When do you predict the iPad 3 will be released?

[eawmp1]

I'm not sure why everyone on MR is so set on a 12 month cycle. First of all, it is a very passive pattern. slows innovation. lets the competition heat up. delays new products. etc. And secondly, the only precedent is the iPhone. iPods didn't even switch to a yearly cycle until their 8th gen iPod, and even then some of the updates have been unreliable. In fact even the iPhone got a storage bump halfway through the first year. The iPhone makes sense to have a reliable upgrade timeframe due to carrier contracts. The iPad is under no such obligation.

You have no clue about design, engineering, and production cycles. Adding every new feature as it is developed involves massive changes in redesign, reengineering, and retooling production lines.

I am actually shocked Apple can come out with a new iPhone or iPad on a 12 month cycle.

 

[EdwardMoffet]

just to prove the points because you seem certain on your first reply: "of course they will..."

Oh yeah let's all wait for a year to prove this guy on the internet wrong because he seemed certain! Seriously?

But no, you're absolutely right. Samsung won't make the A5 chip anymore because big bad steve jobs called them "copycat" on stage and hurted their wittle feelings and every other semiconductor manufacturer will side with samsung and boycott apple and it will be their downfall. There, feel better?

I don't really care if I'm right or wrong, I'm not here to compete, so from now on you're automatically right no matter what anyone on the internet says, mmkay pumpkin?

 

[dmaul1114]

I'd be very surprised if they deviated from the 12 month cycle by more than a month or two.

These things are too pricey, too many will get pissed off if there's an upgrade more than once a year I'd think.

Though most are probably not the Apple diehards on here and realize they use their tablet for basic things and don't need the latest and greatest version anyway (same with iPod revisions etc.). I know I'll use my iPad 2 for at least 2 or 3 years barring a any problems since I don't need anything else as I just use it for netsurfing, e-mail, video calls, reading PDFs, news apps, simple games etc.

Only thing I wish it had/could do was a full MS office or something truly 100% compatible that didn't often wreck formatting like iWorks and Docs to Go do, and that's a software issue rather than hardware.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

8th? What are you counting? According to wikipedia, the latest iPod is the 6th gen. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_iPod_models) Even if you count the 2008 and 2009 models as separate gens, it's still on the 8th gen, so you can't have them switching to a yearly cycle starting with the "8th" gen, since no new iPod models have been released after that.

actually I was simply looking at the buyer's guide on this website. I'm guessing it includes storage bumps in the buyer's guide even though they aren't necessarily considered a whole new gen.

You have no clue about design, engineering, and production cycles. Adding every new feature as it is developed involves massive changes in redesign, reengineering, and retooling production lines.

I am actually shocked Apple can come out with a new iPhone or iPad on a 12 month cycle.

does this mean that if a new iPad is released sometime before next March I can come back and tell you that YOU have no clue about design, engineering, and production cycles??

 

[miamialley]

Seems pretty clear to me...

Apple doesn't even think the iPad 3 will come out in 2011.

 

[Night Spring]

does this mean that if a new iPad is released sometime before next March I can come back and tell you that YOU have no clue about design, engineering, and production cycles??

Well, depends on what you mean by "new." Based on differences between what is considered a "generation" of iPods and the number of refreshes counted by the MacRumors buyer's guide, I'd say the common concensus seems to be that storage bumps or increase in RAM don't count as really "new." Oh, and the Verizon iPhone being released in January -- does that count as "new"?

Oops, looks like we've opened a whole new can of worms here!

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Well, depends on what you mean by "new." Based on differences between what is considered a "generation" of iPods and the number of refreshes counted by the MacRumors buyer's guide, I'd say the common concensus seems to be that storage bumps or increase in RAM don't count as really "new." Oh, and the Verizon iPhone being released in January -- does that count as "new"?

Oops, looks like we've opened a whole new can of worms here!

Haha, yes very true. And you could ask 5 different people and get 4 different answers to that question.

Personally, I don't think a storage bumps or carrier additions would constitute calling it a "new" iPad. I wouldn't even consider adding a LTE model as an iPad refresh, assuming that were to be the only thing added. It would just be a new model. I guess for me it is a matter if any of the models stay. For example, if 3G were replaced by LTE and each storage model was doubled, I would still consider it the same iPad 2 because a 32gb wifi only was unchanged, it just had a price reduction of $100.

But if any of the core hardware were to change across the board, RAM, display, processor, camera, etc, then it would be an iPad refresh, no matter how small. Even if the only thing changed was 1GB RAM.

 

[Night Spring]

But if any of the core hardware were to change across the board, RAM, display, processor, camera, etc, then it would be an iPad refresh, no matter how small. Even if the only thing changed was 1GB RAM.

Okay, well, argument about what counts as "new" aside, a minor refresh, like storage bump, more RAM, maybe a slightly better camera -- I wouldn't rule out the chances of thosse kinds of things happening around the half-year mark, though I think even that is unlikely.

Oh, and one more thing that occurs to me, is that Apple could come up with the 7 inch iPad / giant iPod touch some people are clamoring for. (Personally, I think the inbetween size isn't very useful, but it's undeniable there are people who do want it.) Now would that be "new" or just another product?

