release of the iPad 3. Don't see it happening this year, regardless of Xmas and holiday sales.

+1. I think late March / early April 2012.

 

[Tstrong2000]

The real question is...

..will we have gotten our shipments of our IPad 2s before the release date of the 3. Maybe we should all get in line now!

 

[fanboy05]

iPad 3 in march/ April of 2012

 

[diamornte]

iPad 3 in Feb 2012. Or maybe Apple will learn from their mistakes from iPad2's production/demand problem and won't release it til enough have been made...and push to April 2012 or June 2012, releasing in time with iPhone 6.

 

[iJays]

Of course they will. Business is business, I can't imagine how much apple is paying them. And if Samsung wouldn't do it, someone else would. Samsung wouldn't be hurting anyone but themselves.

let us come back to this thread when ipad3 is out. shall we?

 

[EdwardMoffet]

let us come back to this thread when ipad3 is out. shall we?

Call me cynical, but I'm pretty sure this thread will be long forgotten by that time.

 

[rdowty]

Call me cynical, but I'm pretty sure this thread will be long forgotten by that time.

I think an October release is unlikely because the people who ordered online on launch day won't even have their iPad 2's by then.

 

[jonhcox]

I think the OP is failing to realize a few things,

First, you are totally ignoring the development costs of releasing new tech extremely quickly, especially when you consider that the current iteration is having no issues selling, and won't for the foreseeable future.

Let's just say the development cost for a version of the iPad is ~50mil (totally made up number, no clue what they cost to design, could be 10mil or 500mil)

Now let's say that apple is meeting or exceeding their sales expectations (don't even try and act like they won't)

Why would apple bother to release a 3rd gen tablet and waste all the development costs on a device prematurely?

Apple also likes to wait between generations of other companies devices so that it looks like they are more advanced than they are.

Apple will probably wait until a few months after the 3rd gen (if you consider xoom 2nd gen) Honeycomb tablets come out to release their new even moar better tablet. This gives them time to better match their specs to the competition and increases the chances of us seeing a retina display.

What I could see Apple release in like 6months, is a LTE iPad 2.

Anyways, the other really large issue in your theory is the current situation in Japan, while the effects likely won't be THAT dramatic for Apple, it will cause delays in both manufacture, and adjustments in design for unreleased devices which will also cause delays.

The bigger effect will be the delays on other companies, which will reduce the demand for Apple to update quickly.

Do you honestly think Apple will have a hard time moving iPad 2s come Christmas time?

The original iPad was outselling the Xoom despite the difference in specs, Apple sells an experience, not just a product, and that isn't going to change.



There are also a few flaws in your reasoning, you talk about the competition heating up, but from where I'm standing, at least for now, it looks like the iPad is slaughtering everything else, and I don't think that's going to change just because someone slaps some more ram or a faster processor in a non iPad tablet.

As for your statements regarding the holiday season, while I'm sure tablets will do decent sales during the holidays, that's not really what apple is aiming for, the iPad's price is a bit beyond your average gift price, and it isn't really a necessity type buy, what apple is targeting is something far more heinous...

Tax return checks. People LOVE to spend their tax returns of unessential things, (that's how I got my iPad this year)

Apple also doesn't want to overlap their releases too close to each other, the last thing apple wants to do is cannibalize their own sales because customers ran out of money on the last product 2 months ago.



Long story short, all of your theory is based on the idea that Apple is facing any sort of real risk of losing the tablet market, or that anything coming in the next 3-6 months will really be anything more than a similarly spec'd device that is running a less refined OS and or will somehow find the hipness that Apple currently enjoys. Alot of what's to come also depend on what apple does with iOS 5.

At the end of the day I just can't see why Apple would NEED to release a new iPad early. I'm not saying they couldn't, Apple could release a tablet in 2-3 months that would outspec the 2, but why would they? Anyone who was going to buy an iPad for Christmas isn't going to be waiting for March anyway.


