http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/01/19/moores-law-retina-display
http://apenwarr.ca/log/?m=201101#19
Here's why this guy's argument is wrong. (which may possibly be not surprising at all as though he mentions that "I have some actual knowledge (from a brief foray into working at a semiconductor company, some time ago)", he doesn't say in what capacity he worked at that semiconductor company. He might have worked as a janitor.)
Since when Moore's law applied to displays?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
"The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras."
CPUs, memory, digital cameras - but NOT mainstream DISPLAYS! For many years, 0.28mm pitch (~90dpi) remained standard, some more expensive monitors then had 0.25 or 0.22mm pitch (115dpi), iMac 27" still has 0.23mm pitch, MacBook Air 11.6" 2010's display has the smallest pixels of all Apple computers - 0.19mm.
So in the last 15 years or so, pixel density for mainstream displays hasn't changed much. While if you believe this semiconductor janitor and his "Display Moore's Law", pixels would have shrunk from 0.28mm to about 0.0085mm since then (15 years divided by 1.5 doubling cycle = 10 cycles, so Moore's factor is 2^10 = 1024, so linear pixel density factor is then about 33x) and we all are now sitting in front of our beautiful 26,400x19,800 displays (and that's starting from modest 800x600 display, times 33).
Instead, displays have been growing in size while keeping the pixel size about the same or only slightly decreasing. The progress in displays, like anything else, is driven by demand and capability of current video cards, so instead of making displays increasingly dense, they are getting bigger in terms of total pixel count, but still in line with what most mainstream video cards can handle.
When the large touch screen mobile war started, pixel sizes "magically" jumped from 0.22-0.28mm to 0.155mm (iPhones 2G to 3Gs) and even to 0.078mm (iPhone 4) with no regard to Moore's law! How come?! Well, the industry was long able to produce such small pixels, it is just there was not enough demand for such displays. Nobody wants to see their 16x16 pixels icons in Windows toolbars be 1.25x1.25mm dots on such a screen. Yep, an icon 1/20th of an inch in size - will you see anything on it unless you use a loupe?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_displays_by_pixel_density
iPad 2 at 2048x1536 will have pixel pitch of 0.096mm. We know from iPhone 4 that this pitch is technologically achievable, so why wouldn't be possible to make a 9.7" display with it?
Oh, defects. Dead pixels. But how come Sony Vaio P Series (which is now several years old) has an 8" screen with 0.11mm pixels and dead pixels are not a problem? I'm sure there are millions of people carrying iPhone 4 who don't realize they have a few dead pixels. Why? Because with such tiny pixels, it's almost impossible for average human who's not specifically looking for them, to see them. Think about it: if 4 dead pixels on iPhone 4 magically happened to be next to each other, they'll be at most as much visible as 1 dead pixel on iPhone 2-3. Since for given brightness of the screen, with 4x pixels of the retina display, each pixel has to emit 1/4th of the light emitted by "non-retina" pixel, one dead pixel on retina display is so faint and so tiny that you probably need special equipment to see it.
So, a few dead pixels on a 2048x1536 9.7" displays won't be noticeable by 99.9% of users, only 0.01% (anal-retentive ones) will see them using expensive electron-scanning microscopes
The technology to have 2048x1536 9.7" display is here, no need to wait for superconductor janitor's Moore's law. The leaked $100 increase in iPad's price, 2x resolution of artwork in applications, parts' vendor's display leak, and other rumors all point to the same conclusion: iPad 2 will have 2048x1536 display.
It has to - to kill competition DOA. It cannot stay at 1024x768, period! You stand still, you die in this market. Processor speed/RAM size improvements are not enough to survive.
It will be stunning. It will be nothing like you've seen before. With Apple's huge cash reserve to secure the manufacturing of such display at affordable price, they'll have the market all to themselves for another couple of years.
iPad 2 will be TRULY a magical and revolutionary product at an unbelievable price.
http://apenwarr.ca/log/?m=201101#19
Here's why this guy's argument is wrong. (which may possibly be not surprising at all as though he mentions that "I have some actual knowledge (from a brief foray into working at a semiconductor company, some time ago)", he doesn't say in what capacity he worked at that semiconductor company. He might have worked as a janitor.)
Since when Moore's law applied to displays?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
"The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras."
CPUs, memory, digital cameras - but NOT mainstream DISPLAYS! For many years, 0.28mm pitch (~90dpi) remained standard, some more expensive monitors then had 0.25 or 0.22mm pitch (115dpi), iMac 27" still has 0.23mm pitch, MacBook Air 11.6" 2010's display has the smallest pixels of all Apple computers - 0.19mm.
So in the last 15 years or so, pixel density for mainstream displays hasn't changed much. While if you believe this semiconductor janitor and his "Display Moore's Law", pixels would have shrunk from 0.28mm to about 0.0085mm since then (15 years divided by 1.5 doubling cycle = 10 cycles, so Moore's factor is 2^10 = 1024, so linear pixel density factor is then about 33x) and we all are now sitting in front of our beautiful 26,400x19,800 displays (and that's starting from modest 800x600 display, times 33).
Instead, displays have been growing in size while keeping the pixel size about the same or only slightly decreasing. The progress in displays, like anything else, is driven by demand and capability of current video cards, so instead of making displays increasingly dense, they are getting bigger in terms of total pixel count, but still in line with what most mainstream video cards can handle.
When the large touch screen mobile war started, pixel sizes "magically" jumped from 0.22-0.28mm to 0.155mm (iPhones 2G to 3Gs) and even to 0.078mm (iPhone 4) with no regard to Moore's law! How come?! Well, the industry was long able to produce such small pixels, it is just there was not enough demand for such displays. Nobody wants to see their 16x16 pixels icons in Windows toolbars be 1.25x1.25mm dots on such a screen. Yep, an icon 1/20th of an inch in size - will you see anything on it unless you use a loupe?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_displays_by_pixel_density
iPad 2 at 2048x1536 will have pixel pitch of 0.096mm. We know from iPhone 4 that this pitch is technologically achievable, so why wouldn't be possible to make a 9.7" display with it?
Oh, defects. Dead pixels. But how come Sony Vaio P Series (which is now several years old) has an 8" screen with 0.11mm pixels and dead pixels are not a problem? I'm sure there are millions of people carrying iPhone 4 who don't realize they have a few dead pixels. Why? Because with such tiny pixels, it's almost impossible for average human who's not specifically looking for them, to see them. Think about it: if 4 dead pixels on iPhone 4 magically happened to be next to each other, they'll be at most as much visible as 1 dead pixel on iPhone 2-3. Since for given brightness of the screen, with 4x pixels of the retina display, each pixel has to emit 1/4th of the light emitted by "non-retina" pixel, one dead pixel on retina display is so faint and so tiny that you probably need special equipment to see it.
So, a few dead pixels on a 2048x1536 9.7" displays won't be noticeable by 99.9% of users, only 0.01% (anal-retentive ones) will see them using expensive electron-scanning microscopes
The technology to have 2048x1536 9.7" display is here, no need to wait for superconductor janitor's Moore's law. The leaked $100 increase in iPad's price, 2x resolution of artwork in applications, parts' vendor's display leak, and other rumors all point to the same conclusion: iPad 2 will have 2048x1536 display.
It has to - to kill competition DOA. It cannot stay at 1024x768, period! You stand still, you die in this market. Processor speed/RAM size improvements are not enough to survive.
It will be stunning. It will be nothing like you've seen before. With Apple's huge cash reserve to secure the manufacturing of such display at affordable price, they'll have the market all to themselves for another couple of years.
iPad 2 will be TRULY a magical and revolutionary product at an unbelievable price.