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Oh, and one more thing that occurs to me, is that Apple could come up with the 7 inch iPad / giant iPod touch some people are clamoring for. (Personally, I think the inbetween size isn't very useful, but it's undeniable there are people who do want it.) Now would that be "new" or just another product?

you just like to stir up trouble don't you! haha

But I would treat the "iPad nano" as a brand new product line. Just as there is the iPod and the iPod nano.

But imagine this. say an iPad nano gets release this year in the sept-nov timeframe.. would an iPad 3 be updated alongside it? I would argue yes, even if it is a very minor bump just to keep it "in-line" with the new iPad nano. Maybe 1GB RAM (following 1GB in the iPhone 5), slightly improved cams, and a few other tweaks.

Otherwise would the iPad nano follow the exact same specs as the iPad 2 or would it have updated RAM, cameras, etc? Then when the iPad 3 is released would the iPad nano be refreshed after only being out for 4-5 months? That's doubtful

 

[Night Spring]

you just like to stir up trouble don't you! haha

Heh. You've found me out! Though you seem to be no slouch in that department yourself.

But imagine this. say an iPad nano gets release this year in the sept-nov timeframe.. would an iPad 3 be updated alongside it? I would argue yes, even if it is a very minor bump just to keep it "in-line" with the new iPad nano. Maybe 1GB RAM (following 1GB in the iPhone 5), slightly improved cams, and a few other tweaks.

Otherwise would the iPad nano follow the exact same specs as the iPad 2 or would it have updated RAM, cameras, etc? Then when the iPad 3 is released would the iPad nano be refreshed after only being out for 4-5 months? That's doubtful

I can well imagine this type of conversations being carried on at Apple HQ as they try to figure out what products to release when. Since Apple almost never explains their rationale for how they arrive at these decisions, nor do they announce products months before their release, we are left speculating what they might do next.

Truth to tell, I don't think I'll be bothered by a minor update to the iPad in the fall. (And I'm not interested in an iPad nano, as I've already said.) I'm very happy with the iPad2, and I'll just hang on to it until the next major update, which I think would be about this time next year!

 

[Jayrcee]

...probably before I ever find an iPad 2 in a store

 

[gatearray]

does this mean that if a new iPad is released sometime before next March I can come back and tell you that YOU have no clue about design, engineering, and production cycles??

Hmmm, well I suppose November (as you originally predicted) is "sometime before next March," but it sounds to me like you're backpedaling a little bit, now.

I'm with the others here who say that iPad 3 will be released around this time next year, but then again, I have some experience arguing with adamant Macrumors members last June about whether the iPad 2 would be released in the fall "for the holiday season," they said. We all know how that turned out!

Here's the thing. Right now, Apple is working with a beautiful release schedule for their flagship products. iPad in the spring, iPhone in the summer, iPod in the fall, and Macs "whenever” they're ready.

And wouldn't you know it, they have tremendous quarterly profits as a result, with all of their big moneymakers evenly spaced out quarterly.

There's absolutely no sane reason, business, or otherwise to disrupt this highly lucrative and successful pattern. Gruber created an unholy monster with his ridiculous "gut feeling" if you ask me, and I wish it would just go away for everyone's benefit.

 

[iMule]

But, people will skip the yearly March release to get the September release. I think that the retina display has caused all these rumors. People didn't get what they want so they somehow justify it. Can you imagine Apple making 18 more unique models in September?

No. By then the iPad 2 will be easier for everyone to get their hands on. It would be a pain on developers to know that a new model was coming out every 6 months.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Hmmm, well I suppose November (as you originally predicted) is "sometime before next March," but it sounds to me like you're backpedaling a little bit, now.

haha well let me start off by stating that I'm not saying that I am certain of my November prediction. That's just what I'm reasoning for and i'm sticking by it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. That comment was directed at somebody who claims I didn't have a clue about how those things work because there is no way apple could do everything in less than 12 months. I was merely humoring that if apple can do that cycle quicker than 12 months (which they actually already did with the iPad 2) they maybe he doesn't actually have a clue about how Apples production cycles work.

Gruber created an unholy monster with his ridiculous "gut feeling" if you ask me, and I wish it would just go away for everyone's benefit.

haha, yeah I admit that all of this talk was spurred by Gruber, and I honestly completely dismissed his idea, actually I still do. But it got me thinking about it more, and though I think september doesn't make any sense a November date seems much more achievable, especially considering the other factors I pointed out

But, people will skip the yearly March release to get the September release. I think that the retina display has caused all these rumors. People didn't get what they want so they somehow justify it. Can you imagine Apple making 18 more unique models in September?

No. By then the iPad 2 will be easier for everyone to get their hands on. It would be a pain on developers to know that a new model was coming out every 6 months.

I never once said every 6 months. I'm merely debating a more unpredictable cycle. 8-10 months might be the average. Some major refreshes may take 15 months. I just think apple should/will be more proactive with refresh cycles than reactive. And I think the iPad 3 could easily be a minimal upgrade that could be ready by November. Maybe the iPad 4 won't be released till the following October.

And of course I could be completely wrong, but I think all of this just makes sense.