One last thing you are ignoring are the risks in upsetting customers be releasing earlier than they expected, and the dangers in meeting supply during holiday season. Production for the iPad 2 is just ramping up, and clearly is not currently meeting demand. So Apple is currently tooling around to get iPad 2 production up to snuff, they also are probably beginning to work on backend production for the iPhone 5. It will probably be 3-6 months before production of the iPad can truly meet demand, especially with Japan.

Releasing early would mean retooling your entire production line and during holiday season the demand would be SUBSTANTIALLY greater, and customers are far more inclined to become extremely upset when they can't get ahold of their precious device in time for Christmas.

It also would raise costs as Apple would have to source new parts, a big part of the reason the iPad is at the quality it is for the price it is, is the volume and length of term which Apple buys the parts for it's products. Apple is able to buy in extremely large volume BECAUSE the product cycle is long. They can secure long term contracts for specific parts because they aren't constantly changing them.

Anyways. Time for sleep.

IMO there will be no TRUE iPad 3 in 2011 (4g is possible though)

This is about a good and logical explanation as the OP can get as to why we won't see an iPad 3 this year. Let me walk a tangent for a second. The simple facts are that until Honeycomb becomes fruitful and multiplies (hardware -wise), market competition and Android tablet OS is really 12-18 months away from even getting close to providing the experience that iOS offers to typical iProduct owners. The reality is that 'Jane', a 40-something professional, will typically prefer the ecosystem of iOS versus Honeycomb. As of now, the Android strengths can be attributed to its open system and customization abilities, and this still applies to Honeycomb. It's common knowledge that people accustomed to tech and its many visages enjoy the customization of Android. But Jane, Grandma and Grandad will prefer the ease of iOS, as do many of us (who are tech savvy) that just prefer the iOS ecosystem.

To sum up where I am going here- it's going to take a while, maybe a year or two, before Honeycomb-powered tablets begin to take hold. That's all related to why Apple is in no hurry to launch the iPad 3. Especially as I am sure that improvements in the new version of iOS, iOS 5, will address shortfalls in the current iteration. This will bring some parity to the competition, as far as what Android has that iOS does not.

 

[iJays]

Call me cynical, but I'm pretty sure this thread will be long forgotten by that time.

just to prove the points because you seem certain on your first reply: "of course they will..."

 

[jonhcox]

let us come back to this thread when ipad3 is out. shall we?

How's about March of next year?

 

[Night Spring]

For example, the iPad 3 could fairly easily add a retina display and an sd card slot. No new battery, no new form factor, same A5 processor.

I can't believe no one seems to have pointed this out -- adding a retina display is easy????? And how do you propose to add an SD card slot without a significant change to the form factor, have you seen how thin the iPad 2 is? There isn't room for an SD card slot there!

 

[smiddlehurst]

Does John Gruber have any real insight on the iPad 3 being released with the iPod updates in September,

WHY does everyone think Gruber has any special knowledge about this? He's said himself on multiple occasions he's just speculating and is purely basing that speculation on thinking Apple wants a new product for the Xmas run-in. The amount of nonsense that's been written because of that one post (which, again, made it clear this was not based on anything but a gut feel) is quite extraordinary.

As for the question, no you won't see iPad 3 this year for one simple reason: the technology doesn't line up. Apple have made their chip for the year in the form of the A5. It's going to be more than powerful enough to see them through 2011 (certainly on a par with Tegra 2 and, in many areas, is significantly faster) and they've shown time and again they want to maximise economies of scale and use the same chip in the full iOS product range. For the iPad to gain a retina display they'd have to upgrade the SoC to match performance of the iPad 2 at the higher resolution, one cannot happen without the other.

There's a whole bunch of other reasons too (mainly centered around them not needing to provide a refresh model. Demand has been extraordinary, the competition doesn't seem to have anything in the immediate future to worry them and at this rate they may still be struggling to keep up with demand in September, let alone introduce a new model) but that's the killer. The tech just isn't going to be available at the right price point for an iPad 3. I guess there's a chance you may see an iPad 2 Pro at a higher price point but that doesn't seem like a very Apple thing to do as it'd effectively blow the surprise of at least SOME of the features of the iPad 3.

