I have a feeling that this year the iPad won't sell out like it did for the iPad and iPad 2. Here are the potential reasons why. 1. The economy is still doing terrible. Real unemployment is somewhere around 18% and the median income is something like 30k per year. People just don't have the extra income to buy an entertainment item right now. 2. Most people do not know how to sell on craigslist or ebay and so they won't be quick to upgrade to the newest iPad if they already have an iPad or iPad 2. The general computer illiterate populace tends to upgrade computers when their computer is running "slow" but with the iPad and IOS, this isn't as much of an issue versus computers which can take several minutes to boot up and get programs running if they are older. Just looking at people with iPhone 3g's at the mall can prove that people tend to keep what they have if it is running decent even if it is several years old. 3. The benefits of the iPad HD might not seem significant enough. There also might not be enough of a form factor difference to appeal to those people who like to have a "new" Apple product and show it off. Now to the list of reasons why I think the iPad could sell out and be the hot item of the year. 1. People have been known to throw caution to the wind in terms of saving money. You can see this evidenced by driving by government housing areas and seeing boxes for 46" Led tv's sitting in people's garages or by reading news on personal debt levels. If people want the iPad HD enough they might just use their last bit of money to get it. 2. Tax Return season. There are many people who are getting returns for $500-$3000 just in time to get a brand new iPad. This could be a big possibility. 3. Die Hard Apple Fans and the Apple Movement. Apple has succeeded in becoming the number 1 computer company in the World with a valuation higher than some small countries. There are millions of fans who absolutely have to get the newest product. 4. With tough times comes smart minded individuals. People who are out of work and needing some extra cash might take this as an opportunity to make some reselling. Hey if you dont have a job, you can camp out for a couple days to make a few hundred bucks. These are my thoughts on the situation. I feel it could go either way. What do you think?