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Apple aren't going to price it based on a model with an obsolete i5 CPU. People expecting a $1299 Mini are very

I've said things before but the clues on already released products will inform the price of the upper SKU mini replacement are, in my opinion:

1. The 14" MacBook Pro got a $200 price increase over the 13" Touch Bar Intel model.
2. No SKU of the M1 Pro Macs comes with 8Gb RAM - it's all 16Gb RAM SKUs for now. It makes sense that off the shelf M1 Pro SKUs come with broadly the same 16Gb/512Gb base spec rather than Apple try to go spec for spec.
3. Chip shortage may have an impact, this will either affect shipping times for minis as lower profit margin devices after initial shipments run out or Apple could go for higher profit margins. A case redesign, plus spec bump, and higher base spec could be their justification - and if they can ensure it runs silently why wouldn't they?

Apple could have replaced the upper SKU of the Mac mini with a 16Gb/512Gb storage M1 SKU and called it a day in 2020 making the Mini a low spec device updated in parallel with the MacBook Air.

For me, the high SKU mini is going to be starting at $1499 with 16Gb RAM and 512Gb storage - compare with the $1999 14" MacBook Pro and I think $1499 is rather generous - it could easily be $1599.
Apple hasn’t raised prices for any apple silicon Mac, unless it increases the screen size. This doesn’t apply to the Mac mini. Apple has also sold these macs during a global pandemic without increasing the price, so there is no reason to think they would increase the price.
 
Apple hasn’t raised prices for any apple silicon Mac, unless it increases the screen size. This doesn’t apply to the Mac mini. Apple has also sold these macs during a global pandemic without increasing the price, so there is no reason to think they would increase the price.
Apple don't change prices between launches - it keeps residual values high for Macs. They've done this for years now. A pandemic was never going to change this but look at the point I will make below about supply issues.

Apple Silicon should in theory be cheaper for Apple to add to the Mini (not paying Intel), this would be more obvious where the higher end Intel stuff is highly inflated in price (look at Xeons in the iMac Pro and Mac Pro) but the i5 in the Mini is a relatively inexpensive desktop part.

Where Apple need to maintain price points they will probably up the spec and while they can't improve a non-existent screen they can increase the base RAM and storage to match the other M1 Pro SKUs. If they want to make a bit more money out of the high SKUs they only have to bundle in extra storage at Apple prices rather than be seen to be price gouging.

Let's also not forget that new product launch is a good time for Apple to re-align prices (you may or may not remember the controversy over the post Brexit 20% increase in iMac prices in the UK) - they usually look at exchange rates and that has an effect too. With a chip shortage they don't have to accept their usual lower profit margin for the Mini unless they are going to intentionally constrain supply to ensure that the more profitable SKUs don't get starved.

At the moment the M1 Pro and Max SKUs are weeks away on the online store - effectively making basic SKUs BTO - my prediction is that supply of minis will be constrained for the foreseeable not long after launch.
 
Apple don't change prices between launches
I was never talking about the price between launches. I'm talking about the price at launch.

Where Apple need to maintain price points they will probably up the spec and while they can't improve a non-existent screen they can increase the base RAM and storage to match the other M1 Pro SKUs.
The M1 Pro model will likely replace the intel i5 Mac mini: this i5 model currently comes with 8GB of ram, and a 512GB SSD. The M1 Pro models all start at 16GB of ram, but still have 512GB SSD as the base. We know Apple charges $200 for every 8GB of ram, so all we need to do is add an extra $200 to the base price ($1,099) of the current i5 SKU model to get us to 16GB of ram. This lands us at the $1,299 price for an M1 Pro Mac mini with 16GB of ram and 512GB of storage.

Let's also not forget that new product launch is a good time for Apple to re-align prices (you may or may not remember the controversy over the post Brexit 20% increase in iMac prices in the UK) - they usually look at exchange rates and that has an effect too.
All of this would also apply to the M1 Air, Pro, mini, as well as the 16" Macbook Pro, yet none of these macs saw a price increase at launch. In the US, they all retained the same price as the previous year's intel mac. In fact, the M1 Mac mini was the only Mac in recent history to see a price decrease of $100. As I said before, the only time Apple has increased Mac prices in the last few years (in the US) was when they increased the screen size of a product - which makes sense as the cost of the screen is higher. This doesn't apply to the Mac mini, so there is no precedent in recent history to suggest Apple is going to raise prices for the mini.

With a chip shortage they don't have to accept their usual lower profit margin for the Mini unless they are going to intentionally constrain supply to ensure that the more profitable SKUs don't get starved.

Every Apple silicon mac launched so far has been launched during the chip shortages and supply chain issues, which again did not see price increases outside of screen size. The Mac mini is no different. Do you have numbers to show Apple makes less money off the Mini?
 
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