To be honest I've never understood why people were so convinced Apple weren't going to launch iPad 2 in March / April 2011. It's the perfect slot in their release schedule giving something major before the iPhone launch in June and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the iOS 5 launch was delivered on an iPad 2. That's always been a problem actually, showcasing iOS 5 on existing hardware when everyone knows it's going to be on the new iPhone. This way they can show the developer stuff and any iPad changes in April and keep the iPhone stuff a surprise for the launch in January. A yearly schedule for iPad makes a lot of sense IF Apple can keep on bringing cutting edge hardware to market when they release it (and make no mistake, the A5 is just that, especially on the graphics side) and support that hardware with a new iOS release just a few months later.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

My guess is a 2012 launch, most likely spring. There's so much demand for the iPad 2 right now, and it's going to be awhile before they even meet that current demand, who knows when the demand will start to lessen.

I can, however, see them release an "ipad nano" type device in a 7in form factor with a retina display. The smaller size would keep the cost of the retina display down and would also keep it from really competing with a full size ipad.

You talk about the demand issues, but we have no idea what kind of supply lines Apple is ramping up with. We are having a bottleneck right now sure, but I'm willing to bet that in as little as 2 months there will be a constant supply of iPad 2's sitting on the shelves.

I've been debating an alternative version iPad this year instead, like an iPad nano or an iPad HD, and I think that is a valid possibility.

I don't think, Apple would choose this 'slogan' specifically, if they had been planning a fall release of the iPad 3. They could have used another wording to keep the possibility of an 'early' iPad 3 alive. But this one pretty much makes me believe they'll stick with a release next Spring

That's what I was thinking as well, but then I realized that doesn't necessarily mean anything. http://www.tuaw.com/2011/03/04/apples-year-of-ipad-2-doesnt-necessarily-mean-no-more-ipad-u/

I think the OP is failing to realize a few things,

1)First, you are totally ignoring the development costs of releasing new tech extremely quickly,


2)Do you honestly think Apple will have a hard time moving iPad 2s come Christmas time?

3)The original iPad was outselling the Xoom despite the difference in specs, Apple sells an experience, not just a product, and that isn't going to change.


4)you talk about the competition heating up, but from where I'm standing, at least for now, it looks like the iPad is slaughtering everything else, and I don't think that's going to change just because someone slaps some more ram or a faster processor in a non iPad tablet.

5)Tax return checks. People LOVE to spend their tax returns of unessential things, (that's how I got my iPad this year)

6)Apple also doesn't want to overlap their releases too close to each other, the last thing apple wants to do is cannibalize their own sales because customers ran out of money on the last product 2 months ago.


7)At the end of the day I just can't see why Apple would NEED to release a new iPad early. I'm not saying they couldn't, Apple could release a tablet in 2-3 months that would outspec the 2, but why would they? Anyone who was going to buy an iPad for Christmas isn't going to be waiting for March anyway.


8)One last thing you are ignoring are the risks in upsetting customers be releasing earlier than they expected,

Ok, I'm going to try to respond to this is chunks.

1) I actually didn't ignore developmental costs. the iPad 1 was on a 10-11 month production cycle. I stated that Apple would in the future keep the production lines open for the last gen model, preserving that developmental cost. Thus instead of restarting every 10-12 months, they could keep the same production line open for 16-20 months, while opening their potential market.

2) I don't think Apple will necessarily have a hard time, but I think that they will be much poorer than they could be.

3) source? I think this statement is actually extremely laughable... the Xoom was only out for 1 week before the iPad 2 was announced. So then you are comparing a $400 iPad to a $800 xoom.... I wouldn't be surprised if the iPad sold more

4) Of course the iPad is slaughtering everything else. "everything else" has yet to be released. the xoom is the ONLY competitor currently (in my eyes) and since the wifi only version isn't out yet the $800 price point is a bit high to swallow. But with the Playbook, WebOS tablets, and the slew of honeycomb tablets arriving, there will be a dozen legitimate iPad contenders come Christmas (many of them probably equalling or beating the iPad price). I'm not saying that any of them individually will be selling higher than the iPad. But this past holiday quarter the iPad held 75% of the tablet market. That seems INSANELY low to me, considering how there was NO competition. Galaxy tab was the only somewhat competitor. If the iPad could only hold 75% then, the iPad 2 will be lucky to hold on to 40% with the coming competitors. That would not be acceptable to Apple...

5) ok, true that is one good thing about this time of season. but not even that is enough to force apple to keep the same release time evey year.

6)Apple hasn't worried about cannabolizing any of their Mac's that they release every 8-10 months. Plus Apple cares more about raw sales numbers. This would be the best way to get those sales numbers

7) no but instead of buying an old looking iPad 2 they will get the brand new XYZ tablet released last month

8) Gosh, this frusterates me. Why do we feel entitled to have our iDevice for a full 12 months before it becomes "outdated"? Apple is under no obligation to delay innovation so we can feel satisfied with our shiny iDevice for a few months longer.

You could have said that about the iPhone 3GS and 4 too and yet Apple has had consecutive "blow out" holiday season sales.

Sure but those products were released in July. That's only 5 months before Christmas. In my mind that is the perfect length of time, because that allows demand to have gently subsided before the huge increase for the holiday season. As opposed to the iPad being released 9 months before christmas. That is a long time in such a competitive market. Especially when the iPad is already showing 10-11 month refresh cycles. People will be much more hesitant to pull the finger.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

I can't believe no one seems to have pointed this out -- adding a retina display is easy????? And how do you propose to add an SD card slot without a significant change to the form factor, have you seen how thin the iPad 2 is? There isn't room for an SD card slot there!

yes adding a retina display is easy. remove current display, replace with double resolution display. done. They are already being made, it's just not cost effective right now. But with the supposed Apple huge buyout of LCD's and some slight price decreases, it should be ready come winter. If it would still be too expensive Apple may create the iPad 2 HD and charge a slight premium.

I'm sure apple can find room, they always do. Rumor has it the SD slot was ditched at the last minute anyway so they probably already have a plan.

I'm not sure why everyone on MR is so set on a 12 month cycle. First of all, it is a very passive pattern. slows innovation. lets the competition heat up. delays new products. etc. And secondly, the only precedent is the iPhone. iPods didn't even switch to a yearly cycle until their 8th gen iPod, and even then some of the updates have been unreliable. In fact even the iPhone got a storage bump halfway through the first year. The iPhone makes sense to have a reliable upgrade timeframe due to carrier contracts. The iPad is under no such obligation.

 

[Fliesen]

yes adding a retina display is easy. remove current display, replace with double resolution display. done.

you'd need to at least upgrade the Ram aswell, i think

 

[Night Spring]

yes adding a retina display is easy. remove current display, replace with double resolution display. done. They are already being made, it's just not cost effective right now. But with the supposed Apple huge buyout of LCD's and some slight price decreases, it should be ready come winter. If it would still be too expensive Apple may create the iPad 2 HD and charge a slight premium.

I'm sure apple can find room, they always do. Rumor has it the SD slot was ditched at the last minute anyway so they probably already have a plan.

It's just not taking out one screen and snapping another in, they'll need to write new drivers to control a double-resolution screen, perhaps the wiring will need to be changed to support it, power requirements will likely be different too, so they would have to adjust the battery if they want to keep the same battery life, etc, etc, etc.

And have you actually seen an iPad2? Held one in your hand? If you have, and you believe that rumor that the SD slot was ditched at the last minute, you really have no concept of what goes into designing an electronics product. There is barely room in that case for the microsim card on the AT&T model, much less an SD card slot. And that kind of design decision takes place very early on in product development, just no way that ditching the SD card was a last-minute decision.

iPods didn't even switch to a yearly cycle until their 8th gen iPod,

8th? What are you counting? According to wikipedia, the latest iPod is the 6th gen. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_iPod_models) Even if you count the 2008 and 2009 models as separate gens, it's still on the 8th gen, so you can't have them switching to a yearly cycle starting with the "8th" gen, since no new iPod models have been released after that.